340
FXUS65 KPUB 170656
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1256 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon activity continues through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will be the primary concern over and near the
mountains.

- Some thunderstorm activity remains possible over the eastern
plains as well through Sunday.

- A bit drier late Saturday into Sunday, before cooler and
  possibly wetter conditions return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently, SE Colorado sits in between two larger systems; a broad
upper low moving down from the Pacific NW, and a region of high
pressure over the southeast states. Aloft, flow in our region
remains out of the southwest, with plenty of monsoon moisture
continuing to funnel into our CWA. Lingering overnight showers will
last into the morning, mainly over our western mountains. By mid-
afternoon, some passing shortwave energy, combined with lee
troughing over the plains, will initiate another round of
thunderstorms over large portions of the area. Again, most activity
will stay over/near the higher terrain, but a few thunderstorms will
move east onto the plains as well by the end of the day. Looking at
potential impacts, our main concern will be heavy rainfall, which
could result in flash flooding over the burn scars, but also across
areas that have received repeated or nonstop precipitation over the
last 24 hours. Given the persistence of showers our west, Flood
Watch over the San Juans remains in place until 12AM Friday. Showers
will continue through most of the night, retreating further west but
not fully ceasing over the San Juans as we head into Friday.
Meanwhile, temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday, with
80s to low-90s over the plains and 70s for the high valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The monsoon plume continues funneling into our area on Friday,
though the best moisture tap will shift a bit further west. Most of
the precipitation for Friday will be over the mountains, with a
continued chance for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Meanwhile,
some afternoon showers and storms will be possible over the plains
as well, but things further east will be more isolated. The
exception to this will be the Palmer Divide, which should see some
more widespread rain thanks to a weak incoming cold front in the
evening. Post-frontal upslope will make the plains a bit more active
on Saturday, with some lingering low-level moisture and instability
through the afternoon hours. Another front will also move through
sometime Saturday evening into early Sunday, which will help keep
convection going over the area.

Meanwhile, drier air will work its way into the mountains as flow
aloft turns westerly on Sunday. The mountains will largely dry out,
leaving some isolated-scattered activity over the plains in the
afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the passing fronts will knock
temperatures down a few degrees for the weekend. By Sunday highs
will largely remain in the 70s over most of our CWA. Heading into
next week, cooler temperatures look to stick around, with the
monsoon moisture returning as an upper low moves onto the CA coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Moist southwest flow will continue across the region through
the upcoming taf period, keeping the best chances of precipitation
over and near the higher terrain, especially along and west of
the ContDvd. COS and PUB will continue to see mainly VFR cigs
through the period, with a tempo -tsra/-shra and brief MVFR
conditions through 09Z, as a weak wave within the flow lifts
north. Generally light diurnal winds at COS and PUB through the
rest of the overnight, with breezy southerly winds developing
aft 18Z, along with chances of -tsra/shra once again through the
rest of the taf period.

Mainly VFR cigs at ALS through the period, with potential for
-tsra/shra and brief MVFR conditions at the terminal through
at least 08Z, with showers expected to continue across the higher
terrain west of the terminal into through the overnight hours.
Breezy southerly winds develop between 14Z-16Z at the terminal
with another round of showers and storms bringing chances of
MVFR conditions through the end of the taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW