609
FXUS62 KRAH 240543
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1242 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
through tonight. A wedge front will develop and become quasi-
stationary over the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas and
Georgia Tuesday through Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
across the region early Wednesday night. Cold high pressure will
follow and build from northwestern Canada to the Middle Atlantic
through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

Clear skies and drier air will dominate into today as high pressure
will be over the region. The high pressure will move offshore this
afternoon and tonight. A WAA pattern will return that will be
especially notable Tuesday. Expect sunny skies today with highs in
the lower to mid 60s with light wind. Expect mainly clear skies
tonight with some periodic high cloudiness. Lows in the upper 30s NE
ranging into the mid 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

* Unsettled weather Tue through Wed night.

* Dry and colder Thu through Sat, then moderating Sun.

Tue-Wed night: Still anticipating an active period, with models in
fairly good agreement on timing and amplitude of a sharpening mid
level trough tracking from the Dakotas/Upper Midwest across the U.P.
of MI to the Ontario/Quebec border. The surface high just off the
Mid Atlantic coast Tue morning will push further out over the NW
Atlantic during the day, putting NC in a deepening return flow
pattern, with falling heights aloft as the mid level ridge over the
Southeast flattens and pushes offshore. The LREF ensemble cluster
analysis shows small variations which can be largely explained by
differences in trough amplitude, with decreased timing differences
from yesterday`s runs. PW increases Tue particularly over our NW
half, where moist isentropic upglide at 290K-305K also strengthens,
supporting chance to low-end likely pops spreading into N and W
sections where PW will trend to over 200% of normal. MUCAPE Tue
should be no greater than 200 J/kg, but with high deep-layer bulk
shear and periods of enhanced upper divergence passing overhead from
the upper jet streak to our NW, we could see an isolated afternoon
storm or two across the N and W. Regarding temps Tue, the departing
surface high is of mild continental origin with a lack of strong
cold/dry air advection from the N that might prompt strong CAD
formation. But with rain chances arriving in our NW early in the day
when surface dewpoints may still be in the 40s, development of at
least a surface-based stable pool is favored in the NW Piedmont.
Temps in the Triad may struggle to reach the upper 50s/near 60,
while in our southeast within good WAA and thinner clouds, highs in
the 70-75 range are expected. Lows Tue night are expected to be
quite mild, in the mid 50s to around 60. The most likely time of
cold front passage through central NC is mid to late Wed afternoon,
slightly faster than that indicated in yesterday`s models.
Prefrontal PW will remain well above normal Tue night through much
of Wed, so will retain above-climo pops. We have another chance for
a few thunderstorms Wed ahead of the front, with the greatest
potential for MUCAPE of 200-600 J/kg over our SE half. We`ll still
have strong deep layer bulk shear of 50-60 kts with long and
generally straight hodographs, so a few strong storms with sub-
severe gusts and small hail could occur, best chance S and E of the
Triangle. Expect highs Wed in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with lows
behind the front Wed night in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thu-Sun: Within post-front subsidence, expect lots of sunshine
Thanksgiving Day, with fair, dry, and cool conditions through Sat as
the mid level trough shifts over E NOAM. Despite the abundant
sunshine, since the incoming surface high will be of Canadian/Arctic
origin, the CAA will keep temps below normal, esp Fri through Sat as
the surface high settles overhead and just to our N. We should see
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thanksgiving Day and Sat, and mid
40s to lower 50s Fri, with are about 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
Lows should be coldest Fri night, in the 20s. As the mid level
trough lifts quickly NE over the Canadian Maritimes into the far N
Atlantic over the weekend, our mid level flow will back and
strengthen from the SW, while at the surface, the high will track
over the Mid Atlantic region Sat then off the New England coast Sun.
This will result in a gradual air mass modification with increasing
high clouds from the SW Sun. Expect continued dry weather, though,
with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Late this
afternoon, some mid to upper level VFR clouds should start to spread
over the region from the west.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain will likely
overspread the Piedmont ahead of a retreating warm front Tuesday
morning. A chance of showers and also flight restrictions are
expected later Tuesday through Wednesday, as a strong frontal system
traverses the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett/LH