568
FXUS65 KPUB 251919
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
119 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening, then
  warmer and drier this weekend.

- Another storm system is expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently...The main moisture plume has pushed east into the central
US plains. However, an upper disturbance tracking across the region
was tapping into available moisture to produce showers and a greater
amount of thunderstorms across the higher terrain this afternoon.
Temps as of midday have struggled to warm due to the extensive cloud
cover earlier this morning, with 50s across the high valleys and 60s
across the plains. Temps will likely warm another 5-10 degrees
through the afternoon as some cloud breaks have formed.

Tonight...As the upper disturbance continues pushing east through
the evening, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to push
east as well across the eastern plains, which much of the activity
diminishing across the far eastern plains by around midnight. Sky
cover will gradually thin overnight as high pressure starts to build
in, and some very patchy fog may develop across portions of the
plains and San Luis Valley towards daybreak. Plan on low temps in
the upper 30s to lower 40s for the high valleys, and mid 40s to mid
50s for the plains.

Saturday...Upper ridge will build in across the region on Saturday,
providing for warmer and much drier conditions as weaker westerly
flow sets in. Save for some very isolated storm chances along the
Continental Divide during the afternoon, the rest of the forecast
area has nil pops. Maximum temperatures are forecast to climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys, which is right
around seasonal norms, and upper 70s to mid 80s for the plains,
which is around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Sunday...Upper ridge axis over the region will shift slightly to the
east on Sunday, as another Pacific trough starts to strengthen and
dip south along the West Coast. This will increase southwest flow
aloft, boosting temps across the area while at the same time aiding
in moisture advection across the Four Corners. While much of the day
will be dry for the entire forecast area, by the evening isolated
showers creep back into the Continental Divide, which then becomes
more scattered in nature overnight as a closed low pushes onshore
into central CA. Plan on highs in the 70s for the high valleys, and
upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains.

Monday... A lot starts to happen on Monday, which will carry through
into mid week. First, the upper ridge over the central US weakens
even more and continues to push to the east. The incoming Pacific
closed low system strengthens as it drops south across CA, while at
the same time Hurricane Polo moves onshore across the CA Baja and
into Mexico, feeding abundant moisture up into the Desert SW. Model
trends indicate that by Monday morning precip chances jump up
considerably along the Continental Divide, then these high chances
then spread from west to east through the day, increasing to
scattered pops for the eastern plains by the night. This trend seems
reasonable at this time, even with variables that could crop up, and
QPF amounts are ranging around .5 inch of rain along the Continental
Divide, and a .1 to .2 for the rest of the higher terrain, through
Monday. The plains will likely see very low amounts initially Monday
evening. As for temps, increased cloud cover and incoming precip
will cool the higher elevations and valleys a bit, but it should be
one more warm day across the eastern plains. Therefore, look for
highs in the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s for
the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...There are some model differences showing up
by Tuesday, though there is some agreement on sweeping the upper low
east into AZ where it merges with the remnants of Hurricane Polo on
Tuesday, then Wednesday the track of this low is then up in the air.
Regardless, the potential for a good amount of additional rainfall
for all of the forecast area through midweek is there. High temps
both days are anticipated to be much cooler and below seasonal
normals.

Thursday...The NBM paints Thursday as a few degrees warmer as the
system exits the area and precip chances dwindle. This will be
highly dependent on track of the upper low, with some models hinting
at the low lingering in the area for another 24 hours. Stay tuned as
this solution will likely go through some adjustments in the
following days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper disturbance crossing the region will tap into available
moisture for another round of showers and thunderstorms for the
forecast area this afternoon and evening. More thunderstorm activity
anticipated today as compared to previous days due to additional
heating from cloud breaks. Very low potential for some patchy fog to
develop near terminals overnight, but confidence low at this time
and will monitor.

KALS: Tempo for -TSRA from 18z-20z, then PROB30 for -TSRA from 20z-
01z. VFR to MVFR conditions through 01z, then VFR conditions
afterwards.

KCOS: IFR/MVFR conditions with -SHRA possible through 20z, then
MVFR/VFR conditions with PROB30 for -TSRA until 02z, then VFR
conditions afterwards.

KPUB: MVFR/VFR conditions until 20z, then VFR conditions afterwards.
PROB30 for -SHRA between 22z-02z. Did not mention thunder due to low
confidence, but potential is there.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE