304
FXUS65 KPUB 282018
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered high based showers/storms producing
  gusty outflow winds through the evening and again tomorrow.

- Hot temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

- Increasing available moisture through the weekend, leading to
  increasing coverage of daily showers and storms into early next
  week.

- Warmer and drier again later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
west to northwest flow aloft across the region, with the center of
a large upper high in place across northwestern New Mexico at this
time. GOES Blended Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates some
drier air in place across south central and into southeast Colorado,
with another slug of monsoonal moisture in place across the Desert
Southwest and into the Great Basin region at this time.

Latest model data supports a slightly better coverage of high
based showers and storms developing across the higher terrain than
previous runs, with a better potential for these high based storms
spreading east across immediate adjacent plains and I-25 Corridor
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Sounding data
supports low level moisture and dew pts mixing into the 30s and 40s
across the low elevations (Silvercliffe Airport (KCO8) dew pt is 36F
as of 1230pm). Models also support increasing DCAPE leading to gusty
outflow winds up to 50 mph the main threat from showers and storms
today. While we can`t rule out a stronger storm producing locally
heavy rainfall, the threat for flash flooding will remain low today.
Convection diminishes through the evening with skies clearing slowly
overnight. This, along with lee troughing across the plains, will
lead to warmer overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the
plains, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

West to southwest flow aloft increases through the day tomorrow, as
a broad upper trough across the Pacific Northwest Coast translates
across the Intermountain West. This will bring in better available
moisture into western Colorado, leading to better coverage of
afternoon showers and storms and wetting rains, especially across
the Continental Divide. Further east, isolated to scattered high
based showers and storms remain expected, with gusty outflow winds
remaining the main threat across the eastern mountains and plains.
Warm air aloft and downslope flow will help boost temperatures
tomorrow, with highs in the 90s to lower 100s expected across the
plains (warmest across the lower Arkansas River Valley) with highs
in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Temperatures will be
near, but thinking just shy of records, with current records for
August 29th being 87F at ALS in 2019, 2013 and 1990, 95F at COS
in 2019, and 102F at PUB in 1970.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Moderate west to southwest flow aloft continues Sunday and Monday,
as the PACNW trough continues to translate east across the Northern
Tier. This will allow for monsoonal moisture to continue to increase
across the Central Rockies, with scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected across the higher terrain both days, especially
along and west of the ContDvd. Further east, the best coverage of
wetting rains will be on Monday, with expected increasing low level
moisture behind the passing upper systems frontal boundary Sunday
night. With the moderate westerly flow aloft, storms will be moving,
and likely limiting flash flooding threat, save for area burn scars.
Temperatures to remain above seasonal levels on Sunday, though are
expected to be slightly cooler than Saturday, with temperatures
cooling back to near seasonal levels for Monday.

A warming trend remains in the offing from Tuesday through the end
of the next week, as upper high pressure across the Southern High
Plains slowly retrogrades back across the Rockies. Models continue
to differ on how much moisture is advected across the region within
the continued west to southwest flow aloft, with the latest NBM data
only keeping isolated to scattered pops across the higher terrain.
Will also need to watch for potential for critical fire weather
conditions, with said moderate west to southwest flow pattern. Time
will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Latest high res model data supports a little better
coverage of showers and storms spreading off the higher terrain
and spreading across the immediate adjacent plains this afternoon
and evening. Storms will be much high based than previous days,
with gusty outflow winds up to 45kts the main threat at the
terminals, in which we added prob30 groups from 21Z-01Z. Skies
slowly clear overnight with mainly light diurnal wind regimes
expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW