539
FXUS65 KPUB 081752
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions over Pueblo, Fremont, and the lower
  elevations of Huerfano County this afternoon and evening

- Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon over the far
  eastern plains

- Hot temperatures - right around 10F above average for this
  time of year

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another hot day for southern Colorado with a mixture of fire weather
over the western 2/3s of the CWA with a risk for severe weather of
the eastern 1/3. First, let`s talk about about the severe weather
first.

Currently the northeastern plains of Colorado have a Marginal and
Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon, with general
thunder over the southeastern plains. I do believe that there is the
opportunity for a few severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains.
All guidance has a wave moving over the region during the early
afternoon, sparking thunderstorms over the mountains creating weaker
thunderstorm over the southern plains with most of the storms
struggling over the lower dew point air across the I-25 Corridor.
However, a few models (RRFS A, WRF-ARW2, HRRR) have a few storms
developing. The interesting part about the HRRR is that it really
tries to have a larger storm develop, but it seems like it runs into
some weak inhibitions aloft. The NAMNEST doesn`t have convection
developing, but looking at the sounding, there really isn`t a reason
it shouldn`t convect. So my overall forecast is that we`ll get a
storm or two that becomes severe between the hours of 2- 7PM over
the far eastern plains, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and Baca Counties.
MUCAPE values are between 1500-2500 J/kg, sfc-6km bulk shear values
around 40-45kts, and there is a fairly straight hodograph. I think
if we can convect in the eastern plains atmosphere a splitting
supercell is possible. Again, if the storms develop, 1-2" hail, 60
to 70 MPH winds are possible, and I cannot rule out a tornado.

Meteorological fire weather will develop over the western 2/3s of
the CWA, but fuel limitations will keep us only issuing for Fremont
and the lower elevations of Pueblo and Fremont Counties. Wind gusts
up to 30 MPH and RH values less than 15% are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday`s fire weather concerns look a little less concerning that
previous forecasts as a the latest data has slug of moisture
propagate from the SW over the region. RH values increase from below
15% to ~20%. We`ll keep the Fire Weather Watch up for now, but if
trends continue, we may remove that highlight. With the uptick in
moisture, there may be a severe weather risk on Tuesday instead of
fire weather. Around 1000-1500 J/kg is being resolved over the
southeastern corner of the state.

Wednesday is still on track with critical fire weather conditions in
the forecast and I am not as convinced for Thursday, since a cold
front is forecast to pass over the region and post frontal NE winds
form - this isn`t the best fire weather set-up, however, there have
been times in similar set-ups where the air is still dry behind the
cold front in the warm season, just not very common. We`ve issues a
Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and evening over the I-25
Corridor.

A high pressure begins to build to the south which puts a bit of
enhanced winds from SW to the NE over Colorado advecting a bit of
that eastern Pacific moisture our way, which will present shower and
thunderstorm opportunities both on Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Generally quiet across the terminals this forecast period, with
VFR conditions prevailing. Thunderstorm activity this afternoon
into the evening still looks to remain to the north of both COS
and PUB, with ALS not anticipated to observe any precip. It
does look like low chances for showers return to ALS late in the
period, Tuesday morning. With chances low, have left out of the
taf at this time. Winds will be gusty this period at all sites,
with ALS observing a south southwest wind/gusts this afternoon
and again late Tuesday morning. Similar trends for COS and PUB,
though the direction will be more south to southeast at these
sites. Have maintained a wind shift to the northeast for both
COS and PUB later this evening given a likely outflow boundary
that will push across the terminals. Still monitoring the low
chance for MVFR ceilings moving over both COS and PUB later
tonight, but with chances still on the low side, have not added
them to the forecast quite yet.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-228-
229.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ222-228>231-234-235.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ222-228>231-234-236.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ