406
FXUS65 KPUB 040545
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1145 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Noticeably cooler for the plains on Friday behind a cold
  front.

- Increasing thunderstorm chances for Friday through the
  weekend, especially in and near the mountains with another
  uptick in monsoon moisture.

- Warmer and drier for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Breezy northerly winds have spread across the southeast plains today
behind a front, though mixing has resulted in warmer temperatures
with 80s to lower 90s across the plains.  Thunderstorm coverage
has remained rather sparse today as moisture is more limited
and upper forcing lacking within the northwest flow aloft. Will
maintain isolated shower and thunderstorm chances over the
mountains but most areas will remain dry as soundings show
inverted V profiles suggesting gusty winds, and virga will be
the more likely scenario. Best chances for some spotty rainfall
amounts will be across the eastern San Juans where a little
better moisture resides. Otherwise, activity will diminish
quickly this evening with clearing skies and another cool night,
especially across the interior valleys where lows will drop
into the 30s.

One last unseasonably warm day expected for Thursday ahead of
another cold front which will push through the southeast plains
Thursday night. Moisture increases out west ahead of a disturbance
across NV and UT which edges closer. This should bring a slight
uptick in thunderstorm chances for the mountains in the
afternoon and evening, with the best chances along the
Continental Divide. The southeast plains will remain dry.
Temperatures will once again climb into the 80s to lower 90s
across the plains with 70s to lower 80s for the valleys and 50s
and 60s for the high country. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Thursday Night - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the
weekend, an uptick in active weather is anticipated for south
central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern will be in place
over the region, with shortwaves/disturbance pushing over, bringing
an increase in forcing. Along with that, an uptick in moisture is
expected as a tropical system from the Pacific gets pulled into the
broader flow and passes near the region. With the increase in both
forcing and moisture, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
across the area. Coverage of showers and storms will be greatest
during the afternoon hours, and along the higher terrain where
forcing will be maximized. Otherwise, winds will be light, to at
time breezy, and around 10-15 mph as the disturbances pass over,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies through this period given the
unsettled pattern. As for temperatures, a cool down to below
seasonal values is anticipated thanks to a cold front passage
Thursday night.

Monday - Tuesday: For the start of next week, some active weather
will persist for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A pattern change is expected, with westerly flow to modest
ridging anticipated. While no major forcing is expected with this
pattern, orographic forcing will continue. In addition, while richer
moisture will get pushed eastward, modest moisture is anticipated to
remain in place. With some forcing and moisture still in place,
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, though will be more
isolated to scattered in nature, and mostly restricted to the higher
terrain. Beyond all of that, winds will become more relatively
light, with periods of increased cloud cover during the afternoons.
Looking at temperatures, a minor warmup is anticipated, with much of
the region returning back to seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Increased
amount of virga and high based shower activity Thu afternoon
will likely lead to a period of gusty/erratic winds at all
terminals 21z-02z, though chance of convection occurring in the
immediate vicinity of any taf site will remain low. At KALS,
light winds overnight into Thu morning, then w-sw flow during
the afternoon and evening, with some occasional gusts over 20
kts due to outflows from distant convection. At KPUB w-nw winds
will persist into midday Thu before become sely upslope in the
afternoon. Some erratic/gusty (30 kts) winds possible with virga
Thu afternoon/evening. At KCOS, north winds will linger into
early afternoon, before swinging around to e-se upslope after
21z. Likely a period of erratic/gusty winds from virga/vcsh from
late afternoon into the evening. Cold front then arrives around
05z, with a switch to north winds gusting to 30 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN