897
FXUS65 KPUB 250528
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1028 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning will bring cooler
  temperatures to the Plains, with highs in the 40s.

- Dry weather with near to slightly warmer than normal
  temperatures are expected for Thanksgiving Day and for Friday
  as well.

- Increasing chances for a pattern change through the weekend,
  which will bring much cooler temperatures and chances for
  snow, especially for the mountains, but possibly for the
  plains as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Currently...quiet conditions prevail across southern Colorado
this afternoon, with a few passing high level cirrus clouds.
Winds are light, mainly less than 10 mph across the region.
Temperatures are cool, with 50s for most areas on the Plains,
and 40s over the San Luis Valley.

Tonight and Tuesday...broad northwesterly flow aloft will
prevail through the next 24 hours across southern Colorado. Weak
embedded energy will produce periods of mid and high cloud cover
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Fog will once again be
possible across the San Luis Valley, with visibility dropping to
near 1 mile, especially for northern portions of the valley
where snow remains. Caution is advised with any travel in the
San Luis Valley overnight.  Overnight lows on the Plains will
fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, while the valley falls
into the teens and 20s.

A cold front associated with an upper trough passing well to the
north will drop south across the Plains tomorrow morning. This
will keep cooler air in place across the Plains, with mainly 40s
for highs. Winds could be a bit gusty out east near the Kansas
border in the morning, but should weaken through the afternoon.
No precipitation is forecast with the frontal passage.

There could be a few light snow showers over the Central
Mountains from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon, due to
favorable northwesterly upslope flow. A light dusting of snow
may be possible for west facing slopes north of Cottonwood Pass.
Snow showers look to dissipate by tomorrow afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday Night and Wednesday..

Tuesday night looks to be one of the coldest nights we`ve seen so
far this season, especially for our plains. The Lower Arkansas River
Valley looks to cool down into teens, with low 20s elsewhere on the
plains. Mountain valleys are likely to see lows in the low teens,
which is typical for this time of year. The main difference between
Tuesday and Wednesday is that our flow aloft becomes slightly more
westerly as the northern low pushes east towards the Great Lakes,
which will help to increase downsloping and warming a bit near the
mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, especially for
our mountain adjacent plains, with highs in the low to mid 50s on
Wednesday.

Thanksgiving Day and Friday..

Ridging builds back in across the region for Thursday and Friday,
with highs returning to warmer than normal once again. Guidance is
not nearing as extreme as our last warm spell though, and for now,
highs are likely to remain in the 50s for our plains and 40s for our
mountain valleys, which is only 5 to 10 degrees or so warmer than
normal for most areas. Though precipitation is not expected though
this period and the pattern will be dry overall, critical fire
weather is not expected at this time. Humidity values look to stay
20% range or higher both afternoons, and winds look to stay weak as
well under this pattern.

Saturday Onwards..

Models continue to favor the development of a trough out west
through this weekend, though there seems to be little agreement
about what it might do quite yet. Solutions have changed drastically
in the past 24 hours, which suggests that there is a pattern change
coming from Saturday onwards, but that the extent of our impacts are
mostly still unknown at this stage. It does seem likely that we will
see much cooler temperatures through the weekend, along with the
potential for snow, especially for the high country, but possibly on
the plains as well, as early as Saturday. Please come back for more
details as the system gets closer in time and models come into more
agreement about what impacts we should see here in southeast
Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Cold front Tue morning
will keep wind ne at KCOS and e-ne at KPUB through midday,
before flow swings back to the se after 18z-20z.

At KALS, fog/stratus have briefly cleared as of 05z, though
expect LIFR stratus and fog to return after 07z given low t/td
spread. Fog lifts and VFR conditions return 17z-18z. Winds will
remain light and variable through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN