281
FXUS62 KRAH 222057
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the north today and push southward
through North Carolina tonight. Behind the front, high pressure will
build in from the north Sunday and Monday, then move off the Mid
Atlantic coast Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

As of 18Z, showers associated with the s/w aloft were sliding ese
across the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain. The showers should
continue ese and out of the area during the next few hours.
Meanwhile, the cold front, draped wswwd from a low over s-central
VA, was still north and west of the area. A pre-frontal trough
should move across central NC this aft/eve, as the surface low drops
southward over the NC Coastal Plain, dragging the cold front with
it. However, the arrival of cooler air will be delayed until the
surface low moves swd out of the area this evening and cooler air
advects in (backdoor style) from SE VA late evening/early tonight. A
second s/w aloft should track sewd across the area in the wake of
the surface cold front tonight.

Precipitation: From the SPC mesoanalysis page, MLCAPE was maximized
across the southeast half of central NC, generally 500-1000 J/Kg,
while Effective Shear ranged from around 55 kts across the north to
40-50 kts where the MLCAPE was highest. Low-level lapse rates were
about 7 C/Km. Showers and storms have developed as of 20Z, along the
pre-frontal trough near the Triangle, and should continue ewd within
a good convective environment for the next hour or so. Additional
showers and storms have also developed over the srn Piedmont, and
may continue spreading ewd across the Sandhills and srn Coastal
Plain tonight, possibly increasing in coverage and intensity as the
front approaches later this evening.

Temperatures: Temperatures could drop some behind the front this
aft/early eve, but the cooler air will arrive from the NE later this
eve/tonight, with lows bottoming out in the mid 40s north to low/mid
50s south by 12Z Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Overview: In the wake of the s/w aloft, nwly flow will prevail over
central NC Sun/Sun night. A nrn stream s/w will track ese across the
Northeast, while the sub-tropical ridge approaches from the west
ahead of the next low pressure system. At the surface, high pressure
will remain over the Midwest on Sun, finally building into the
region in the wake of a dry, reinforcing cold front Sun eve/night.
Dry weather will prevail, with highs mainly in the 60s and dewpoints
in the 40s. Winds could get a bit breezy with the dry cold fropa Sun
eve and remain a bit stirred Sun night. Cloud cover will decrease
Sun morning, with sunny/clear skies Sun aft through Sun night. Lows
Sun night may depend on how much stirring there is and for how long,
with otherwise excellent radiational cooling conditions. For now,
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

* Quiet and seasonable Mon, then unsettled Tue through Wed night,
  although no significant hazards are currently expected.

* Dry and colder Thu through Sat.

Mon/Mon night: Mild continental surface high pressure centered to
our N Mon morning will push E and offshore through Mon evening,
while slowly flattening mid level ridging shifts from the Gulf/Mid
South E into the Southeast US. High clouds will gradually increase
Mon, esp over the NW, as our upper level flow accelerates from the
SW. And with the low level flow becoming more SE and S yielding
increasing moist upglide at around 290-300K over the Piedmont Mon
night, lower level clouds will also increase Mon night, again mainly
over the NW half. Low level thicknesses will be just slightly above
normal Mon with decent insolation early in the day, supporting highs
in the 60s to near 70, followed by lows Mon night in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed night: This period is still likely to be somewhat active,
and models are coming into better agreement on timing of the
incoming mid level trough and surface cold front. The surface high
pushing further out over the NW Atlantic will put NC in a deepening
return flow pattern, with falling heights aloft as the mid level
ridge flattens and pushes off the Southeast coast, in response to a
trough digging over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Looking at the
ensemble cluster analysis, the variation among members can be
explained by differences in both timing and amplitude of this trough
and the upstream ridge, although these differences have decreased
from yesterday`s runs. The most likely time of cold front passage is
Wed evening or early overnight, although there remains a decent
spread of several hours either side of this timing. Will retain
above-climo pops through this period, although it likely won`t be
raining this entire time. It appears that the better pops will be
focused Tue night, highest in the NW where jet-induced upper
divergence is projected to be maximized. There still appears to be
chance for at least isolated prefrontal thunderstorms Wed, with
somewhat low CAPE (mean SBCAPE of just 200-400 J/kg) but high deep-
layer bulk shear with long and generally straight hodographs, so we
could get a storm with strong winds and/or small hail, esp along and
E of Hwy 1 where surface dewpoints and CAPE should be greater.
Expect highs Tue in the lower 60s NW (with greater cloud cover and
the potential for a rain-induced stable pool) ranging to low-mid 70s
elsewhere. Wed highs should be mostly in the 70s.

Thu-Sat: We may see some lingering clouds E Thanksgiving morning,
but otherwise expect increasing sunshine, with fair, dry, and cool
conditions through Sat as the mid level trough shifts over E NOAM.
Despite the abundant sunshine, since the incoming surface high will
be of Canadian/Arctic origin, the CAA will keep temps below normal,
esp Fri through Sat as the surface high settles overhead and just to
our N. Expect highs in the 50s Thanksgiving Day (about 5 degrees
below normal) and upper 40s to mid 50s Fri/Sat (about 6-12 degrees
below normal), with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s Thu night and
in the 20s Fri night. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Saturday...

TAF period: No restrictions are currently expected at INT/GSO
through the next 24 hours. An outflow boundary moving through this
afternoon will veer the wind to the northwest, but it appears that
any sprinkles that would have occurred have already moved across the
terminals. Cannot rule out a brief low ceiling overnight, but this
appears unlikely.

Farther to the east, the forecast is more complicated. The line of
showers has yet to move through these terminals. At this point it
appears that FAY will likely not have any precipitation from this
line, but have kept the PROB30 group in at RDU (where thunderstorms
appear unlikely) and RWI (where greater instability could result in
a thunderstorm). Again, the winds will veer to the northwest with
the outflow boundary, but models are now showing a greater amount of
low-level moisture overnight. While the previous set of TAFs
mentioned fog restrictions, think that the wind remaining around 5
kt will limit the fog potential, and have instead gone with stratus
in the forecast. This should persist from late this evening past
sunrise on Sunday, with conditions then scattering out.

Outlook: The primary chance of rain in the extended forecast will
come between Tuesday and Wednesday night, with the best chance of
rain and restrictions coming Tuesday night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green