024
FXUS62 KRAH 140651
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A Heat Advisory today, just a little relief Saturday, then
  dangerous heat expected Sunday and Monday.

* A Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts.

* A Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday with
  the higher risk in the western areas of central NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 AM Friday...

1) Dangerous heat and humidity is expected today with many areas
across the southern and eastern portions of NC under a Heat
Advisory. After a brief break in the dangerous heat in some areas,
it returns Sunday and Monday.

2) A Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts.

3) A Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday with
the higher risk in the western areas of central NC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat and humidity is expected today with
many areas across the southern and eastern portions of NC under a
Heat Advisory. After a brief break in the dangerous heat in some
areas, it returns Sunday and Monday.

Satellite data indicated the pesky WNW flow aloft continues early
this morning from IL/IN ESE to off the mid-Atlantic coast. Strong to
severe storms were ongoing in the Midwest with plenty of mid and
high cloudiness and even a few showers/storms extending southeast to
the VA/KY mountains.

This cloudiness is expected to slowly dissipate this morning with
plenty of sun expected today. Strong heating with a very moist
surface layer that will not mix out as much today, will lead to
highs in the 90s. Dew points will be mostly in the mid 70s. This
will lead to heat indices topping out in the 105 to 109 range in the
Advisory area. Elsewhere, heat indices in the upper 90s to lower
100s are expected in the NW Piedmont. Lows tonight will be in the
70s, and if no storms are in the area - it will remain in the lower
to mid 80s well into the night.

There may be a small break in the high heat and humidity on
Saturday. However, this all depends on the storm chances later today
and this evening and then again Saturday. The coverage Saturday may
be good enough to knock back the heat some - a bit like what just
occurred late Wednesday into Thursday. Therefore, the storm threat
may be the main hazard Saturday.

Regardless, the dangerous heat is expected to return Sunday and
Monday as the upper ridge and SW flow at the surface return. The NBM
appears a bit too hot on Monday with upper 90s to near 100 and a
chance at 110 heat indices around RDU and FAY/RWI. It does have
support from the EC ensemble, especially south and east of RDU.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The main hazard is damaging wind gusts.

An MCV over the Midwest will likely graze NC to the north and east
later today in the problematic WNW flow aloft. Even so, strong
heating today will allow for a corridor of MLCapes in excess of 2000
J/kg as PW`s increase to 2+ inches from WVA and VA across portions
of northern NC. Scattered storms that develop upstream should be
able to continue strong to locally severe (with wind damage the
primary threat) as they track into NC. The timing is a bit of a
challenge but the latest CAMS suggest mid to late afternoon in the
west and late day into the evening in the north and east. This will
be adjusted with analysis today. A few wet microbursts are possible.

3) A Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday with
the higher risk in the western areas of central NC.

Strong instability is expected to develop with high PW`s. Scattered
storms that develop over the mountains of VA/NC/WVA will again
likely surge SE into NC. A few wet microbursts will be possible
along with potentially more coverage than today. The main timing
would be mid to late afternoon in the NW and elsewhere late
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Generally VFR conditions are expected today.
However, there is a chance of PM thunderstorms, with movement from
the NW to the SE. A PROB30 will be forecast in the Triad first, then
around of slightly after 00z this evening for RDU and RWI.

Looking beyond 00Z Sat, PM storms are possible each day through
Sunday, with lesser chances on Monday. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 14: KRDU: 100/1995 KFAY: 100/1918

August 16: KFAY: 100/1943

August 17: KGSO: 99/1988 KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016

August 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017

August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021

August 19: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ025>028-040>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett