146
FXUS62 KRAH 302342 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will continue to settle south of the area through
tonight. A developing area of low pressure off the SE Coast will
move further offshore as high pressure to our north extends
south into the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 PM Saturday...

The backdoor front continues to slide south into our southern
Coastal Plain/Piedmont/Sandhills this afternoon. KFAY/KCTZ/KMEB are
still showing an esely wind with temps in the mid to upper 80s. Just
north of these sites, temps have dropped into the upper 70s/lower
80s. Along this front, a slim cu field has developed.  Can`t fully
rule out a few showers in this vicinity (maybe an isolated t-storm),
but overall, mostly dry conditions are expected through the period.
Any lingering clouds in our southern areas should dissipate as the
front slides into SC. Overnight should be generally mostly clear,
with lows in the mid to upper 50s (lower 60s across the NC/SC
border). Some patchy fog could be possible early Sunday morning,
especially across the northern Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM Saturday...

The sfc front will stall to our south on Sunday as nely sfc flow
locks in across central NC. Could see a few 15 to 20 kt gusts across
the south Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, a weak mid-level low will
will round out the base of the long-wave east coast trough and ooze
across the mid-Atlantic through Sunday evening. While forcing from
this feature appears negligible, enhanced easterly low-level flow
will likely trigger mountain and foothills convection Sunday
afternoon and evening. A few isolated cells could trickle into our
western Piedmont, but even the latest HREF is showing very low
probabilities for any measurable precipitation in our area. As
such, will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Otherwise expected
cooler highs in the lower 80s with periods of mid to high level
cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Saturday...

* Below normal temperatures continue through much of the week.

* Precip chances increase late Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a
  cold front.

Upper level troughing over the region will linger throughout the
week, with a few embedded short waves passing over. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes region early
Monday morning will slowly shift east and by Tuesday will be over
the Northeast and offshore by early Wednesday. Rain chances will be
limited Monday and Tuesday as high pressure seeps in from the
north/north east.

As a weak frontal boundary lingers across the Southeast Tuesday and
Wednesday, it begins to lift north and east Thursday. A few models
show a weak low developing off the coast Wed/Thurs slightly
increasing rain chances along the coast and portions of our
Sandhills and Southern Coastal Plain counties Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Meanwhile another frontal boundary over
the MS valley will inch east as the coastal low develops off the
coast smooshing central NC in between the two systems. Latest models
have slowed down the frontal passage as before it was expected to
move across the region Thursday evening and now has slowed down to
early Friday. Either way, expect increased precip chances Wed
through Thursday with another burst of low end chances of precip
Friday afternoon and evening as the front exits the region. Saturday
is expected to be cool and dry.

Temperatures during the long term will remain below average. Highs
Mon-Wed will be in the mid/upper 70s NW to low 80s SE with Thursday
expected to be the warmest day with highs ranging from 79-86
degrees. Fri/Sat high temps will be slightly cooler in the mid/upper
70s to low/mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s to low
60s Mon-Wed. Thursday lows will be in the 60s, then falling back
down into the upper 50s to low 60s Fri-Sat.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM Saturday...

TAF period: The sfc cold front, currently across far southeastern
NC, will continue to settle south through tonight. Isolated
convection has developed just north of the front, over the
Sandhills, where weak instability and agitated cu developed.
Additional isolated showers or storms are possible over the next
hour or two, mainly near KFAY, as a seabreeze-outflow boundary
continues to lift north into the area. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions through the 24 hr TAF period. Hi-res model guidance
continues to suggest a chance for some IFR to MVFR ceilings at KINT
and KGSO around daybreak Sunday, with VFR dominating thereafter
as high pressure settles into the area from the north.

Winds will remain light tonight, while becoming NELY. Occasional
gustiness of 15 to 20 kts are expected during the day Sunday, mainly
across eastern (KFAY and KRWI) and central (KRDU) taf sites.
Expect periods of mid to high level cloudiness.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are then expected Monday through
Wednesday. Rain chances may increase late week with the potential
for a weak coastal low to develop late Wednesday into Thursday,
followed by an approach of a cold front from the west. However,
aviation impacts are expected to be limited.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL