468
FXUS62 KRAH 161043
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north today with the upper ridge building in the southeast U.S. from
off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the convection to widely
scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities will be along the
SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along the Blue Ridge.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with partly to mostly
sunny afternoon skies. Lows generally in the lower 70s west and mid
70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

Hotter and humid weather continues...

Widely scattered PM thunderstorms.

The westward extension of the Bermuda high will extend over NC on
Thursday. There will be a bit of a suppression of convection
chances. However, widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected
during the late afternoon through mid-evening mainly over the
Piedmont. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

* Hot, with little overnight relief until perhaps Sat night, with
  mainly Moderate to Major HeatRisk (pockets of Extreme possible in
  the Sandhills) through the weekend

* Heat Advisory criteria heat will be most likely and prolonged
  across the Sandhills and srn and cntl Coastal Plain, and probably
  into at least parts of the adjacent srn through ne Piedmont and
  nrn Coastal Plain on Fri

The center of a sub-tropical anticyclone at 500 mb will progress
from the swrn N. Atlantic (near Grand Bahama at 12Z Fri) to the nrn
Gulf/lwr MS Valley through the weekend, then nwd into the mid-South
through mid-week. As it does so, Grand Ensemble guidance continues
to depict a weakness between the center of that ridge and another
forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N. Atlantic. Such a
solution would cause mid/upr-level flow to assume a more wnwly
component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCVs into at least
the nrn half of NC by Sat through early next week.

At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with an Appalachian lee (Piedmont) trough on
its wrn/nwrn periphery. Model guidance also continues to indicate a
convective outflow-reinforced front will settle across VA Fri and
perhaps into nrn NC by Sat, as the aforementioned flow aloft veers
and introduces the possibility of very weakly falling heights aloft.
The outflow-renforced and modulated front may then waver over the
srn Middle Atlantic, and into especially nrn NC, through early next
week.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will cause an
already hot airmass to further heat to the south of the outflow-
reinforced front, where high temperatures will be well into the 90s
through most of the forecast period. Occasional reprieve from the
heat, and closer to average highs in the upr 80s to around 90, will
be possible poleward of the aforementioned front Sat onward. The
probability of showers and storms will be favored over the nrn half
of NC through the period, where the front will be favored to waver
and related outflow to influence localized lift.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM Wednesday...

Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for areas of low
stratus to be around between 12Z to 14z, leading to a period of MVFR
to IFR restrictions in spots. These restrictions should lift by mid
Wednesday morning, returning conditions to VFR.

Shower and storm chances are expected to be lower this afternoon and
evening, less than 30 percent at most sites. The best chances should
focused along the inland-moving seabreeze, possibly impacting the
southern areas late day (KFAY).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, along with patchy
late night and early morning fog and stratus through the end of the
week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett