408
FXUS62 KRAH 120658
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track slowly along the coast of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic through tonight and early Monday. High pressure will
bring drier conditions by Monday afternoon through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 258 AM Sunday...

Continued windy today with NE winds 15-25 mph with occasional gusts
to 30-35 mph.

Periods of rain and drizzle today, mainly SE of most of the Triad
region.

Continued overcast with some light rain/drizzle tonight. Winds
lower later tonight.

The coastal low pressure that was located off the SC/southern NC
coast will continue to slowly and possibly erratically along the NC
coast today and tonight. The forecast of the mid/upper low to remain
along the SE coast through tonight will likely keep the surface low
from moving quickly NE. This means that the likelihood of at least
some rain will continue well into the day today and tonight.
However, QPF is expected to become lighter after 12z today as the
rainfall becomes less widespread and lighter with time. QPF after
12z should still average 0.25 to 0.50 with some local 1 inch totals
in some of the banding that persists. The threat of flash flooding
over our region continues to be low, as it has been exceptionally
dry in the past few weeks.

NE winds at 15-25 mph will likely gust to 30 much of the day into
tonight until the pressure gradient weakens. A few gusts to 35 mph
are expected.

Expect windy and overcast skies with periods of rain and drizzle.
The lowest POP and QPF will be in the NW Piedmont where drier
northerly flow will continue to cut back on the higher moisture
there. Highs will hold in the 60s. Lows tonight will be mostly in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

Overcast in the morning with some lingering light rain/drizzle,
mainly east and south.

Clearing during the afternoon into the western and southern areas.
Lingering cloudiness in the northeast.

Breezy 15-20 mph winds become more north and northwest... bringing a
drying trend.

Expect the low pressure along the coast to weaken and move more to
the NE and affect the Mid-Atlantic states Monday. Our winds will
become more NNW with time allowing drying and subsidence to slowly
win out. A largely downslope flow will bring clearing in the NW
earlier, spreading SE during the afternoon. Highs will begin to warm
with increasing sun in the west. Expect some 70s to show up in the
west and south on Monday, with 65-70 degree readings holding in the
NE.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue in the north and east
on Monday night as some mid/upper level disturbances rotate around
the upper low. Skies should become mostly clear in the southwest.
Lows in the 50s. NNW winds will be much lighter, mainly 10 mph or
less.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

* Quiet weather with no hazardous weather impacts

In the wake of the departing coastal low, an anomalously strong mid-
level ridge over the Southern Plains and MS valley will extend into
the region through Wednesday. This will favor a warming trend with
above normal temperatures from the low 70s NE to upper 70s SW on
Tue, to the mid 70s to near 80 on Wed.

Troughing over the NE US late Wed through Fri will bring a dry cold
front through the region Wed night. Behind the front, chilly high
pressure over the Great Lakes will build south, settling over the
Mid-Atlantic by Fri/Fri night. The front will bring about a return
to below normal temperatures to close out the week with largely mid
to upper 60s for highs and lows falling into the 40s. Lows Fri
morning look to be the coldest, with low to mid 40s and perhaps some
isolated upper 30s in outlying areas.

Come Sat, ridging over the TN valley will shift east and favor a
return flow with mild temperatures in the 70s. Some of the
deterministic models want to bring a shortwave or surface front to
the region Sat. However, most ensembles are slower, bringing any
lift/energy not until later Sun or early next week Mon. We have kept
the forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

MVFR to IFR ceilings and rain continue to spread over the region.

IFR ceilings should become widespread through the night and through
much of Sunday. There will be periods of rain and drizzle along with
some fog. Surface winds 15-25kt will occasionally gust to 30-32kt,
especially during the day Sunday. Rain should become more patchy and
lighter through 12z, with some uptick again during Sunday especially
in the southern half of central NC.

Outlook: Light rain or drizzle/fog with IFR ceilings should persist
into the overnight period tonight. The low will lift north into the
Delmarva area by Monday morning, behind which drier air should clear
out the sub-VFR cloudiness through Monday afternoon. VFR conditions
will then persist through the rest of the extended as high pressure
settles down the east coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RAH