719
FXUS65 KPUB 222318
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and Mountain/Valley snow spreads across the area Sunday into Sunday
  night...with some snow possible along the Palmer Dvd Sunday night.

- Warmer and drier Monday

- Cooler and potentially unsettled Tuesday into Wednesday

- Dry and seasonable Thanksgiving into Saturday, then potential for
  higher impact weather Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest west to
southwest flow aloft across the region, with short wave ridging building
across the Rockies ahead of the next system taking aim on the region
moving onshore across the Southern California Coast. Mostly sunny skies
have helped to warm temperatures into the 50s and lower 60s across the
plains this afternoon, with current reading in the 30s to lower 50s
across the higher terrain.

Despite the Southern California system just starting to move onshore,
latest model data is in good agreement of increasing moisture within
the increasing southerly flow aloft will lead to increasing cloud cover
from west to east through the overnight hours, with snow developing
across the southwest mountains early Sunday morning. The upper level
low remains progged to lift out into the Four Corners region by 18Z
Sunday, with upper difluence and waa spreading precipitation across
the higher terrain through the southeast plains. With the waa within
the southerly flow aloft, snow levels look to rise between 8000-9000
feet through the afternoon, before the upper low pivot`s and redevelops
across the northeast plains through the evening. CAA within the
developing north to northeast flow aloft will help to lower snow levels
through the late afternoon and evening, with the potential for wraparound
snow showers spilling across the Palmer Dvd Sunday evening before
the precipitation shield continues to lift north and east Sunday night.

With that said, winter weather advisories are in place across the
eastern San Juan and La Garita mountains at 2am Sunday and continue
through the day, with 5 to 10 inches of snow expected. We have also
added winter weather advisories for the higher elevations of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains, with 5 to 10 inches of snow possible
as well. Rising snow levels through the day and fast movement of
the system will lead to varying accumulations of 2 to 6 inches across
the rest of the higher terrain, along the potential for a quick few
inches across the San Luis Valley early Sunday morning, within the waa
band of precipitation. QPF across the plains has come down some, with
up to quarter possible, with the fast movement of the system. Will need
to see how the system evolves across the plains into Sunday evening,
for the potential for a quick couple of inches of snow along and south
of the Palmer Dvd as well.

Overnight lows in the 20s and 30s areawide will warm into the 40s
to low 50s across the plains on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 30s
to low 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

By Sunday evening, mid level low will likely be over the greater
Pikes Peak region, and the precip will pivot from the northern
sangres/across Pikes Peak region and then into northeast CO.
By the early morning hours Monday the brunt of the precip will
be out of our region, and moving across NE CO.

Overall, this system is rather potent, but somewhat moisture
starved and is moving relatively quickly. Likewise, precip
amounts will not be all that great, but there will be enough to
warrant winter weather highlights for the San Juans where 5 to
10" is likely. The San Luis Valley and the remainder of the
mountains will likely see snow with this system, but amounts
will be less.

Two areas of concern I have attm will be how much snow will fall
over 1.) the San Luis Valley and 2.) Northern EL Paso county. For
now I have in the weather grids that snow will fall, and I do have
some light accumulations for these two regions, but I am concerned
the snow amounts may not be enough for these two areas.

The next concern will be the colder air that will move into the
region starting Tuesday. The nice mild temperatures of Monday (60s
plains) will be replaced by wind-blown 30s and 40s (plains) for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Although it will be much cooler these two
days it will be dry (except for some snow showers in the c mtns).

From Thanksgiving into Saturday it will be dry and seasonable.

Looking on from Sunday into the following weeks looks quite stormy
over the intermountain region, including Colorado. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 409 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will persist this evening with southeast winds
at KCOS and KPUB around 10 kts gradually decreasing and shifting
from the east to northeast. There is a less than 10 percent
chance of MVFR to IFR cigs/vis with FG developing briefly again
this evening. Odds look lower than last night given lower sfc
dew points and delayed saturation. Will need to monitor
satellite trends again closely. Will introduce a BKN035 layer in
for KCOS until winds make a more concerted shift out of the
northeast around 09z. KALS will stay VFR as mid and high clouds
increase from the south. Showers will push into the San Luis
Valley affecting the terminal around 15z with MVFR to IFR
cigs/vis in -SN during the mid to late morning. Accumulations
should remain under an inch on grassy surfaces. -SHRA will
spread into the KCOS and KPUB TAF sites closer to 18z with cigs
likely to remain in the VFR to high end MVFR category until
southerly winds and better saturation drop cigs into the IFR
category towards or slightly after 00z Mon at the tail end of
the TAF valid period. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for
COZ066-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for
COZ073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT