956
FXUS65 KPUB 302023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible into this evening across the southeast plains.

- Thundestorm chances decrease for Sunday through Tuesday with mainly
  isolated thunderstorms possible over the mountain areas.

- Slight uptick in precip chances Wed/Thu with cold front moving
  through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

High res models keep best chances across the southeast plains
through this evening as shortwave trough pushes eastwards into the
central plains.  A few strong storms will be possible, especially
across the far eastern plains where dew points will be a little
higher and CAPE values may approach 1000 J/kg.  Main risks look like
heavy rainfall, localized wind gusts up to 40 mph and lightning,
though some gusts up to 50 mph, and hail up to near 1 inch in
diameter will be possible with the isolated stronger cells near the
KS border.  A few showers main linger near the southern CO border
overnight but overall, decreasing clouds and drying surface dew
points behind the upper wave will allow for a cooler night for most
areas.  High valleys will drop into the 30s for overnight lows
making for a crisp cool night for late summer.

Drier air continues to work in for Sunday with most of the lower
elevations and southeast plains likely to remain dry.  With the
upper ridge transitioning eastward, and some residual moisture
caught in the flow aloft, especially southern areas, there will be
another round of mainly isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
These should stay confined to the mountain areas with weaker storm
strengths given sinificantly less CAPE and shear. High temperatures
warm a few degrees though remain below climatological normals.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S. Mon/Tue, with weak nw flow
aloft bringing drier air into much of CO. Convection looks
rather sparse and limited to mostly the mountains both days,
best chances near the NM border, where some modest low/mid level
moisture begins to sneak northward. Temps Mon/Tue will warm back
toward seasonal levels at most locations, with 80s plains,
mostly 70s valleys, and a mix of high elevation 60s/lower
elevation 70s over the mountains.

Amplified pattern still appears likely to send a cold front
south through the area Wed, while slightly better mid level
moisture works e-ne under the ridge. This should set the stage
for at least a modest increase in shower/thunderstorm chances
Wed/Thu, though latest round of models/ensembles looks drier
than 24 hrs ago. Cooler max temps likely behind the front,
coolest on Thu, though again trend in the models the past 24 hrs
has been slightly warmer, as cool air mass appears to be rather
shallow and retreats quickly eastward late Thu into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Thunderstorms will be an early event for the KCOS and KPUB
terminals this afternoon and will carry a PROB30 starting at 18z
at KCOS and as early as 19z for KPUB. KALS will follow suite but
expect a little later timing there, closer to 21z. Gusty
erratic outflow winds, brief moderate to heavy rainfall and
lightning will be the primary storm risks. Activity should pull
east of the terminals towards 00z to 01z with VFR cigs gradually
breaking and clearing out towards morning. Winds will remain
gusty northerly at KCOS and KPUB becoming thunderstorm outflow
dominated with erratic wind directions through early evening
before decreasing after sunset. KALS will see light winds before
thunderstorm winds impact the terminals during the late
afternoon and early evening, then settle on an easterly
direction through the evening before diminishing overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN