251
FNUS75 KPUB 051515
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Monument Fire Center...Pike NF
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
915 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on June 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet and warm conditions will prevail through this afternoon
with winds remaining less than 10 mph this afternoon.  Humidity
levels will fall to under 15 percent this afternoon with highs
in the mid 80s.  On Thursday, flow will turn southeasterly and
increase through the afternoon.  This will usher in better
moisture and slightly higher humidity values.  Highs will continue
to be in the 80s.  Southeasterly winds in the afternoon will be
in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....86F.
Min humidity........8-13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast 4 to 8 mph until 1500, then north around 9 mph.
Mixing height.......9500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 13 mph until 1300, then
                    northwest around 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   7   9   8   8   7   6   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  76  79  81  82  85  86  85
RH..............24  20  17  16  15  13  13  14
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   7   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  16  16  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 7.0 8.0 9.0 10  10  10  9.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  13  13  12  13  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100061  78  98  99  108 99  109 109

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....51F.
Max humidity........56-61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 9 mph until 2100, then
                    northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6500 ft agl until 2000, then 1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 7 mph until 0100, then north
                    around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then fair until 2000, then
                    poor.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............85  81  74  69  65  63  60  59  58  56  55  52
RH..............14  17  22  28  33  35  39  40  40  43  47  56
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...8.0 5.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N   NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.13  12  9   8   8   7   8   8   8   9   10  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100089  49  13  9   9   7   9   9   9   10  11  13

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny, isolated thunderstorms possible after 1500.
LAL.................1 becoming 2 after 1500.
Max temperature.....82F.
Min humidity........18-23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds turning southerly around 3 to 6 mph
                    until 1200, then southeast around 13
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 1500.
Mixing height.......3000 ft agl until 1100, then 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph until 1100, then south
                    around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700. Good after 1100.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   6   5   3   6   8   11  14  18  22  27  33
Weather cov.....                                    SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2
Temp............51  57  63  68  71  74  78  80  82  82  81  80
RH..............61  51  43  37  34  30  28  25  23  23  24  26
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   7   7   7   12  12  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  13  13  13  20  20  20  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 5.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   NW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  10  12  13  14  15  16  17  17  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100010  12  20  23  38  55  74  81  88  96  83  65

$$
Forecaster...MOZLEY
Requested by...Christina Barba
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415650.0/PUB
.DELDT 06/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0