910
FXUS65 KPUB 251725
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; locally
  heavy rain possible, especially eastern areas.

- Drier and warmer for Thursday.

- Friday and Saturday look to be slightly above normal for temperatures,
  with chances for isolated showers and storms both afternoons,
  mainly over the eastern mountains and Pikes Peak region.

- Sunday into the middle of next week will bring a period of increasing
  chances for daily showers and storms, along with near to
  below normal temperatures for Monday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Active moisture fetch continues across southern CO with isolated to
scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continuing to stream
up from the south overnight into early morning. Coverage of
precipitation will continue to decrease into the early morning hours
but cloud cover should keep temperatures on the mild side.

The upper trough across the western U.S will de-amplify and shift
eastward into western CO during the afternoon. This will act to
shift the subtropical moisture fetch eastward while also providing
forcing along with afternoon heating to trigger another round of
showers and thunderstorms across southern CO.  Thunderstorms should
get an early start across the mountains given the proximity of the
upper trough, with thunderstorms blossoming around 11 AM to Noon out
west. Meanwhile, residual low level moisture across the plains will
be slow to mix out with southerly flow maintaining dew points in the
lower 50s along the I-25 corridor to lower 60s near the eastern
border. By contrast dew points across the western mountains and
interior valleys will fall off into the 30s during the afternoon.
This will drop precipitable waters back down to near normal across
the western mountains to up to 150% of normal across the southeast
plains. Mean CAPE off HREF suggest up to 1000 J/kg across the
southeast plains, with highest values east of the I-25 corridor. NAM
dew points in the lower 60s could support up to 1500 J/kg. Flow
aloft weakens, especially across southern areas, however deep layer
shears around 40 kts may be present across western and northern
parts of the area which may help support a near severe storm or two.
Hail up to near 1 inch in diameter and localized gusts up to 60 mph
will be possible with the stronger storm cells. Main concerns though
will be heavy rainfall and lightning, especially across the eastern
half of the area where richer moisture will be in place.
Thunderstorms will roll off the mountains into the southeast plains
between 2 PM and 10 PM before diminishing across the southeast
plains by 11 PM as drier air works in from the west.  Low
temperatures out west will be cooler tonight for some of our colder
valley locations due to drier dew points and clearing skies. The
upper Rio Grande around Creede and upper Arkansas around Leadville
will see low temperatures dropping back down into the 30s.

Thursday will be drier still as the flow aloft becomes more westerly
behind the departing upper trough. There will still be sufficient
residual moisture in place for isolated afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms across the southeast mountains and plains where dew
points in the 40s and lower 50s will support some high based
thunderstorms.  But these will be weaker gusty wind makers as
soundings take on more inverted V structures.  Some small hail and
brief moderate rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms
near the KS border where CAPE up to 1000 J/kg may be present.
Overall expect a drying and warming trend with temperatures
returning to near normal. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Thursday Night Through Saturday..

Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the early evening hours of
Thursday on our far eastern plains, with all areas clearing from
west to east before midnight or so at the latest. Overnight lows
look to be near normal, cooling into the 50s and low 60s across the
plains, and 40s for mountain valleys. Our drying trend continues
into Friday and Saturday, as broad ridging gradually tries to build
in over the southern CONUS. This setup will keep isolated pops for
both days mainly focused over the eastern mountains and Pikes Peak
region. Minimum relative humidity values also look to fall down into
the low to mid teens both afternoons, though weak winds will help to
keep any critical fire weather concerns subdued. Daytime high
temperatures return to above normal through this period, as weak
zonal flow sets in over the region. Both days are likely to be
around 3 to 5 degrees above normal, with temperatures in the upper
80s to mid 90s on the plains, and mid 80s over mountain valleys.

Sunday Onwards..

Models build in messy high pressure over the Four Corners region for
Sunday into Monday, dragging a cold front across our area around
this timeframe as well. Depending on timing of the front, there will
likely be a cool down heading into early next week. Current model
solutions point towards another day of near to slightly above normal
temperatures for Sunday, with a drop back to below normal for Monday
and Tuesday. We look to remain in northwest flow on the frontside of
the area of high pressure for a few days, bringing increasing
chances for daily widespread showers and storms for the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

KALS...scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across the San Luis Valley this afternoon, with a low
probability of one impacting the terminal. Gusty outflow winds
and briefly reduced CIGS and VIS would accompany any convection
that moves across the terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period.

KCOS...increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon at the terminal, mainly after 21-22z. Gusty outflow
winds, reduced VIS and CIGS are expected with any thunderstorms
that move across the terminal. Gusty outflow winds will continue
into this evening, dissipating overnight. VFR conditions are
expected into Thursday morning.

KPUB...a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the
terminal this afternoon, with the heaviest activity to the
north. Gusty outflow winds, reduced VIS and CIGS will accompany
any storms that do impact the terminal. Gusty northerly winds
will prevail this evening, dissipating overnight into Thursday
morning.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY