371
FXUS62 KRAH 131902
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* In addition to the current Heat Advisory, we`ve issued another
  Heat Advisory for Fri, over a slightly larger area, still mainly
  from the Triangle region to the S and E. Additionally, in many
  areas, there may not be much of a break from the heat over the
  weekend after all.

* Isolated strong to low-end severe storms remain possible Friday
  afternoon and evening, mainly over our N and NE, but exact timing
  remains uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

1) Dangerous heat and humidity will persist through at least Friday,
and the weekend now looks a bit hotter than previously thought,
especially across our south. The dangerous heat and humidity is
likely to peak on Monday.

2) Isolated strong to low-end severe storms remain possible Friday
afternoon and evening, mainly over our N and NE, but exact timing
remains uncertain. Isolated to scattered late-day storms are
possible daily through next Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity will persist through at
least Friday, and the weekend now looks a bit hotter than previously
thought, especially across our south. The dangerous heat and
humidity is likely to peak on Monday.

The presence of an intensifying and persistent mid level dome of
high pressure over the interior Southeast, Gulf states, and lower
Miss Valley will foster several days of above-normal heat and
humidity for central NC. Model low-level thicknesses are projected
to be 10-20 m above normal through at least Tue, with the highest
levels tomorrow and on Mon. With inflow of Gulf and Atlantic
moisture greatly curbed by low-mid level ridging spanning the
Southeast states, late-day storm coverage is expected to be
scattered at most, albeit with below-normal confidence (see
convection discussion below), which should allow for ample heating
each day through at least mid afternoon. But the real wild card here
remains the Midwest and Ohio Valley MCS activity and whether or not
their remnant cloud shields or MCVs will track through NC, as any
added cloud cover through peak heating will affect our high temps.
Predictability of this is quite low beyond 24 hours out, so for now
will figure that any clouds in our area will be mostly thin or with
sporadic ceilings, thereby resulting in decent insolation.

For Fri, highs of 90-98 are expected. While surface dewpoints are
expected to again dip a bit in the afternoon due to mixing, they
should still be higher than today`s, resulting in peak heat indices
of 105F to near 110F over the southern two-thirds. Sat should see a
slight dip in highs as a weak front or boundary drops S into the
area, but continued high dewpoints may still result in a peak heat
index around 105F across the S. This boundary washes out Sun,
setting up another upturn in heat, with air temps from the mid 90s
to around 100 expected Mon, and only a category or so lower on
Tue/Wed. Additional heat advisories or warnings may be needed this
weekend through the middle of next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Isolated strong to low-end severe storms remain
possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly over our N and NE, but
exact timing remains uncertain. Isolated to scattered late-day
storms are possible daily through next Thu.

The overall central/E CONUS pattern will remain largely the same
heading into the weekend, featuring a quasi-stationary NW-to-SE
frontal zone (which could actually waver significantly in spots
based on the whims of convective complexes and outflows) from the
Midwest through Ohio Valley and NC. This front will be aligned with
a swift and perturbed NW steering flow from the Upper Midwest
through the Mid Atlantic, on the N and NE side of the building mid
level ridge covering the interior Southeast, Gulf States, and lower
Miss Valley. This will put central NC within the path of potentially
multiple MCS remnants or MCVs tracking ESE or SE into our area over
the next few days, all with poor predictability beyond 24 hrs.

Through tonight, while an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled
out mainly over the W Piedmont into early evening, the poor mid
level lapse rates, dry boundary layer, and marginal PWs will greatly
limit coverage. For Fri, the residual cloud shield from the MCS now
over IL is expected to largely track to our N, however it could lay
down an outflow boundary that drifts into N NC, helping to focus the
better convection chances across our N and E, although an isolated
cell could occur anywhere. Deep layer bulk shear should be 20-25 kt,
a little higher tomorrow than today, with greater heating producing
higher afternoon SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, and PW nearing 130% of
normal, so late-day storm coverage Fri should be higher, again
mainly over the NE.

As we`ll stay within this steamy air mass through the weekend with
hot temps, high humidity, and slight above-normal PW, isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers will remain possible, with
late-day CAPE peaking near 1500-3000 J/kg. Most models show the mid
level ridge gradually flattening and sinking southward to across the
S Plains and Gulf Coast through the middle of next week, with
another uptick in WNW mid level flow. Thus, scattered diurnal-
favored showers and storms will remain possible through mid week,
although not every place will see activity every day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

The chance for sub-VFR conditions is very low at all central NC
terminals over the next 24 hours, and VFR conditions are likely to
dominate. Periods of sct-bkn mid and high cloudiness aoa 12 kft AGL
will continue spreading SE into NC from upstream storm complexes
well to our NW. A few cu based at 5-6 kft are also possible, both
this afternoon and again toward the end of the TAF period. A stray
shower or storm is possible mainly at INT/GSO through early evening,
and again after 17z Fri, but overall the chances are very low and
any activity will be quite isolated, so will not include any
precipitation at any terminals at this time. Surface winds will be
light, under 10 kts, mainly from the WNW or NW through Fri.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, scattered late-day showers and storms are
possible each day through Mon, although the predictability of this
will remain rather low, reducing forecast confidence. A few hours of
patchy early-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with
the highest chances in areas that see rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 13: KRDU: 100/2021 KFAY: 100/2007

August 14: KRDU: 100/1995 KFAY: 100/1918

August 16: KFAY: 100/1943

August 17: KGSO: 99/1988 KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016

August 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017

August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005

August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021

August 19: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ025>028-040>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ041>043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield