934
FXUS62 KRAH 261802
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
202 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rain chances remain limited until perhaps late in the period
  next weekend.

* Near-record highs possible late next week. See climate section
  for more details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1224 PM Saturday...

1) Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions into early next week.
Temperatures will gradually trend above normal by the middle of next
week, perhaps nearing record highs late in the week.

2) Overall dry weather through the period, with some signals for
increased rain chances perhaps next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1224 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions into
early next week. Temperatures will gradually trend above normal
by the middle of next week, perhaps nearing record highs late
in the week.

An early season Nor`easter presently offshore of the Mid-Atlantic
states will continue to retrograde northwest into New Jersey over
the next 24-48 hours. It will linger into the early part of next
week, favoring continued seasonal temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s through Monday. Tuesday is a transition day when the system
begins to exit New England.

Come midweek, high pressure ridging will build back in and promote a
warming trend to above normal highs, especially late in the week.
Late next week, guidance is indicating a return to some humid air in
the southerly return flow. Add to that, low-level thicknesses may
exceed 1420m, typical values seen in July. This should favor
mid/upper 80s to even a few low 90s in spots as we close out
next week. A few sites may get close to record highs during this
stretch.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Overall dry weather through the period, with some
signals for increased rain chances perhaps next weekend.

The pattern continues to favor dry conditions well into next week.
The latest ensemble and probabilistic guidance has slowed any onset
of unsettled weather to perhaps not until the upcoming weekend. With
ridging set to build back in midweek and some ensemble clusters
showing that pattern persisting into late next week, our rain
chances may have to wait until more appreciable Gulf moisture can
build back in sometime late Friday or even Sat-Sun next weekend. For
now, only a slight to low chance of rain is expected Fri-Sat. A
frontal system could approach late in the weekend, favoring a better
chance of unsettled weather, but the pattern is quite uncertain at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the next 24
hours, with just some scattered mid and high clouds through tonight
across mainly the far NE (including RWI) as the strong coastal low
currently east of the Delmarva continues moving north and away from
the area. NW winds around the low will continue to gust up to 18-22
kts at times this afternoon, with the highest gusts in the east,
before diminishing after dark.

Can`t totally rule out brief marginal low-level wind shear around
RWI tonight around 00z-06z as winds at 2 kft increase as high as 30-
40 kts, but guidance is in less agreement compared to last night on
the jet getting that strong, and forecast model soundings depict a
less stout inversion. So confidence in low-level wind shear is too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

Surface winds will increase again on Sunday and turn more westerly,
gusting up to 15-20 kts by late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook: A dry/continental airmass will remain over cntl NC and
favor VFR conditions for at least the next several days.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KRDU: 89/1954

October 1:
KRDU: 90/1986

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...Danco/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH