120
FXUS62 KRAH 031747
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1247 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continental Polar high pressure will migrate across the Southeast
through early Thursday. A dry cold front will lead Arctic high
pressure across and offshore the Middle Atlantic later Thursday
through Friday, while weak waves of low pressure will track along a
wavy frontal zone from the northern Gulf to offshore the Southeast
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

* Unseasonably cold with variable cloudiness through the overnight
  period.

A broad area of 1022mb high pressure leaking across the southern
Appalachians will continue to drift eastward throughout the day
before becoming increasingly diffuse by Thurs morning. Patches of
flat strato-cumulus clouds, visible on satellite imagery over the
western Piedmont into the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, will provide
locally greater coverage of partly to mostly cloudy skies through
the afternoon before gradually thinning late this evening into
tonight.

Light surface winds will become more south to southwesterly through
the afternoon and keep surface dew points fairly steady as moisture
north of the stalled occluded front to our south counteracts the
very dry air just above the PBL. Limited horizontal moisture
advection is expected overnight within the weak pressure gradient,
but relatively moist afternoon crossover temperatures and pockets of
heavily saturated soils from Tues rainfall, may result in patchy
fog. Widespread fog is not anticipated as waves of cirrus with
varying thickness shift over the region overnight and should provide
an unfavorable factor to an otherwise excellent radiational cooling
night for radiation fog. Lows tonight will settle in the mid 20s to
low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 425 AM Wednesday...

* Increasing clouds and milder/more-seasonable Thu

* Precipitation developing, including a rain/snow mix that will
  probably transition to all snow for several hours across the nrn
  Piedmont, late Thu night-Fri morning

The mid/upr-level height gradient will tighten across the lower mid-
latitudes and contribute to the intensification of a powerful, 150-
175 kt upr-level jet across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic, where
u-wind anomalies are forecast to reach 3 sigma. It will do so in
response to the pivot of a negatively-tilted, nrn branch polar
shortwave trough across and offshore the Middle Atlantic and
Northeast, and as the srn branch polar and sub-tropical streams
merge and phase downstream of a couple of ejecting shortwave troughs
now centered over the Southwest and near 25N/125W, respectively. A
strengthening low/mid-level WAA regime, and also frontogenesis, will
result within the elongated jet entrance region, equatorward of the
jet core and across the Southeast.

At the surface, a dry cold front will lead Arctic high pressure
across the OH Valley and Middle Atlantic Thu and swd into NC by Fri
morning. The Arctic high will be favorably strong (~1028-1030 mb)
and located (over PA) for wintry precipitation in cntl NC Thu night
but then quickly weaken and progress offshore on Friday.

After a mostly sunny start to Thu, considerable mid and high-level
moisture, and associated combination of altocumulus and cirrostratus
ceilings, will overspread cntl NC through the afternoon and evening.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures Thu will probably
moderate into the 50s courtesy of both modification of the cP high
and airmass over the Southeast, and also wly/downslope flow at 850
mb.

Lift, initially centered in the mid-levels between 700-500 mb, will
cause a precipitation shield to blossom across the TN Valley and
expand quickly newd and across the srn Appalachians and especially
wrn Carolinas Thu night. Partial thickness and point forecast
soundings (top-down) suggest that as the precipitation shield begins
to overspread cntl NC Thu night, its nrn periphery will probably
transition from a mix of rain and snow across the nrn Piedmont to
all snow for several hours roughly along and north of I-85 Fri
morning, as thermal profiles trend toward deep, near freezing
isothermal, including into the near surface layer owing to diabatic
contributions from both evaporational cooling and melting of snow. A
very light coating may begin to accumulate over the nw Piedmont by
sunrise, with some additional light accumulation through the
morning, before thermal profiles trend above freezing amid continued
mid-level WAA and a lack of continued surface cold/dry advection
from the transitory and weakening surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

* Highest chances for precipitation still Friday into early Friday
  night, with lower confidence in chances Saturday through Monday.

* There may be some snow accumulation across the northern Piedmont
  and northern Coastal Plain Fri morning before mixing with and
  changing over to rain Fri afternoon.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd across the region Fri and offshore Fri
night as another s/w drops sewd into the cntl Plains. The second s/w
may finally help the longwave trough progress ewd across the cntl
and ern CONUS Fri night through Sun. Central NC should be under the
influence of wswly to swly flow through at least Sun. The second s/w
may move across the region Sun night/Mon, but model solutions vary
wrt the timing, amplitude, and available moisture. Another nrn
stream s/w may track across the Great Lakes/OH Valley and Northeast
US Tue/Tue night. At the surface, Arctic high pressure over the Tri-
State area Fri morning will shift ewd and off the New England coast
on Fri, while continuing to ridge swwd across the region. Meanwhile,
an area of low pressure will eject enewd across the Southeast US and
lift newd off and along the Carolina coast, along a quasi-stationary
front Fri/Fri night. There could be another wave/low that develops
and tracks along the front Sat/Sat night, following a similar track
as the previous low. Farther west, an area of low pressure may
develop off the srn Rockies over the srn Plains Sat night in
response to the s/w aloft. This low should track ewd across the lwr
MS Valley and Deep South on Sun, however there are considerable
model differences with this system that will influence its potential
impacts, or lack thereof, for central NC Sun night/Mon.

Precipitation: Fri still looks like the wettest day/eve in the
extended forecast. There is an increasing signal for another
possible round of precipitation between late Sat and Sun aft,
highest chances across the south and east. Sun night/Mon remains
fairly uncertain, but there is at least a slight chance for some
precipitation during that time.

P-types: While the majority of the precipitation from Fri to Mon is
expected to be liquid, some wintry precipitation is possible with
each of the rounds, mainly during the early morning timeframe and
especially across the northern portions of central NC. For the
Friday system, some snow may linger into the morning across the nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, with up to 0.5 inch accumulation
possible, before mixing with and becoming all rain during the
afternoon. Based on current timing, this could impact the morning
commute for locations along and north of the US-1 corridor. As the
low moves away Fri night/early Sat, there could be a brief period of
some fzra over the nrn Piedmont. Given the continued low confidence
and model differences, will hold off on specifics for Sat night
through Mon.

Temperatures: Highs will remain below normal Fri-Tue. Fri will the
coldest day, with highs ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE, some
15-20 degrees below normal. Highs Sat and Sun ranging from mid 40s
to around 50 degrees. Lows should generally remain near to slightly
below normal, generally ranging from upper 20s to low/mid 30s, with
the exception of Mon night, which could be several degrees lower,
but uncertainty remains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

Scattered to broken MVFR stratocumulus has indeed blossomed over the
Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills (nearest FAY) this afternoon. A
separate area around 3,500 to 5,000 ft stratocumulus from SC has
spread north into the southern Piedmont with fleeting low-VFR cigs
as far north as the Triad terminals. The MVFR stratocu may affect
FAY vicinity for the next several hours before lifting to around
3,000-4,000 ft this evening. There is a potential for FAY to remain
around high-MVFR cigs into late this evening, but opted for a more
optimistic forecast for now. Cooling temperatures tonight, atop
saturated soil from yesterday`s rain, will probably promote the
development of at least patchy fog Thu morning, with highest
probability of occurrence and lowest visibility restrictions from
near CLT to FAY to OCW to as far north as RWI.

Outlook: Another storm system is expected Fri into Sat and will
likely bring flight restrictions to all central NC terminals. A
period of snow/sleet remains possible for the northern terminals
(GSO/INT/RDU) Fri morning before transitioning to all rain by the
afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...AS/MWS