315
FXUS65 KPUB 240957
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are expected across our plains
  today, with dry conditions prevailing across all areas.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions look to
  persist throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently..

A very weak cool front is approaching from to our north, and is
expect to push across our plains through the early morning hours. As
of 2 AM, this feature is still draped across the Denver metro area.
Temperatures across our plains are much warmer than they were at
this time yesterday, with most locations still in the 50s.
Temperatures and dewpoints are in the mid to upper 30s in the San
Luis Valley, though with the increase in upper-level cloud cover
we`re seeing this morning, the risk of fog development has decreased
somewhat.

Today and Tonight..

Overall, this morning`s weak and dry cool frontal passage
doesn`t look to amount to much. Models are still bringing the
front across our plains from north to south from around 4 AM
through 7 AM, with just a few hours of northerly wind gusts to
20 mph as it`s pushing through. Winds look to slowly weaken and
transition to a more easterly component by lunchtime.
Temperatures this afternoon look to be near normal, and will
likely be just a degree or two cooler than yesterday thanks to
this morning`s frontal passage. This will mean highs in the 70s
to low 80s over the plains, with low to mid 70s for mountain
valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. Though drier
conditions are likely, with humidity values falling down into
the 20% range, critical fire weather conditions are not expected
today thanks to weaker winds through the driest part of the
afternoon. We remain in northerly flow aloft as ridging begins
to build in from our west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday Onwards..

Our extended forecast will be characterized by above normal
temperatures and dry conditions, as a blocking pattern remains in
place over our region. Models have been consistent with bringing in
a low across the midwest that looks to swing south and sit somewhere
over the Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma region, where it eventually
begins to interact with a tropical system later in the period. This
setup will keep high pressure in place over Colorado, allowing for
strong subsidence and warming for the next several days. Apart from
one or two small chances at shortwave energy and potential mountain
thunderstorms, precipitation is not expected from Wednesday onwards
through the weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 80s
every afternoon on the plains under mostly sunny skies. Though dry
conditions are likely, critical fire weather will not be likely
thanks to weak and disorganized wind patterns under the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. A weak cool frontal boundary is passing
through our plains early this morning, bringing northerly wind gusts
to around 25kt to both KCOS and KPUB. Northerly winds look to
persist through the morning, with a slow transition the east winds
by early afternoon. Mid and upper-level clouds are expected through
the first half of the period, with gradual clearing by the end of
today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR