037
FXUS65 KPUB 142343
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
543 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrives tonight, with much cooler weather expected
  on Tue, especially across the plains.

- Showers and thunderstorms stay mainly over the
  mountains/interior valleys on Tuesday, then increasing shower
  and thunderstorm coverage area-wide from Wednesday into
  Friday, with the potential for flash flooding on area burn
  scars.

- Gradual drying trend then develops over the weekend into
  early next week.

- Temperatures after tomorrow will stay within a few degrees of
  seasonal averages for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Rather sparse coverage of showers/storms so far this afternoon,
though activity was building over the ern San Luis Valley and
srn Sangres as of 130 pm, with some stronger storms on the
plains in Baca County as well. CAMs suggest storm coverage
increases as we go through the afternoon, and a stronger storm
or two looks possible over the far southeast, where CAPE is over
1000 J/KG. Main storm threat will be gusty winds, though
instability may be high enough for at least a low end severe
hail threat near the KS border. Convection fades away across
much of the area late this evening and overnight, though a few
storms may linger into Tue morning, especially back over the
higher terrain along the Continental Divide. Cold front races
quickly through the plains after midnight, with boundary near
the NM border shortly after sunrise. Could see some gusty north
winds of 30-40 mph behind the front, especially over El Paso
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Much cooler Tue behind the front, especially across the plains
where highs will run some 15-20 degf lower than Mon. Less
dramatic cooling over the mountains, were temps will drift
downward only a few degrees. Air mass on the plains will
initially be too cool/stable for much if any convection during
the daytime hours Tue, while over the mountains, showers and
storms will become widespread, especially along the Continental
Divide where mid-level moisture will continue to increase. Some
weakening convection may reach the I-25 Corridor Tue night as
storms drift east off the higher terrain, and  portions of the
plains may see t-storms overnight, as nocturnal convection along
the old frontal boundary over nern NM moves northward in
response to strengthening low level jet.

Still appears strong monsoonal moisture tap develops Wed-Fri,
with trough along the West Coast and upper high over the
southeastern U.S. Showers/thunderstorms will be widespread
across the area each afternoon/evening through the period, with
the heaviest rainfall over the Continental Divide (especially
swrn mts), while the far eastern plains will see lighter
amounts/lower pops. Burn scar flash flood will increase Wed-Fri,
though heaviest rainfall may stay west of the Aspen Acres scar
if model QPF forecasts are correct. May start to see some
drying over the wrn half of the area Sat, with drier air
spreading eastward Sun/Mon, though model spread becomes rather
wide over the weekend into next week, and at least a few
models/ensemble members keep daily precip going into early next
week. Temps will drift back back upward a few degf Wed-Fri,
before potential cold front drops readings back below average
for Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are expected at all the TAF sites
over the next 24 hrs. A stray shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out (less than 20% chance) through 01Z this
evening. Skies are then expected to clear out some this evening
into tonight. A cold front will move through KCOS and KPUB
08z-11z, with winds shifting to the north and gusting around
25-35 kts at both sites through the morning on Tuesday. Winds
then diminish and shift back to the southeast by the afternoon
hours, sustained around 10-14 kt. Additional convection cannot
be ruled out after 22Z Tuesday, but confidence is too low for a
TAF inclusion at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN/NWS Pueblo