454
FXUS65 KPUB 122039
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage across the
  mountains and valleys.

- Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage on Thursday
  over much of south central and southeast Colorado, with an
  increased of flash flooding.

- Showers and storms continue to increase in coverage for the
  end of the week and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Main concerns through the period are with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening,
more importantly, on Thursday over much of southern Colorado.
Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Latest radar imagery is depicting only isolated to widely
scattered precip development and this is primarily tied to the
higher terrain at this time. While increasing coverage and even
intensity of showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon, this should stay over and near the higher terrain.
Most of the mountains should observe at least isolated
development, however, think the highest coverage will be across
the central mountains. Greatest height falls and forcing are
occurring in this location, and in a location of higher
instability. Elsewhere, large scale ascent is lower and with low
to mid level focus also lacking. Additionally, guidance shows
dewpoints dropping this afternoon over and near the southeast
mountains, which makes sense given latest satellite imagery
indicating an area of drier air lifting into Colorado at this
time. This is also reflected in latest forecast soundings. The
strongest storms over the central mountains will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall, outflow winds to 50-55 mph, and
frequent lightning.

A front will push south down the plains early this evening,
bringing a period of stronger northerly winds. While the winds
should not be overly strong, would not be surprised to see a
period of winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph for a time. Precip
diminishes this evening through much of Thursday morning,
however, increasing moisture and instability pushing into much
of the area will support additional precip chances on Thursday.
This moisture and instability will occur with stronger large
scale ascent and low to middle focus. Given this occurring,
think most areas over southern Colorado will observe showers and
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings are showing tall moist and
unstable soundings with weak flow in place. This should support
the development of slow moving thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy rainfall. Given the increased potential for this
to occur over the Aspen Acres burn scar, have issued a Flash
Flood Watch for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the long term period, active weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. The favorable monsoon pattern
will continue for the region, with the high pressure remaining
to the southeast, and moist southwesterly flow continuing to
stream over the area. With that said, there may be some wobble
in the location of the high pressure early next week, but model
guidance is in decent agreement with keeping moist flow in
place, leading to better confidence in the forecast. So, with
this pattern in place, daily showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning the main hazards. In addition, flash flooding may
become a concern heading into this period due to both slow
moving thunderstorms and the potential for areas to receive
multiple rounds of heavy rain on different days. Otherwise,
winds are expected to remain light outside of thunderstorms,
with increased cloud cover during the afternoon and evening
hours. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will cool to
around and below seasonal values for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather are anticipated this
forecast period for all of the terminals. Afternoon and early
shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated, however, the
highest coverage of development will stay over and near the
higher terrain. Given the low chance that a few storms do make
it off of the mountains this afternoon, have maintained the
prob30 at all sites.

The main impacts with winds this period will be early this
evening for COS and PUB as a fairly strong front pushes south
over the plains. Made little changes to the wind shift, though
did bump the shift by an hour for COS and did increase the
speeds and gusts by a couple of knots. Will keep an eye on this
shift, as a small window of higher speeds and gusts will be
possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ