742
FXUS62 KRAH 200813
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
313 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle across GA and SC today. High pressure
will ridge across the region for Thursday through early Friday
before the front lifts north as a warm front on Friday across the
Carolinas and into VA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Thursday...

Sfc analysis this morning depicted nely flow across central NC in
wake of a cold front that has cleared south into SC/GA.  Further
upstream, a thick blanket of stratus has formed along south of the
mouth of Chesapeake Bay.  This deck should sag south across the
northern Coastal Plain and northern/central Piedmont over the next
several hours and linger through late morning/midday. With the front
stalled to our south, and persistent nely flow, expect highs today
to be a bit cooler in the upper 50s (NE) to around 70 (SW).

As we progress to this evening and overnight hours, isentropic
upglide will promote light rain chances mainly across central to
northern areas. Expect largely trace to a few hundreds of an inch at
most through 12Z Friday. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50
are expected. Some patchy fog may be possible late tonight/early
Friday morning along the NC/SC border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Thursday...

The front previously stalled across SC on Thursday will move north
as a warm front on Friday. With largely zonal flow overhead, much of
Friday should be dry with light sswly flow at the sfc.  By Friday
evening/overnight, weak mid-level perturbations will move across the
southern Appalachians.  This, along with some WAA, may promote light
rain across our area. However, QPF guidance amongst ensembles aren`t
overly impressed with amounts through 12Z Saturday, generally a few
hundreds to a few tenths across the north.

Otherwise expect warmer daytime highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected. Some
additional fog may be possible late Friday night/early Saturday
morning near the NC/VA border.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1252 PM Wednesday...

* Rain chances in the extended focused on Sat and late Tue/Wed

We will start mild on Sat ahead of a cold front slated to move south
out of VA. Ahead of the front, highs will be some 10-15 degrees
above normal in the low 70s N to mid/upper 70s S. The amount of
energy at mid-levels is relatively weak, but there does appear to be
enough isentropic lift and convergence along the boundary to warrant
some light rain or showers in the afternoon/evening. Rainfall
amounts, look to be light at a tenth of an inch or less in the
ensemble data.

Temperatures lower slightly Sun and Mon behind the front and with
somewhat cooler high pressure over the region. We should still
manage above normal highs by some 5-10 degrees in the 60s to around
70 and lows in the 40s.

For the early to middle part of next week, ridging will take over
briefly ahead of our next system. Guidance is indicating another
frontal system moving east from the Central Plains and MS valley
region. Currently, the models are not in excellent agreement on
timing, but a consensus of the ensemble data would suggest the best
chance of rain/showers sometime late Tue into Wed. Confidence on
details is low at this point, depending on the actual track of the
system. Highs are expected to mainly hold in the 60s through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 134 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions under nely sfc flow is showing across central NC
early this morning. However, a blanket of MVFR/IFR stratus over the
southern mouth of Chesapeake is quickly approaching KRWI. Suspect
this sub-VFR cloud deck will impact KRDU, but should remain north
and east of KFAY/KINT/KGSO.  Expect this layer to slowly lift
through late Thursday morning as KRWI/KRDU return to VFR. Additional
multi-layer cloudiness, primarily mid and high level clouds, will
advect across central NC throughout the rest of the 24 hour TAF
period. Light isentropic-driven rain may reach KINT/KGSO around 06Z
Friday, but any associated sub-VFR ceilings will largely hold off
till after the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR stratus associated with isentropic-driven light
rain will spread across the western/central Piedmont Friday and
linger through Friday evening. Additional rounds of light rain and
low-level cloudiness will be possible Friday night into Saturday. A
front will sag into central NC on Saturday, continuing the chance
for unsettled weather. The front will clear south of our area
Sunday, with dry VFR weather returning early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Luchetti