453
FXUS65 KPUB 080701
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
101 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An uptick in shower and storm coverage across the Southeast Mtns
  and plains through Wednesday, leading to the potential for heavy
  rain and low threat of flash flooding for the Aspen Acres burn area.

- Warming and drying trend for Thursday and Friday, with spotty
  critical fire weather conditions developing over and near the
  higher terrain.

- Up and down weather pattern for the weekend into early next
  week, as a series of passing weather systems brings cooler and
  then warmer temperatures. along with chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate
southwest flow aloft in place across the region, with the center of
a large upper high across the Southern High Plains as an embedded
shortwave is translating across the Intermountain West and into the
Northern Rockies at this time. GOES Water vapor and Blended Total
Water Vapor imagery indicates ample subtropical/monsoonal moisture
in place, with PWATS running from 150 to 175 percent of normal
across the Desert SW, through the Southern Rockies and into South
Central and Southeast Colorado at this time. With the moisture in
place, regional radars continue to indicate scattered showers and
few embedded thunderstorms, translating out across the southeast
plains early this morning, with the Northern Rockies passing upper
waves associated cold front pushing south and west across the
northeastern Colorado at this time.

For today and tonight, upper level flow becomes more westerly with
another embedded wave progged to translate across the Intermountain
West through the day, which continues across the Northern Rockies
into tonight. The ample monsoonal moisture in place, along with
increased low level moisture with low level upslope flow behind
said passing front across the plains, will lead to better coverage
of afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially across the
Pikes Peak region and the Southeast mountains and Raton Mesa, where
latest higher res model data supports storm development from the
late afternoon and evening. Storms continue out across the far
southeast plains from the late evening before pushing into western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. With the ample moisture, progged CAPE
up to 1000 j/kg across the lower eastern slopes into the I-25 Corridor,
and up to 1500 j/kg across the far southeast plains, and increased shear,
could storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, with an increased
threat of flash flooding, especially across the Aspen Acres burn area.
However, with the moderate flow aloft, storms will be moving, and with
the best coverage of storms expected to be north and south of the burn
area, we have decided against issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen
Acres burn scar at this time. Needless to say, we will need to continue
to monitor later model data and radar trends, with later shifts possibly
issuing a flood products for the Aspen Acres burn area. We also can`t rule
out a few strong to marginally severe storms producing gusty outflows of
50 to 60 mph and hail to near an inch in diameter, especially across the
Raton Mesa and far southeast plains. With said passing front and better
coverage of showers and storms, temperatures will be cooler than the past
few days but still look to be slightly above seasonal norms, with highs
in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, along with 60s and 70s
across the higher terrain and into the 80s across the high mountain
valleys, with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s across the
plains, and mainly in the 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Moderate west to northwest flow remains progged across the region
for Wednesday through Friday, as upper level ridging builds back
across the Southern Rockies and several embedded waves translate
through the stronger westerly flow aloft across the Northern Tier.
Model data supports drier air starting to filter across western
Colorado and into south central Colorado on Wednesday, with
another secondary cold front pushing across the eastern plains
early Wednesday, keeping enough low level moisture in place for
scattered showers and storms across the southeast mountains
Wednesday afternoon, with storms spreading east across the far
southeast plains once again through Wednesday night. Will again
have to watch for coverage and intensity of storms around the
Aspen Acres burn area for possible flash flooding. For Thursday, and
into Friday, the much drier continues to work into the Rockies,
leading to only a few possible showers and storms across the far
southeast plains on Thursday, and mainly dry conditions areawide
on Friday. The dry and breezy westerly flow will also develop spotty
meteorological critical fire weather conditions across portions of
the Central Mtns on Thursday, which continue and spread east into
the mid Arkansas River Valley and portions of the I-25 Corridor on
Friday. As for temperatures, Wednesday looks to be the coolest day
of the week, with highs mainly in the 80s across the plains, with
60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Temperatures warm back
into the 90s across the plains by Friday.

For Saturday and into early next week, models continue to indicate
differences in timing and location of occasional passing wave within
the moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across the Northern Tier.
This will bring in periods of moisture and cooler temperatures with
possible fronts across the Plains on Saturday and again on Monday.
Otherwise, there looks to be another influx of subtropical moisture
across the Desert SW into western Colorado, leading to chances of
of daily showers and storms, especially over the higher terrain
along the Continental Divide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR cigs will persist overnight with -SHRA possible at times.
Best chance will be at KCOS overnight as a cool front pushes
southward bringing some enhanced northerly winds into the area
after 08z. Otherwise, winds will swing around from the east to
southeast at KCOS and KPUB by afternoon and from the south to
southwest at KALS at around 10-15 kts. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains during the
afternoon and push off into the adjacent plains/valleys after
23z. The best chance for -TSRA on station will be at KPUB and
KCOS and will carry a Prob30 for both with gusty outflow winds
up to 35 kts possible. Some brief MVFR vis with localized +RA
could accompany the stronger storms. These will push east of the
KCOS and KPUB terminals by 02-04z. Odds for -SHRA or -TSRA at
KALS looks too low at this point to include in the TAFs but this
will be monitored closely with future forecast packages. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT