229
FXUS62 KRAH 220608
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
208 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Drier, cooler, less humidity Sunday into Tuesday night.

*  Shower and storm chances return with higher humidity late
   next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

1) Lingering showers and storms are possible again today, with a
possible low-end severe risk over the northwest Piedmont.

2) Drier weather, along with lower relative humidities and
cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-week. PM shower
and storm chances return mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering showers and storms are possible again
today, with a possible low-end severe risk over the northwest
Piedmont.

Central NC continues to be in that moist and unstable pattern
today. An upper-level trough will remain to our west through
tonight as a shortwave dives southeastward into the Lower Great
Lakes. Tied to that shortwave trough will be a surface cold
front slated to move through portions of central NC by early
Sunday morning. A surface front persists across our southern and
eastern zones, and will be a continued focus for off and on
isolated, to at times scattered, showers and storms this
morning and afternoon to the early evening hours. However,
confidence on overall coverage is not particularly high.

Across the west, the approaching shortwave this evening, ahead
of the cold front, will favor some isolated/scattered storm
activity across the northwest Piedmont, perhaps holding together
before dissipating east of the Triangle late tonight. Several
HREF members indicate this potential in the 7pm to 1am time
frame, though coverage may be quite isolated with timing being
near sunset and slightly drier air working in from the west. If
any storms can materialize, there is adequate deep shear of
30-35 kt with 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE. SPC has introduced a
Marginal Risk of severe storms, just west of the Triad. We would
not be surprised if that risk area is expanded eastward.
Damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier weather, along with lower relative
humidities and cooler temperatures, is expected Sunday into mid-
week. PM shower and storm chances return mid to late next week.

A mid/upper level trough will be positioned over the eastern United
States Sunday into mid-week. This will mean cooler and drier weather
for our region as surface high pressure builds from the Midwest
Sunday to the mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. Cooler and drier air
will advect into the region Sunday and Sunday night with highs in
the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and lows Sunday night in the 60s.

Monday into Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with dew
points dipping into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday. Some return
moisture will raise the dew points back into mostly 60s by
Wednesday. Daytime highs should top out in the 83-88 range each day
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s (north-central to SE).

A chance of mainly PM showers/storms will return as early as
Wednesday (20-30 percent), and more likely Thursday (40-60 percent
chance). Highs will return to the upper 80s to lower 90s by
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

Areas of low stratus in the LIFR/IFR range are expected to
develop and become widespread over the terminals into Saturday
morning. There is the potential that fog may develop across some
of the terminals. The latest satellite imagery reveals that some
mid/high clouds have started to disperse, allowing this
potential given light surface winds. Nearly any terminal has the
fog potential, but we have the highest confidence at RDU, though
did not include visibilities below 1 mile at this point. We will
continue to monitor observational trends and adjust as needed.
The CAMs continue to show developing showers and isolated storms
into early Saturday across the eastern terminals, but opted to
leave out any showers given a lack of confidence. Sub-VFR
stratus will gradually lift to VFR between 17-20z, as south-
southwest winds develop with heating. Isolated storms are
possible at RDU, FAY, and RWI in the late afternoon and early
evening, but confidence is too low to mention at this time. A
better chance of storms is at GSO/INT with an approaching front
and shortwave so included a brief restriction in the 23z to 03z
time frame.

Outlook: There is the potential of sub-VFR stratus or fog early
Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions are mainly expected Sunday
through Tuesday before storm chances return by midweek.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren/Badgett
AVIATION...Kren