450
FXUS65 KPUB 301811
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1211 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High-impact system will bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding
concerns to SE Colorado through Thursday. System will also come with
strong north winds and some high mountain snow.

- Some aspects of the forecast are prone to changes, including
heaviest rain amounts and locations.

- Warmer and drier conditions return to the region Friday and
  into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper low continues to spin towards the Four Corners, strengthening
and bringing up moisture from the remnants of hurricane Polo.
Showers will continue spreading from south to north across the
region overnight and into Wednesday, with widespread light to
moderate rainfall.

Where the challenge with this forecast comes in will be the exact
placement of both the upper and surface lows, along with the highest
axis of QPF. Even a minor north of south shift of the upper low, or
a few hours of difference in the intensification of the surface low,
could cause dramatic changes in the overall rainfall amounts we
receive. The general trends have sent the upper low through New
Mexico, lifting northeast through early Thursday with the surface
low just ahead of it, tracking through the OK Panhandle.

Light to moderate rainfall will be widespread across most areas,
though the spacial coverage of rain showers will decrease somewhat
the further north you go. Where the tricky part of the QPF comes in
is the higher-end amounts. Our heaviest QPF over the next 48 hours
will fall in bands and more isolated pockets of intense rainfall.
These are what will shift the most with the position of the system,
and they are what the models have been struggling the most with.
We`ll rely on a combination of deformation banding, upsloping winds,
some orographic assistance, and the intensification of the low.

Our highest QPF remains along and east of our southeast mountains,
with some high bullseyes over portions of the eastern plains south
of highway 50. These areas have remained consistent across recent
model trends, with even the NBM and ensemble means highlighting
these areas as potentially receiving the highest impacts. That being
said, locally higher QPF will also be possible over the San Juans,
Pikes Peak, the southwest San Luis Valley, and other portions of our
higher terrain, depending on orographics.

Looking at the specific numbers amongst the models, forecast
confidence increases further south and east. The south and east
plains, mainly along and south of highway 50, look to receive
anywhere from 1-3 inches by Thursday evening. Areas north of 50 will
typically get 1-2 inches in total, with some areas in and around El
Paso County getting between a half-inch and an inch, thanks to some
localized downsloping. That being said, some models have far more
precip in places, while others have noticeably less. Will have to
keep a close eye on how the system evolves, given the amount of
dynamic factors in place.

Several inches of snowfall are also expected over our highest peaks,
mainly above 12 thousand feet. While the snowfall will be confined
to these higher elevations, it may accumulate quickly at times.
Travel over the higher terrain may be hazardous for the next few
days.

The Wet Mountains and the Aspen Acres burn scar will continue to be
at heightened chances for flash flooding, mudslides, and debris
flow, with some flooding and related impacts having already occurred.
Some gusty winds are also expected with the intensifying system,
with gusts 30-40 mph possible through early Thursday, with some more
localized gusts up to 45 mph possible. This could result in some
tree damage as well as power line concerns, particularly in areas
with unstable or flooded ground.

Outside of the burn scars, steeper areas in the terrain, areas with
already-saturated soils, and other low-lying areas will also be at
heightened risk for flash flooding. Flash flooding can occur
quickly, so be sure to remain aware, and have multiple ways of
receiving warnings and other weather information.

For Thursday, the low continues east, as will the axis of heaviest
rainfall and strongest winds. Focus will shift onto the eastern
plains, with the system finally pushing east of us by the evening.
That being said, any ongoing flooding may persist past the end of
the actual rainfall. So again, make sure to remain situationally
aware, especially if you are near a higher risk area.

Additionally, there is a very low-end but still realistic chance for
a few embedded severe storms on Thursday. These would occur on the
back side of the departing low over the far southeast plains,
sometime Thursday afternoon into evening. While this portion of the
forecast remains low in terms of confidence, we cannot completely
rule out some severe impacts given how moist and dynamically driven
this system is.

Finally, temperatures will be noticeably cooler today, with highs in
the 50s to low-60s along and west of I-25, warming slightly further
east. Thursday will be slightly warmer, with low-mid 60s across most
of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Looking at Friday and into this weekend, warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return to the region. Upper ridging will build back
in over the western CONUS, with very little expected in terms of
precipitation. Temperatures will warm a bit as well, with highs
climbing into the 70s to possibly low-80s by next week. There will
still be chances for isolated convection over the mountains each
day, but overall not much is expected. With the drier air moving in,
may need to monitor for freezing overnight temps in the high
valleys, but as of now latest NBM keeps things in the mid to upper-
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Occasional MVFR conditions within stronger showers can be
expected at COS, PUB and ALS through the evening, with
gusty northerly winds 15-25kts, especially at COS and PUB
developing through the afternoon and persisting through
the late evening. Showers diminish from northwest to
southeast overnight, with mainly VFR conditions through
the rest of the taf period. There is a low chance of
fog developing at the terminals early Thursday morning,
however, there will likely be enough mid and high level
clouds to prevent low cigs from developing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067>071.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW