641
FXUS65 KPUB 022027
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over and near the
  mountains through mid week with temperatures returning to at
  or slightly above normal.

- Brief impulse of monsoon moisture expected late week into
  next weekend with increasing odds for mountain showers and
  thunderstorms along with a brief cool down for the plains on
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A subtle wave in northwest flow aloft combined with surface heating
has triggered a round of showers and thunderstorms across the
mountains this afternoon which will continue to drift southeastward
through the evening as the wave continues across southeast CO.  A
few of these storms will drift into the adjacent valleys and I-25
corridor through the evening. Elevated moisture, high cloud bases,
and dry low levels will keep gusty outflow winds, lightning, and
brief light to moderate rainfall the primary storm risks.  Activity
will diminish into this evening. Clearing skies should allow for
another cool night with lows in the 30s for some of our cold
trapping valleys.

A front will drop through the southeast plains Wednesday morning but
won`t bring much cooling as westerly flow aloft initially will help
boost temperatures quickly in the morning and mixing behind the
front keeps temperatures on the warmer side of climo.  Thunderstorms
look even more sparse for Wednesday and confined to the mountain
areas and we may struggle to keep enough moisture for sufficient
vertical development for high based thunderstorms.  Will keep
isolated pops confined to the mountains for now.  Gusty outflow
winds and virga may be the more likely scenario for now. Otherwise,
temperatures will top out in the lower 90s across the plains which
will be around 3-5 degrees above climo. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Wednesday Night - Thursday: The later part of midweek will bring
relatively quiet weather to much of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Northwesterly flow will be in place as troughing sits to
the east and ridging sits to the west. While no major forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, orographic forcing will be ongoing.
Along with that, modest moisture will remain in place despite the
northerly component to the flow. With terrain forcing, and at least
some moisture in place, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected along the mountains Thursday afternoon, with dry conditions
otherwise. Beyond all of that, winds will continue to remain
relatively light around and less than 10 mph, with mostly clear
skies Wednesday night giving way to partly cloudy skies Thursday
afternoon. Looking at temperatures, while a lack luster cold front
is expected to push southward late Wednesday, much of the area will
remain near to slightly above seasonal values for early September.

Friday - Monday: Heading into the weekend and into early next week,
active weather makes a return across south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow will become messy as waves/disturbances push across
the region through this timeframe, bringing enhanced forcing to the
area. Along with that, an uptick in moisture is anticipated as
southerly to southwesterly flow advect richer moisture into the
region. With the increase in both forcing and moisture, showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day during this period, though with
the greatest coverage remaining along the higher terrain where
forcing will be maximized. Outside of all of that, an increase in
cloud cover is anticipated, with winds continuing to remain
relatively light, though may become breezier across the plains
over the weekend as the waves begin to push over. As for
temperatures, a much more significant cool down is expected as a
stronger cold front pushes southward late Thursday into early
Friday, dropping much of the region to below seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today. A little better
storm coverage late in the day into the early evening will bring
a better probability for gusty outflow wind impacts from -TSRA
at KCOS and KALS. Have introduced a prob30 group for KCOS mainly
to account for the potential for erratic gusty winds up to 35
kts which carries a greater than 30 percent likelihood. Brief
light rain and VFR cigs could also accompany -TSRA today. KPUB
is less likely to be affected as storms should stay closer to
the mountains. Otherwise, winds will be light and diurnally
driven until Wednesday morning when a cold front pushes through
KCOS and KPUB in the 15z-18z timeframe. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT