921
FXUS62 KRAH 171753
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will
dissipate through Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen
off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing hot humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Tuesday...

Expect typical summer weather this afternoon into Wednesday,
with very warm to hot temps, elevated humidity and the threat
for showers/storms in the afternoon/evenings.

This afternoon mainly fair weather cumulus out there but
starting to see some building cumulus into showers across the
Sandhills. With SBCAPEs of 2000-3000 J/kg, shouldn`t take much
to build into thunderstorms. Severe threat if any would be wet
microbursts given the higher pwats and moist environment.

Leaning toward blend of the convective allowing models allows
for scattered convection areawide by mid afternoon with two
possible areas of concentration. One closer toward the northwest
Piedmont with embedded vort tracking across western NC and the
other from US-1 east to the coastal Plains, where some potential
sea-breeze/convergence boundary sets up. Still all in all
keeping pops under 50 percent.

Any storms should fade with loss of heating between 8pm-11pm.
Would not be surprised to see some stratus/fog form where it
rains but will see how things play out this afternoon/evening
and modify forecast later for fog/low clouds.

Wednesday may be somewhat similar to today but the 5h ridge does
build some, so temperatures by afternoon will be in lower to mid
90s from north (VA border) to south (Sandhills). With dewpoints
in the lower 70s, heat indices will reach and exceed 100 degrees
in typical urban areas as well as the sandhills and coastal
plains. Not quite heat advisory levels but definitely something
to be wary of if you will be working or sporting outdoors.

Differential heating would lead to isolated to scattered storms
in the afternoon but models seem to have it capped more
along/east and south of the Triangle area, while another
perturbation aloft tracks across the southern Appalachians
which may bring slightly organized convection toward the Triad
later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

-Slight Risk (level 2) for severe thunderstorms across the region.

A strong cold front over the MS valley will move into the Mid-
Atlantic region Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC has a
majority of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in a Slight Risk for
severe storms as the frontal boundary moves through the eastern
US. There is a good atmospheric setup with SBCAPE values
reaching upwards of 2000 or 3000 J/kg in the afternoon
especially over the Coastal Plain. Shear values are also around
25-35 kts which would only promote severe thunderstorms to
develop. The main hazards with these storms will be damaging
wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.
These storms are expected to begin early afternoon in the NW
Piedmont area and then move across the region through the
evening hours. As the front shifts eastward and
stalls/dissipates along the coast early Friday, a few lingering
showers across portions of the coastal plain could be possible.
Afternoon diurnal/seabreeze thunderstorms could move inland
Friday afternoon before high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

-Hot and humid airmass continues through the weekend with heat
 indices in the low 100s early next week.

Saturday through Tuesday is expected to be dry, but hot and
humid. A few lingering showers in the far southern coastal plain
could develop Saturday afternoon but PoPs are currently low,
10-25%. The main story for the weekend through early next week
will be the heat. Temperatures each day are expected to warm up.
Saturday and Sunday temps will be in the low 90s north to mid
90s elsewhere with heat indices on Saturday in the mid 90s, and
upper 90s on Sunday. A few warmer spots on Sunday could reach a
heat index of 102. Monday and Tuesday will possibly hit Heat
Advisory Criteria for the NE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal
Plain regions. Temperatures will be in the 95-99 degree range
while heat indices will range from 100 to 106 in those areas.
Temperature records are not expected to be broken at this time,
but will keep a close eye on it in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Through 18Z Wednesday: Isolated showers/tstms are ongoing now
from KFAY south and southwestward and thus will include a tempo
for MVFR conditions at KFAY through 21z today. Outside of that,
VFR conditions are ongoing across much of the rest of central
NC attm with localized high-MVFR due to stratus. Otherwise,
given the absence of a large-scale synoptic forcing mechanism,
additional shower/tstm coverage should be rather widely
scattered and odds favor most locations, including our remaining
4 TAF sites other than KFAY remaining VFR the rest of today and
tonight. Its worth noting that given the more limited
shower/tstm coverage today, for now well hold off including
widespread sub-VFR stratus in this TAF package.

After 18Z Wednesday: Isolated showers/tstm may occur Wednesday
afternoon, then the next best chance of thunderstorms will be
late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, when some storms
could become strong.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WFO RNK
NEAR TERM...WFO RNK
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...NP
EQUIPMENT...RAH