572
FXUS65 KPUB 291141
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
441 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures and breezy conditions are likely today.

- Continued cold Sunday into Monday, with snow expected for the
  higher terrain, possibly light snow for the Palmer Divide and
  Raton Mesa region.

- Another storm system Wednesday, but there is a high degree of
  uncertainty with the pattern evolution.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Longwave trough can be seen steadily moving across the region early
this morning, with latest radar imagery showing any snow showers
across southern Colorado staying rather isolated. This will likely
continue if not become even less in coverage through the early
morning hours, as drier air in place really keeps much of any
additional precip development away from the CWA. If any additional
snow showers continue, expect them to be light and mainly confined
to the central mountains as northwest flow persists. While CAA has
occurred for most of the night, main front will push through the
plains over the next several hours. This will turn the low level
winds northerly over the Palmer Divide through 12z and could aid in
some light snow. While this trend is anticipated this morning, again
moisture remains limited along with 700mb flow not really straying
from the northwest to west flow.

The low level stratus over the far eastern plains and even the low
level stratus approaching from the north could provide these low
chances for additional precip development over the plains this
morning. Again, moisture looks to be confined to this low stratus
keeping precip chances low. As CAA persists, the column should be
cold enough for snow as the precip type. However, the thermal
profile briefly may not be cold enough for crystals, with an even
lower chance for light drizzle or possible light freezing drizzle. I
think the chances for light freezing drizzle with any larger impacts
are low at this time, but with some obs to the north indicating
unknown precip at this time, it`s worth keeping a close eye on.
Strong CAA aided by strengthening winds continues through mid
morning, with northerly winds over the plains gusting to 40 to 50
mph hour at times. Winds diminish later this afternoon, though well
below normal temps are anticipated today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Models in good agreement through about Wednesday, before
diverging significantly with the upper pattern. The GFS is more
progressive, while the ECMWF and Canadian solutions cut off an
upper low off southern California. The ICON is somewhere in the
middle, with a slower trough than the GFS.

Sunday...an upper trough is forecast to drop south out of the
Northern Rockies on Sunday, with snow spreading into the
Continental Divide by late morning, and through the afternoon.
Given the northwesterly flow associated with the incoming
trough, areas of the Central Mountains will be orographically
favored through the day. Generally, 1 to 3 inches may be
possible by Sunday afternoon. Widespread cloud cover along with
easterly low level flow will keep temperatures cold across the
Plains. Highs will only reach the lower to mid 30s for most
areas, with a couple of lower 40 degree highs along the
southern I-25 corridor.

Sunday night through Monday...the upper trough will continue to
track south and east across Colorado Sunday night into Monday
morning. Snow looks to be heaviest over the Central Mountains
early, spreading south along the Continental Divide, and Eastern
Mountains overnight into Monday morning. Across the Plains, a
cold front will surge south by Monday morning, with gusty north
winds filling in behind it. As the upper trough continues south
and east, the focus for high elevation snow and lower elevation
rain will shift to the Raton Mesa Region. Downslope effects due
to the north winds will likely keep much of the Plains dry.
There may be a light dusting of snow across the Palmer Divide
Monday morning. Snow to the south will be tricky, as
temperatures rise during the afternoon into the upper 30s.
Temperatures may be just warm enough to prevent much in the way
of snowfall Monday afternoon, except for the higher terrain.
Snow will wind down along the Raton Mesa region by the evening,
clearing overnight.

Tuesday looks like a down day between systems, as the next one
begins to drop south out of the Pacific Northwest. For the most
part, dry conditions are expected through the day, with a few
snow showers moving into the Central Mountains late in the day.
Temperatures will warm in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
Plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...much disagreement between the
various guidance with the handling of the upper system. The GFS
is very progressive, with another round of snow for the area on
Wednesday. The GFS is pretty similar to the Monday system, with
snow over the Mountains, spreading south and east during the
afternoon from the higher terrain into the Palmer Divide and
Raton Mesa. Another cold front will accompany the upper system
as it passes across southern Colorado. Once this system exits
the area, the GFS produces persistent northwest flow, with light
snow showers for the orographically favored Central Mountains
through Saturday.

The ECMWF and Canadian are much different in handling the upper
system. Both are farther west, dropping the system to off the
southern California coast through the end of the week. Overall,
both solutions would be drier, with a few snow showers Wednesday
along the Continental Divide, then pinching the low off the
southern California coast. While both solutions put Colorado
under northwesterly flow, both are also dry Thursday into
Friday. The ICON solution is in the middle, progressive like the
GFS, but slower, with possible impacts on Thursday into Friday
as the upper trough moves across the region.

Overall, the NBM guidance seems similar to the GFS, with a quick
hit of snow for the Mountains, then spreading it south and east
into the Plains Wednesday, and clearing by Thursday. Given the
uncertainty, did not make many changes to the extended guidance.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected this forecast period
across ALS and PUB. While this is also likely for COS, there is
a low to medium chance for a small window of IFR/LIFR ceilings
and light snow at the start of the period. Low level stratus and
some light snow has pushed south over the Palmer Divide at this
time. The setup would suggest this low stratus should stay to
the north of COS, but it`s going to be close given trends on
satellite and radar imagery. Did go ahead and include a tempo
for both the lower ceilings and light snow, but kept the time
frame small as conditions should improve through mid morning.
Then, expect VFR conditions and dry weather to prevail for the
remainder of the forecast.

Winds will be on the lighter side for ALS this period, with a
period of gusty northerly winds likely at COS and PUB through
the morning hours. Strongest gusts in the mid to upper 30kt
range will occur through mid morning, with a diminishing trend
then anticipated after.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ