765
FXUS62 KRAH 151418
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1018 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1018 AM Tuesday...

Early morning convection is finally starting to wane across the
area, with substantial cloud top warming noted in GOES-19 imagery
along with an overall decrease in radar returns. Outflows from
distant convection across the western Piedmont propagated southward
early this morning, reaching and eventually overrunning a sharp 925-
850mb moisture gradient across central NC around 09Z, and ultimately
blossoming into the NE-SW oriented band of storms we saw around rush
hour this morning.  Some spots likely saw anywhere from 2-3 inches
of rain with these storms, although much of this occurred adjacent
to Jordan Lake which helped keep flooding to a minimum. The
remaining precip should diminish before noon.

In terms of forecast concerns for later today, the morning
convection and subsequent overturning of the atmosphere is likely to
stabilize portions of central NC through at least mid/late
afternoon. The synoptic pattern supports showers and storms across
the western Piedmont this afternoon and this still seems more than
reasonable based on incoming 12Z data. Meanwhile, it`s conceivable
that new convection forms on the eastern periphery of this morning`s
storms with development across the Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain, ultimately leaving central NC within a relative minima of
areal coverage this afternoon. Will make some revisions to PoPs to
capture these thoughts, but otherwise the forecast looks to be on
track.

Antecedent wet ground will result in easier and quicker flash flood
potential with the heavier downpours, especially over the western
and northern Piedmont. These areas are highlighted within a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall from WPC.

This region is also the wettest with the past few days bringing
plenty of heavy rain events. Greensboro was already approaching 8
inches of rain for the month and it is not even half over yet. This
is already double the monthly 30 year average. In addition,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon
and linger well into the evening. The focus will be on the western
and northern Piedmont locations where basin averages of around 1
inch can be expected QPF wise. However, some locations will likely
top 2-3 inches locally. This would produce additional flash
flooding. The heaviest rains are not expected to be widespread,
limiting the potential scope of the flash flooding to mainly
localized or urban areas. To the east and south, widely scattered
storms are expected with locally 1+ inch of rain. The instability is
expected to be less today than in previous days limiting the severe
damaging wind threat. However, an isolated damaging wind gust with
the stronger cores. Highs will generally be 87-92. Lows tonight
should be 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north on Wednesday with the upper ridge building in the
southeast U.S. from off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the
convection to widely scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities
will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along
the Blue Ridge. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with partly to
mostly sunny afternoon skies (90-95). Lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

* Hot temperatures, probably a degree or three higher than NBM ones
  used to populate the current official forecast, will remain
  anomalously warm and well in the 70s each night and yield Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk through the forecast period.

* Only very localized outflow relief from the heat may briefly grow
  in coverage Sat, when diurnal convection may attain maximum
  coverage in cntl NC

A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the swrn N. Atlantic
to the Southeast through the weekend, with perhaps some minimally
decreasing heights across the srn Middle Atlantic Sat-Mon, when the
models hint that a weakness may develop between the center of that
ridge and another forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N.
Atlantic. Such a solution would cause mid-level flow to assume a
more wnwly component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCV into
at least the nrn half of NC by Sat.

At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its
wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and
also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may
briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC on Sat, as the
aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of
very weakly falling heights aloft.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to
suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain
forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, and related small outflows
through at least Fri - with probably only scattered coverage along
those features. Sat will offer the relative highest probability of
diurnal convection, when the aforementioned outflow-reinforced front
will probably make its closest approach. It will otherwise remain
hot and humid, with high temperatures generally a couple of
categories above average and low temperatures two to three
categories above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms may persist over portions of the region
through 12z-14z, before finally dying off. The RDU area will have
the higher chances of showers/storms. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions will give way to the development of IFR to LIFR stratus
at many locations. This stratus will lift out between 13z and 14z.
Expect another chance of showers/storms this afternoon and evening,
with the higher probabilities from the Triad to the Triangle between
18z and 05z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett