953
FXUS62 KRAH 090614
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
214 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through
Friday. Low pressure will develop near the SE coast on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 214 AM Thursday...

Breezy NE winds to 25 mph this morning through mid-afternoon.

Sunny and cooler.

The cold front continued to advance quickly to the south through SC
early this morning. A large, cool, and dry surface high pressure
(1032+ mb) was located over MI. The high pressure will continue to
build east and south down the eastern seaboard today and tonight.
Much drier and cooler air will overspread the region. The winds will
be NE at 15-25 mph just after sunrise. The gusty wind will diminish
during the mid to late afternoon to around 10 mph. Expect mainly
sunny skies today and clear tonight. There should be some high
cloudiness late tonight in the east and south. Highs today expected
to be in the mid 60s N to lower 70s S. Lows tonight in the mid
40s to mid 50s N to SE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 214 PM Thursday...

Increasing cloudiness and remaining cool.

The large surface high pressure will continue to extend southwest
into the region as the core of the high shifts east and off the New
England coast. The flow will become more easterly along the coast
a trough develops just offshore. Low pressure is expected to develop
off the FL coast and begin to track to the north. Expect an increase
in cloudiness, especially in the east and south through Friday and
Friday night. It will remain cool with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Lows in the 50s to near 60 SE. Only a slight chance of
light rain late Friday night and early Saturday in the SE Coastal
Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 138 AM Thursday...

* Continuing to watch a coastal low in the Sat to Mon time period.
  Rainfall amounts still not set in stone, with highest amounts over
  eastern sections. Gusty winds upwards of 30 mph favored Sat/Sun

* Below normal highs to start the extended trend above normal early
  to middle of next week

The main story in the extended continues to be the development and
track of a coastal low in the Sat to Mon time period. The jury is
still out on its overall track, regarding whether it takes a more
western position close to the Outer Banks by Sun, or whether it
stays offshore per the Canadian solution. Even a look at the
ensembles, there still appears to be some decent spread. Part of
this uncertainty lies in how a shortwave presently over northern
Saskatchewan interacts with the southern wave off the SE US coast.
Remarkably, the ECWMF and GFS AI solutions remain closely aligned
the past several days, with the low tracking from the Outer Banks
Sun to off Delmarva by Mon. The main time frame appears Sat
afternoon and evening through Sun, though the system could linger
into early next week with some precipitation in our northeast zones.
Median rainfall amounts could range from a few hundredths over the
western Piedmont to a quarter to half inch in the Triangle to around
an inch over the Coastal Plain. Of course, the further west (east)
solutions would be about double (half) those rain amounts. Gusty
winds from the NNE are favored Sat and Sun afternoons of 30 mph,
especially in the east, with some 40+ kts at 925 mb.

Temperatures should be below normal to start the extended in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s, but trend above average Tue/Wed as ridging
spreads east from the MS valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...


VFR conditions are favored through 06z/Friday. A band of
stratocumulus based around 3-5 thousand ft AGL will linger post-
frontal tonight, then clear from north to south toward daybreak. NE
winds will be gusty through early morning, then diminish a bit around
daybreak, then pick back up at 15-25kt by mid-morning. Winds will
decrease to around 10kt later today.

Outlook: Coastal low pressure will favor a chance of flight
restrictions and rain at ern TAF sites this weekend, otherwise VFR
to the west.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RAH