688
FXUS62 KRAH 142354
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances aloft will combine with a stalled front over
VA to bring rounds of showers/storms through the weekend. Strong
high pressure aloft over the northwest Atlantic will build
westward into the region through early to mid next week, bringing
hot and humid conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

*Persistence forecast with isolated flash flooding possible this
afternoon and evening

A persistent deep SWLY flow between the weakening upper trough
advancing east into the TN Valley and subtropical ridging off the
Florida coast, will maintain anomalously moist conditions across the
region with PWATs of 2-2.25" ranking in the 95-98th percentile.

A series of weak disturbances embedded in the moist sw flow will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms through this
evening. One such disturbance is currently driving a cluster of
storms that`s advancing into the Triad from the west. This area of
storms is expected to be the primary sensible weather impact as it
progresses eastward across the northern half of the forecast area
through 03z-04z.

Pockets of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding remain the primary
threat. The latest HREF probability match mean guidance
suggests the highest risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
may develop across portions of the northwest and northern Piedmont
this afternoon and evening, as a band of showers and storms shift
eastward from the higher terrain. Urban areas and places with
already saturated soils---particularly across the western Sandhills
and southern Piedmont---will be more vulnerable to flooding impacts,
following rainfall of 3-4" of rainfall over the past 2 days.

While weak shear and moist lapse rates aloft will limit storm
organization, isolated pulse-type strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out.

Widespread cloud cover and rain chances will temper daytime
temperatures. Highs generally mainly in the mid 80s to upper 80s,
with a few locations warming into the lower 90s.

Storm chances will decrease through the evening and overnight hours,
though isolated showers may linger into early Sunday morning due to
deep moisture in place. Continued muggy with overnight with the
development of widespread stratus. Lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

The boundary that is currently loitering around the Mason-Dixon line
will drift south, dropping near the Virginia-North Carolina border
Sunday morning. It appears likely that at least some of the boundary
will manage to push south into North Carolina, more likely across
the northeastern portion of the state. Considering the proximity of
the boundary, have gone with categorical pops in most locations,
except for a small area of likely pops across the southwest.

Although the peak in coverage is likely to be in the late afternoon,
the HREF and GEFS are both picking up on a precipitation maxima in
amounts occurring across southeastern Virginia and northeastern
North Carolina Sunday evening. Locally, there is the potential for
at least 3 inches of rain, with Halifax County being the most likely
area to receive the heavy rainfall. The bulk of the heaviest
rainfall over the last three days has been across southern counties,
and flash flood guidance remains high in Halifax County, so there is
not enough confidence to issue a flood watch at this time. The most
recent issuance of the Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the Weather
Prediction Center has much of the area north of US-64 in a slight
(level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, the bulk of
the forecast area (except southern counties) remains in a marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather tomorrow, with damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. If severe weather occurs, the most likely
time window is late afternoon into the early evening.

With greater cloud coverage tomorrow, high temperatures should be
slightly cooler, with only isolated locations reaching the 90s. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Most of the extended forecast will feature typical North Carolina
diurnally-driven summertime convection. With the boundary remaining
in the area on Monday, expect greater than normal coverage of
thunderstorms, with 60-80% coverage expected. The GEFS highlights
the potential for some heavier rainfall again Monday evening,
although not as much as Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected in most locations again on Tuesday, with decreasing
coverage Wednesday and Thursday. However, another boundary should be
moving through the area sometime on Thursday, and depending on the
time the boundary moves through, machine-learning models are
indicating the potential for severe weather, although confidence is
not high enough to be included in an outlook from the Storm
Prediction Center yet. After the boundary moves through on Friday,
coverage of showers/storms should diminish Friday and Saturday,
anywhere between 10-30%.

While highs will be in the 80s on Monday, temperatures will rise
into the middle of the week, with widespread upper 80s to the mid
90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Heat index values will reach into the
triple digits, particular across southeastern counties, on Wednesday
and Thursday. Highs may drop a couple degrees on Friday and
Saturday, but the majority of locations will still rise into the
90s. Considering lows will only fall into the 70s most nights,
nighttime will provide little relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM Saturday...

Scattered slow-moving showers and storms are currently in the
vicinity of INT/GSO and may bring a short period of gusty/erratic
winds and MVFR conditions prior to 02z. Further east, these same
shower/storm clusters could impact RDU in the mid-late evening,
mainly 01z to 03z, and RWI from 02z to 04z. Confidence in any storms
near FAY is too low to include in the TAF at this time, but a storm
near FAY is not out of the question between 03z and 06z. Otherwise,
central NC terminals are currently VFR, but a downturn to MVFR cigs
is likely after 07z, with a window of IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in fog
possible 09z-13z. The confidence in these low cigs Sun morning is
not high, as some models are suggesting that any low clouds will be
just patchy or scattered, perhaps due to extensive mid and high
convective debris cloudiness and/or stronger surface winds in those
models. That said, given the considerable low level moisture and
light surface winds overnight, we do expect development of some MVFR
to briefly IFR cigs. Any low clouds should slowly break up and lift
to VFR by around 15z-17z. Another round of scattered showers and
storms is expected late in this TAF period, affecting INT/GSO and
RDU, but will go no worse than a chance of MVFR vsbys in showers for
now. Surface winds will light/variable tonight and mainly from the
SSW or SW under 10 kts after 15z Sun.

Looking beyond 00z Mon, scattered to numerous showers and storms,
focused from mid afternoon through the evening hours, are expected
through Sun evening and again Mon and Tue afternoon/evening. A
period of sub-VFR cigs is possible early Mon morning and early Tue
morning. The chance for storms and early-morning low clouds will
decrease for Wed/Thu as high pressure builds aloft. -GIH

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield
EQUIPMENT...RAH