766
FXUS62 KRAH 010616
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* An Excessive Heat Watch was considered for the Triangle and
  Coastal Plain Wednesday into Friday. It appears that we will fall
  a bit short of the criteria of 110+ heat index values.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

1) The Heat Wave will peak with Heat Advisories likely for a good
portion of the area from Wednesday into Friday.

2) Labor Day weekend through Monday gradually trends cooler along
with highest thunderstorm chances on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The Heat Wave will peak with Heat Advisories likely
for a good portion of the area from Wednesday into Friday.

The high heat and humidity will really get going this afternoon when
highs will top out in the 90s. Heat indices are expected to fall
just short of the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees for several
hours. Most areas from the Triangle east and south will have heat
indices of 100 to 104, thus it would still be a good idea to prepare
for the day as if an advisory is in effect.

The heat will peak this week from Wednesday into Friday. This is
when the upper ridge will park overhead at 595dm overhead of the TN
valley to the mid-Atlantic coast. This is slightly lower heights
than what was observed during the early July heat wave. Other than
an isolated thunderstorm, chances less than 15 percent at any one
point, expect mostly sunny hot days and very warm and humid nights
from tonight into Friday. Highs should be hottest Wednesday and
Thursday (mid 90s to near 100), with Friday potentially as hot.

Even overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s for many areas.
An Excessive Heat Watch was considered for the Triangle and Coastal
Plain for Wed-Fri (as overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80
and heat indices potentially approach 110 during the peak of the
afternoon heat each day). We held off for now - but it will be
considered in later shifts.

Heat index values in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees are
expected each day with areas from Raleigh east and south will be
most likely to surpass 105 degrees. Some areas may approach 110
degrees during peak heating. Heat advisories appear likely.

There is a chance of mainly PM thunderstorms Friday and Saturday as
the upper ridge begins to break down and shift back to the west for
a time. Temperatures will back off some, especially Saturday and
Sunday when mostly mid to upper 80s are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Labor Day weekend through Monday gradually trends
cooler along with highest thunderstorm chances on Saturday.

Ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual westward shift of the
upper ridge this weekend, allowing troughing and an approaching cold
front to bring a cooler pattern change to central NC by later in the
weekend. Temps still expected to trend slightly downward Saturday,
but still remaining well above normal with highs in the lower to mid
90s.  A more substantial cooldown is expected Sunday into Labor Day
with highs in the mid 80s. High pressure building in behind the
front may also bring a reduction in humidity by Monday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase Friday into Saturday
as the front approaches, with the best opportunity for convection
Saturday. Scattered showers or storms could potentially linger into
Sunday, but the best chances will be particularly south and east of
Raleigh. Overall, the trend toward cooler and drier conditions for
Sunday and Labor Day is becoming increasingly well supported. While
a severe threat cannot be ruled out Saturday, predictability remains
too low to determine the magnitude or coverage of any severe weather
threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 12z/Wednesday as high
pressure strengthens over the region.

Looking beyond 12z Wed, VFR conditions should dominate into Friday.
The chance of PM thunderstorms will increase Fri/Sat as deep low
pressure and troughing over the Northeast states nudges the ridge
westward, thus the chance for sub-VFR conditions will rise starting
late Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 1: KGSO: 99/1932  KRDU: 101/1932

September 2: KGSO: 101/1921  KRDU: 99/1912

September 3: KGSO: 101/1921  KRDU: 99/2010  KFAY: 101/2010

September 4: KRDU: 100/1925  KFAY: 100/1944


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 1: KGSO: 74/2012  KRDU: 76/1932  KFAY: 77/2021

September 2: KGSO: 73/1912  KRDU: 75/1912  KFAY: 75/2020

September 3: KGSO: 73/2020  KRDU: 78/1933  KFAY: 77/2020

September 4: KGSO: 72/2018  KRDU: 74/1921  KFAY: 75/2020

September 5: KGSO: 73/2018  KRDU: 74/2012  KFAY: 74/1935

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/np
AVIATION...Badgett