883
FXUS65 KPUB 311858
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1258 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances and intensity continue to decrease
  through the rest of the Holiday Weekend.

- Drier and warmer Tue, with mainly isolated thunderstorms
  over the mountains.

- Slight uptick in precip chances Wed/Wed night with cold front
  moving through the region, then return to drier conditions
  possible Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
northwest flow aloft across the region at this time, with upper
level ridging building across the Southern Rockies into the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin, while short wave energy digs down the
backside of the ridge across the Upper Midwest and Northern High
Plains. Water vapor imagery is also indicating drier air embedded
within the northwest flow aloft, with GOES Blended Total Water Vapor
imagery indicating PWATS of 50 to 75 percent of normal across
western Colorado at this time, with PWATs running around 100-120
percent of normal across southeastern Colorado. Satellite imagery
and regional radars as of 1 am are indicating convection has pushed
south and east into northeastern New Mexico and northwestern
Oklahoma, with some lingering clouds across the Southern Mtns and
the San Luis Valley at this time.

Latest model data continues to support drier air working into the
region through rest of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, with flow aloft
becoming more northerly through the day Monday. This will lead to
isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain, with the greatest
coverage expected across the Southern mountains both today and Monday.
With less available moisture, cape and shear, storm intensity will also
lessen. Model soundings are indicating more inverted v profiles also
indicating a lesser heavy rain threat as well. Further east, soundings
are also indicating capped profiles, as temperatures aloft continue to
warm. With less convection and cloud cover, temperatures are expected
to be warmer than yesterday, though still below seasonal levels in the
mid 70s to mid 80s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s across the
higher terrain. Temperatures continue to warm into Monday, with highs
back around seasonal levels in the 80s across the plains and in the
60s and 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Air mass continues to dry out a bit on Tuesday as mid level nly
flow strengthens slightly. Thunderstorms should remain mostly
isolated and limited to over/near the high terrain, best chances
again over the srn Sangres near the NM border. NBM guidance
continues to run a little too high for pops given the pattern,
and trimmed back chances 5-10 percent at many locations, though
won`t be too surprised if we end up with very little storm
activity Tue/Tue evening. Cold front drops south through the
plains on Wed, though model trends over the past couple days
continue to point toward a weaker front, with less cool air and
moisture than previously expected. At this point, will still go
with at least a modest upturn in storm chances Wed
afternoon/evening as front passes, though have to acknowledge
that at least a few ensemble members and the 31/00z run of the
GFS have trended drier with little precip indicated. Increased
mixing with the front will likely offset low level cold
advection during the day Wed, with max temps similar if not a
degf or two warmer than Tue numbers. Model spread increases Thu-
Sat as many models/ensembles are now mainly dry for Thu as any
cool/moist air retreats on the plains. Secondary cold front
possible late Thu into Fri may then ramp up convective chances
into the weekend, with storms aided by potential mid-level
moisture surge as flow takes on a more sw direction.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven. The only minor concern will be for KALS where
there may be some thunder in the area later this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH