696
FXUS65 KPUB 171812
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1212 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Hot again one more day, but it will be a degree or two
   cooler than yesterday.

-  An isolated strong storm possible over the far eastern
   plains once again late this afternoon and early evening.

-  Cold front passage on Tuesday morning, stalling over NM-CO
   border, leading to cooler temperatures north of the front.

-  A severe thunderstorm is unlikely (15%) in the Baca County
   area Tuesday afternoon, but the chance remains.

- Gulf of Mexico moisture reaches southern Colorado on Thursday
  and lasts through Sunday. T-Storms expected during this
  period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to now include all of
south central and southeast Colorado given critical fuels in
place. The already warming temperatures and lowering dew points
will continue this afternoon. The hot and dry conditions along
with the gusty southerly winds will support critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Currently...

An outflow boundary has moved across parts of the southeast CO
plains earlier this evening per radar and wind observations. This
boundary was located from roughly KLIC to east of KPUB down towards
Walsenburg. East of this line rather brisk south to southwest were
noted, with dwpts in the 50s to around 60 over the far eastern
plains. A few isolated storms were noted in far western KS, with
some weak echoes over the far eastern counties.

Today...

The heat will be with us once again, along with breezy to windy
southwest to west winds over the area by afternoon. We will see 100s
once again, but mainly from KLHX east ot the KS border. Max readings
should be about 103 so I do not plan on issuing any heat related
advisories with this package. Overall temps should be about 1 to 3
degrees cooler than max temps yesterday. Once again we may see one
or two thunderstorms over the far eastern plains today, and the
storms could produce locally strong gusty winds, mainly late this
afternoon and early evening over the far eastern plains.

Meteorological conditions favorable for extreme fire behavior will
occur over all of the fcst area today (gusty winds/low RH), However,
where the fuels are critical , a Red Flag Warning is in effect and
where the fuels are not critical, no fire weather highlights are in
place.

Tonight...

Another warm night is in store with the low level jet cranking once
again over the far eastern plains during the early morning hours.
However, relief is in sight as a lee trough will be pushing
across the Palmer Divide prior to sunrise and this system will
be bringing cooler air to the region for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tuesday:

A cold front is set to pass over the region during the beginning of
the short term period (Tuesday at 6am). There is some varying
information about the speed at which the front passes over the
region, with the GFS being the slowest, but hi-rez EC, NAM suite of
products, and the hi-rez CAMs all agreeing that around 6am the front
will pass over the majority of the eastern plains. The front is
expected to stall along the NM/OK-CO border, which means that to the
north of the front cooler temperatures will exist, and to the south
hot temperatures will continue.

Another additional impact that has a low likelihood of occurring is
a supercell developing over the Baca County area on Tuesday
afternoon. Many of the HREF members keeps the severe caliber
convection over Kansas, but one member, the NAMNest, has been
persistent in developing a supercell over Baca County. Just
something to keep an eye out for, but MUCAPE ranges from 2000-3000
J/kg and the 0-6km Bulk Shear values of around 30-40kts.

Wednesday:

A proper post-frontal airmass sets up over southeastern Colorado -
which is very reminiscent of cold season frontal passages. Winds
shift from northerly to east-southeasterly with upslope flow filling
over the plains. Depending on how cold it actually gets, the air
mass may be too stable for thunderstorms on Wednesday, leaving just
rain showers over the far eastern plains. However, the forecast
right now is in the upper 70s for much of the eastern plains, which
presents around 800 J/kg of CAPE, so some rumbles of thunderstorms
are expected in the afternoon across the entire region. Right now
high temperatures over the mountain valleys and the plains are
forecast to be roughly the same with values in the 60s to mid 70s.

Thursday through Sunday:

A surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture will reach southern Colorado and
will remain in place throughout the rest of the forecast period
(Sunday), which will equate in a more active thunderstorm period.
CAPE values will not be impressive, with the max being on Thursday
and Friday and values being around 1000 J/kg and 0-6km Bulk Shear
value ranging around 20 to 25 kts over the plains. So thunderstorms
during this period will be relatively weak, perhaps an isolated
severe thunderstorm. Temperatures during this period will rebound
into the 90s over the plains and the 80s over the mountain valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites
this forecast period. Southerly winds are quickly increasing at
all sites and expect that to continue through the afternoon
hours. These winds will diminish this evening, with an expected
front later tonight into early Tuesday morning shifting the
winds to a northeast to east direction at COS and PUB. VFR
conditions and dry weather will continue even with FROPA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ