502
FXUS65 KPUB 111944 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
144 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory for eastern Fremont, El Paso, and Pueblo
  through 7 pm, with scattered mainly high based convection
  through the evening.

- A tad cooler Wednesday, with increasing available "monsoon"
  moisture bringing increased coverage of thunderstorms and wetting
  rains especially over and near the higher terrain.

- Cooling trend to at and slightly below seasonal temperatures
  into the weekend, along with widespread coverage of daily
  storms leading to increasing flash flooding concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has the center
of a large upper high near the Four Corners region keeping modest
westerly steering flow in place across the Central Rockies. GOES
Blended Total Water Vapor imagery has PWATS between 90-110 percent
of normal across the region, with an increased subtropical moisture
plume stretching from Old Mexico into the Desert Southwest and Great
Basin at this time. Temperatures have warmed into the 90s across the
plains as of noon, with 60s, 70s and 80s being realized across the
higher terrain, where a few showers and a storm have already developed.

For the rest of today and into tonight, model soundings continue to
indicate high based convection, especially across the adjacent
plains, where dew pts have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s,
with more wetting rains remaining possible over the higher terrain,
especially along and west of the ContDvd. This supports the potential
for gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph with storms, especially across
the plains, where DCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg remains progged through
the afternoon. We have also added slight pops across the far southeast
plains, with the potential for convection developing along an evident
thermal trough through the late afternoon and early evening. Convection
winds down through the evening, however, could continue to see showers
into the overnight hours along and west of the Contdvd, as the abundant
atmospheric moisture across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin
continues into western Colorado.

The upper high continues to slide south and east into the Southern
Rockies on Wednesday, leading to more available moisture working into
the region within more west to southwest flow aloft. The increased
moisture, working with strong summer solar heating, leads to scattered
to numerous showers and storms developing across the higher terrain
Wednesday afternoon, with storms spreading east northeast across the
high mountain valleys and adjacent plains through the afternoon and
evening hours. Storms, especially across the higher terrain, to be
more efficient rainmakers, leading to the potential for heavy rain
and localized flooding, however, there will be enough steering flow
to keep storms moving, and will not issue any flash flood products
at this time. Slight cooling aloft, from west to east, and increased
coverage of convection will lead to temperatures cooler than the
past several days, though will still warm into the lower 100s across
the far southeast plains on Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Latest model data continues to support a cooling and wetting trend
across all of south central and southeast Colorado through the end
of week and into the weekend, as the upper high slides into Southern
High Plains, as an upper trough develops across the West Coast. This
set up is a classic monsoonal pattern for Colorado, with abundant
moisture embedded within modest southwest flow aloft through the
weekend. The available moisture, combined with upslope flow across
the plains behind a passing front across the plains on Thursday,
will bring temperatures back down to at and even slightly below
seasonal levels through the weekend, with expected daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. We will likely need to issue flash
flood watches for area burn scars for Thursday, and additional
flood products for burn scars and other areas into the weekend,
depending on coverage of heavy rain and how saturated soils may
become. Those living in and near the recent burn areas should
remain weather through the weekend.

Into early next week, models support the upper high building back
across the Southern Rockies, leading to slight warming within more
westerly flow across the region. However, models continue to support
ample moisture within the westerly flow, for continued good coverage
of daily showers and storms areawide into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over
the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and storms will once again
develop over the higher terrain through the afternoon, and push
east across the adjacent plains through the late afternoon and
evening hours. Storms to be mainly high based, with gusty
outflow winds up to 45kts and lightning being the main threats
to the terminals. With that said, will maintain prob30 groups
at all three terminals mainly between 22Z-02Z. Winds at the
terminals to be generally diurnally driven, save for said
gusty outflow boundaries. Convective cloud cover to slowly
diminish through the overnight hours. Mtn storms to develop
once again at the tail end of the this taf period (18Z) Wed.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW