469
FXUS62 KRAH 302014
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
314 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region early tonight.
Another area of cold high pressure will build briefly overhead
Monday, then offshore ahead of coastal low pressure that will
develop and rapidly strengthen while tracking along and offshore the
South and Middle Atlantic coasts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicted a strong short-wave
ejecting east over the Great Lakes region. At the sfc, latest obs
depict a sfc cold front moving east across central TN/KY. Ahead of
this front, the MIMIC-TPW satellite depicted weak moisture advection
into the Deep South/Southeast. With time, deeper moisture should
stream into the southeast and into central NC, but any stronger
upper forcing will remain well to our north. As such, expect just
continued light rain to stream west to east across our area through
the early overnight period. The actual cold front will pass through
central NC late tonight through early Monday morning, with a brief
period of 15 to 25 mph gusts possible between ~06 and 13Z for
locations outside the northwest Piedmont where CAD will keep things
stable. Additionally, a brief period of patchy dense fog will be
possible, primarily across the southern/western Piedmont ahead of
the front between ~03 and 8Z.  Overnight lows in the upper 20s/lower
30s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Sunday...

Monday will serve as a transitory day, as central NC remains wedged
between the departing system off the eastern seaboard, and a digging
upper trough across central US. Expect cool nely sfc flow via a sfc
high centered over New England with highs reaching the mid 40s to
around 50 in the south.

By late Monday night, the potent upper trough will begin to lift
across the TN Valley/eastern seaboard. Associated mid-level height
falls and anomalous moisture will spill across the Deep
South/southeast.  At the sfc, a low is forecast to develop over the
Gulf and ride north along the I-95 corridor through early to mid
Tuesday afternoon.

These sfc and upper features, along with a deep pool of moisture
will promote a good soaking of rain for us with amounts of 1 to 1.5
inches widely.  Most of the guidance is in good agreement riding the
sfc low through our Coastal Plain, keeping the warm sector along the
coast/to our south.  However, if this tracks slower and further
west, there could be a brief window of high shear/low CAPE overlap
in our far southeast counties. Hodographs are large and curved,
which, in this scenario could promote storm organization.  Think the
chances are limited as of now (better chances down in Georgia), but
we`ll monitor trends as we get into high-res guidance range.

The sfc low and associated rain/moisture will quickly skirt offshore
by late Tuesday afternoon, behind which nwly flow aloft and drying
will persist through 12Z Wednesday.  Overnight lows in the mid to
upper 20s are expected behind the system Tuesday night with some
gusty nwly winds of 20+ mph possible through Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

* Dry and continued unseasonably chilly/cold, while under the
  influence of a couple of cold highs mid to late week

* Wet late Fri-early Sat, with a slight chance of fleeting wintry
  across the Piedmont at onset

The pattern across the mid-latitudes will remain generally cold but
progressive through the period. The progressive nature of the
pattern will favor a continuation of transitory and weakening Arctic
highs as they migrate across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic,
then offshore. To get more than a cold rain into cntl NC, the next
system from the Southwest would need to eject quickly and interact,
briefly, with the retreating Arctic cold and dry, which the
deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates would be fleeting at
precipitation onset at best.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as chilly surface
high pressure builds in from the west. A second chilly high will
build down from the north on Friday before moving offshore. The next
wave will move across the Southeast US in the southwest flow aloft
sometime Friday/Saturday, potentially spawning a coastal low and
bringing additional precipitation. Details such as timing and
amounts are still uncertain at this time. Below-normal temperatures
will likely continue from Wednesday through Friday, with confidence
decreasing by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF
period. The approach of some light rain/showers ahead of a cold
front will favor a period of some IFR to MVFR restrictions, mainly
in the form of low ceilings, though some brief low visibilities are
possible at RDU and RWI. The main time period for these restrictions
are expected between 19 and 00z at GSO/INT and 00-07z at the eastern
terminals. There could be some brief IFR conditions prior to 20z at
GSO/INT but this should not be prolonged. As the front moves
through, rain will end, with a return to VFR, and some gustiness is
possible from the north of up to 20 kt, most favored at the eastern
terminals. These northerly gusts may continue through 18z Mon at
FAY/RWI. While prior LLWS was included in the TAFs, we omitted it
for the 18z package given a lack of pilot reports and SSW winds
developing, leading to only a minor potential.

Outlook: After VFR returns Mon, another storm system will bring
widespread rain and IFR or lower conditions late Mon night through
Tue. VFR returns Wed and Thu under high pressure. Another late-week
system may bring rain/showers late Fri-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...MWS/Danco
AVIATION...AK