590
FXUS65 KPUB 162053
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely late this afternoon into this evening
  across the I-25 corridor and plains, with strong winds, large
  hail and locally heavy rainfall the primary hazards.

- Storms likely again Thursday with heavy rainfall possible, while
  severe threat looks lower.

- Best chance of precip during the extended period will be over the
  mtns and valleys.

- Temps generally 4 to 8 degrees above normal region-wide in the
  extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Storms developing on schedule this afternoon, as deep instability
pools along and east of the mountains, where CAPE values have risen
into the 1000-2000 J/KG range. Deep layer shear has increased as
well, as surface winds have turned sely and strengthened, with 0-6km
values in the 40-45 kt range. With upper forcing provided by
trailing end of central plains short wave and right rear quad of
upper jet exiting the Rockies, expect a risk of severe storms and
local flash flooding from late afternoon into the evening, starting
first in El Paso County, then expanding south and east by evening.
Particularly concerned about severe storms/heavy rain in the Ark
Valley from Pueblo (21z t/td 86f/58f) eastward, where upper 50
to mid 60 dewpoints are pooling. Severe watch just issued for
all I-25 corridor/eastern plains, running til 04z, as storms
will likely linger past sunset on the plains given amount of
instability present, before activity fades away after midnight.

Thursday, plentiful moisture in place again, and expect fairly
widespread afternoon convection over the mountains, spreading across
the plains from late afternoon into the evening. While instability
in the 1k-2k J/KG range will support strong storms, main ingredient
lacking for severe storms will be wind shear, as 0-6km bulk shear
falls into the 15-25 kt range as both low level sely and mid level
wly winds weaken. Main threat Thu will be locally heavy rain/flash
flooding, with at least some data pointing toward the srn
Sangres/Raton Pass area having the greatest chance of heavy rain.
May need a Flood Watch at some point for some srn zones, though will
hold off this cycle and let later shifts evaluate today`s heavy
rainfall before issuing anything. Clouds/precip will hold max temps
down, with max temps well below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Generally for this long term period, a large broad area of high
pressure at mid levels will continue over the central and eastern
part of the CONUS while a broad area of lower pressure will continue
just off the west coast. Zonal flow will continue north of these
centers of high and low pressure across the Canadian/US border.
Occasional subtle disturbances will move through this zonal
flow allowing meager frontal intrusions to move across the
region. Additionally, with the low off the west coast and the
higher pressure over the central CONUS, a modest monsoon pattern
will continue over the SW CONUS during this period.

With the above pattern in place, the overall best chance of precip
over the region this week into next weekend will be over the mtns
and valleys. Temps overall will be on a slow warming trend this
weekend into early next week, then a slight cooling by mid week next
week. The overall best chance of widespread monsoon moisture over
the higher terrain will be Friday, Saturday and into Sunday with
more scattered pops over the higher terrain later in the period.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Tsra likely at all taf sites the afternoon/early this evening
from 22z-02z, with vcsh lingering at KPUB and KCOS potentially
as late as 05z. Large hail (quarter to half dollar size) and
strong winds (gusts 50kts plus) possible with storms at KPUB
and KCOS, while main hazard with storms at KALS will be gusty
outflow winds (gusts 40-50 kts). Low potential for MVFR/brief
IFR stratus/fog at KCOS and KPUB 09z-15z Thu morning,
especially if significant precip occurs Wed night. Won`t add to
the taf at this point, and will await convective developments
before including.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN