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FXUS65 KPUB 021742
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over
  and near the higher terrain through mid week with temperatures
  at to slightly above early fall levels.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in
  coverage over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate north to northwest flow aloft across the region, with upper
level ridging in place across the Desert Southwest into the Great
Basin and Intermountain West. GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery
has PWATS of 50-90 percent of normal across south central and southeast
Colorado this morning, with a slight increase in available moisture
noted across the Great Basin and Intermountain West at this time.
Satellite imagery and regional radars as of 1 am are indicating
some lingering clouds across the Southern Mtns and the San Luis
Valley at this time.

For today and tonight, latest model data supports flow aloft becoming
more west to northwest as the upper high slowly builds east, allowing
for slightly more available moisture to move across the Central Rockies
with HREF data indicating mean CAPE of 400-900 j/kg over and near the
higher terrain this afternoon. This, along with the more northwest
flow aloft, will allow for better coverage with widely scattered high
based showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain this afternoon,
with a few storms pushing out across the I-25 Corridor through the late
afternoon and early evening. Soundings continue to support inverted v
profiles and DCAPE up to 1000 j/kg, leading to main risks from storms being
gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, as well as cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures today look to be around yesterday`s readings in the 80s to
around 90 across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher
terrain.  Any convection wanes through the early evening, with clearing
skies overnight, leading to near seasonal lows in the 50s across the
plains, and 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

For Wednesday, models do indicate a more northerly flow once again across
the Rockies, as a stronger short wave digs across the Upper Midwest and
into the High Plains. Drier air within the more northerly flow will lead
to less coverage and mainly isolated high based storms over the higher
terrain Wednesday afternoon once again. The passing short wave will
send a dry, back door cold front across Eastern Colorado through the day
Wednesday, with breezy north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph expected
across plains by Wednesday afternoon. Mixing associated with the passing
front will help to warm temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s
across the plains on Wednesday, and similar readings from Tuesday across
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Wednesday Night - Thursday: The later part of midweek will bring
relatively quiet weather to much of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Northwesterly flow will be in place as troughing sits to
the east and ridging sits to the west. While no major forcing is
anticipated with this pattern, orographic forcing will be ongoing.
Along with that, modest moisture will remain in place despite the
northerly component to the flow. With terrain forcing, and at least
some moisture in place, isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected along the mountains Thursday afternoon, with dry conditions
otherwise. Beyond all of that, winds will continue to remain
relatively light around and less than 10 mph, with mostly clear
skies Wednesday night giving way to partly cloudy skies Thursday
afternoon. Looking at temperatures, while a lack luster cold front
is expected to push southward late Wednesday, much of the area will
remain near to slightly above seasonal values for early September.

Friday - Monday: Heading into the weekend and into early next week,
active weather makes a return across south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow will become messy as waves/disturbances push across
the region through this timeframe, bringing enhanced forcing to the
area. Along with that, an uptick in moisture is anticipated as
southerly to southwesterly flow advect richer moisture into the
region. With the increase in both forcing and moisture, showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day during this period, though with
the greatest coverage remaining along the higher terrain where
forcing will be maximized. Outside of all of that, an increase in
cloud cover is anticipated, with winds continuing to remain
relatively light, though may become breezier across the plains
over the weekend as the waves begin to push over. As for
temperatures, a much more significant cool down is expected as a
stronger cold front pushes southward late Thursday into early
Friday, dropping much of the region to below seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today. A little better
storm coverage late in the day into the early evening will bring
a better probability for gusty outflow wind impacts from -TSRA
at KCOS and KALS. Have introduced a prob30 group for KCOS mainly
to account for the potential for erratic gusty winds up to 35
kts which carries a greater than 30 percent likelihood. Brief
light rain and VFR cigs could also accompany -TSRA today. KPUB
is less likely to be affected as storms should stay closer to
the mountains. Otherwise, winds will be light and diurnally
driven until Wednesday morning when a cold front pushes through
KCOS and KPUB in the 15z-18z timeframe. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT