892
FXUS62 KRAH 190610
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from WV into VA will shift south across NC
this afternoon and evening before settling across GA and SC on
Thursday. High pressure will ridge across the Middle Atlantic for
Thursday through early Friday before the front lifts north across
the Carolinas and into VA as a warm front on Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

A mid/upr-level cyclone over ern IA will deamplify as it progresses
generally ewd to the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Wed.

At the surface, a frontal zone over nrn and nern NC at 19Z, and
which separated upr 60s to around 70 F over srn NC from 30s and 40s
F across the Virginias, will retreat nwd into srn VA this evening,
ahead of a weak frontal wave that will track across and offshore VA
tonight.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and surface frontal wave will be
accompanied by a preceding zone of warm, moist air advection that
will weaken as it progresses east of the Appalachians tonight but
which will maintain a weakening band of rain/showers across
primarily the nrn half of cntl NC from approximately midnight
through sunrise. Associated rainfall amounts will be spotty and
light at generally a tenth of an inch or less, before the rain moves
ewd and offshore Wed morning. A combination of light swly surface
winds in the warm sector and ahead of the frontal wave, and multi-
layered ceilings that will be most extensive over nrn NC, will favor
unseasonably mild temperatures mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

* Temperatures trending cooler during the day and more mild
  overnight.

The cold front that pushed through the area Wed night will stall
over the Southeast near the SC/GA border by Thurs morning. This
boundary is not expected to move much throughout the day as broad
high pressure over the Northeast ridging down through our area will
weaken and collapse south and settle over the western Atlantic off
the Southeast coast by 12z Fri. There remains quite a large spread
in the maximum temperature guidance for Thurs and is directly tied
to the extent of the low overcast Thurs morning and how quickly it
erodes through the afternoon. Even so, low level thickness from
global models struggle to get out of the mid 1330s, especially
across northeast NC during the daylight hours. Trended forecast
temperatures closer to statistical and higher resolution guidance
which now results in temperatures ranging from around 70 (SE) to mid
50s (NE). High temperatures could still be 3-7 degrees cooler, but
will be highly dependent on cloud cover persisting through the
afternoon hours. Further temperature adjustments will likely be
necessary in subsequent updates.

Increasing and lowering cloud bases, and possibly the redevelopment
of low stratus, will keep temperatures overnight quite mild (mid 40s
to low 50s, which is 10-15 degrees above normal), despite most
locations likely going calm within the ridge axis of high pressure
and further weakening pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

* Fine details of the forecast for Fri night into Sat remain fairly
  uncertain and keeps forecast confidence low.

The remnants of the deep mid/upper low rotating near the Baja
Peninsula currently will eject northeast into the Central Plains by
Fri morning. This wave will significantly de-amplify as it tracks
across the Ohio Valley Fri night and across the Mid-Atlantic on Sat.
This feature will bring our next chance for rain, but is devoid of
any significant synoptic forcing over central NC. Locally enhanced
waves of WAA will likely spread multi-layered cloudiness across the
area and accompany some light rain Fri night into Sat. The best
chances for rain may be tied very closely to the weak area of low
pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
where locally enhanced WAA and isentropic ascent would be maximized.
Ensemble-member pressure center plots from the EPS and GEFS still
show a large spread in track and speed with this wave so forecast
confidence remains low at this time.

Confidence briefly increases behind this wave as a parade of
modified high pressure systems shift across the Mid-Atlantic through
Mon night and keep the forecast dry and temperatures above normal.
The forecast may trend more active Tues onward as a closed-low,
which is forecast to be rotating around the Four Corners Region over
the upcoming weekend, tracks in our direction early to mid week.
Confidence is highly uncertain on timing and intensity with this
system and results in a low confidence forecast approaching the
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

A band of weakening showers will spread east across northern NC
early this morning bringing a risk of brief and isolated MVFR VSBYS
of 5SM across the KINT and KGSO terminals between 06 and 11Z. This
precipitation will continue to weaken potentially bringing VFR
sprinkles to the KRDU and KRWI terminals through just after
daybreak. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected today and this
evening. Later tonight, primarily after 06Z an area of MVFR stratus
will likely develop across the northern Piedmont, especially the
KRWI and KRDU terminals. Light south to southwest winds at 5 to
10kts this morning will veer to northwesterly this afternoon and
become northeasterly tonight.

Also of note, the development of a 40-45 kt southwesterly low level
jet early this morning will result in periods of low-level wind
shear through just after daybreak. The LLWS will be favored across
the Triad terminals through around 10Z and across the KRDU, KRWI and
KFAY terminals between 08 and 14Z.

Outlook: A good deal of cloud cover will lower and result in periods
of MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings early Thursday morning and again
Friday morning. A modest weather system may bring showers and
associated flight restrictions late Friday through Saturday evening.
Improving weather conditions are expected on Sunday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...Blaes