797
FXUS62 KRAH 302311
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
710 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Widespread fog appears increasingly likely across the southern and
  central Coastal Plain and the eastern Sandhills late tonight and
  early Thursday morning.

* Continued confidence of below normal temperatures later this
  weekend and into the middle of next week. However, sensible
  weather, including rainfall amounts, are still uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

1) Areas of fog, some of it dense at times, will reduce
visibilities late tonight and early Thursday morning across the
Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills.

2) Temperatures trend well above average through Friday, then below
normal late this weekend through the middle of next week.

3) Wet weather still expected Saturday and Sunday, which may linger
into Monday, though rainfall amounts are still highly uncertain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of fog, some of it dense at times, will
reduce visibilities late tonight and early Thursday morning
across the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills.

Low level return moisture will continue to increase across
central NC through Thursday. Dew points this afternoon are noted
in the lower to mid 60s across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills
supporting scattered fair weather cumulus clouds. The clouds
will largely dissipate tonight but areas of fog will develop
after midnight in eastern locations and become widespread across
the southern and central Coastal Plain and the eastern
Sandhills. visibilities may drop to less than a mile in areas.
The fog should lift and burn off between 8am and 10am.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures trend well above average through
Friday, then below normal late this weekend through the middle of
next week.

Anomalous ridging extending from the western Atlantic will develop
Thursday and continue through Friday, ushering in above average
temperatures as southerly flow becomes in full swing. Generally mid
to upper 80s Thursday will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Friday, along with increasing humidity levels. We may get close to
the record high in Raleigh on Thursday, but Friday`s highs are
likely to be several degrees below records as it stands now.

We continue to watch a cold front that is slated to move south and
through the region Saturday. The ensemble and deterministic guidance
still differ on its timing of passage, but there appears to be a
trend of it moving through in the morning to early afternoon hours.
With that, Saturday is a transition day. Right now, highs are
forecast to be in the low 70s across the north, with mid 80s in the
south. However, a faster passage would favor lower highs from what
is presently advertised. For example, the range in max temperature
for Raleigh from the LREF is between 73 and 84, with a mean of 78.
The models should start to hone in on the timing in the next day or
so, resulting in better confidence going forward.

Once the front moves through, northeast flow will bring below normal
temperatures Sunday into the middle of next week ranging from the
60s to low 70s, with corresponding lows Tue and Wed mornings in the
40s to low 50s.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Wet weather still expected Saturday and Sunday,
which may linger into Monday, though rainfall amounts are still
highly uncertain.

We continue to track the next weather system slated to impact
central NC this weekend into early next week. While model and
ensemble guidance continues to show uncertainty in its track,
evolution, and timing, the highest rainfall chances appear to be
focusing in on Saturday and Sunday, though a few ensemble solutions
do indicate a low-end chance of rain lingering into early Monday.
The bulk of the rain may hold off until Saturday night as guidance
appears to be drier for the early part of Saturday.

Despite the better agreement on best rain chances, the overall
rainfall totals with this event is still largely uncertain. For
example, the latest LREF shows the range in accumulated rainfall
between a quarter inch and 1.5 inches, with outlier solutions
between a few tenths of an inch to 2 inches. The guidance appears to
be struggling with at least partially on the strength or development
of a wave of low pressure along the front and along the developing
CAD regime Saturday night and Sunday. A more developed wave would
trigger the higher-end of rainfall totals, while a more muted
response would favor the low-end scenario. Convection poised to
develop over the Gulf could also complicate matters and lead to
uncertainty as it pertains to moisture transport across the
southeast US.

Despite the uncertainty over the weekend, dry weather is expected
early to middle of next week as cool high pressure is favored to
build into the Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 710 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals
through midnight, then an area of fog is likely to develop,
primarily along and east of the I-95 corridor. While it cannot be
ruled out that some reduced visibilities could occur at RDU, or even
as far west as INT/GSO, that appears unlikely at this time. The
gradient along the western edge of the fog seems to have tightened
according to the models over the last few hours, and also appears to
be slightly delayed. Did have enough confidence to drop FAY`s
forecast from 1/2SM in a TEMPO group to 1/4SM considering how
widespread the dense fog was last night, even if it did not occur at
FAY. By mid-morning, restrictions should mix out, with a light
southwest wind through the day.

Outlook: Another period of sub VFR fog and possibly stratus is
expected on Friday and Saturday mornings, otherwise VFR conditions
are likely to continue through at least midday Saturday. The risk of
adverse aviation conditions increases later Saturday and continues
into Sunday as the threat of showers and possibly a thunderstorm
arrives on Saturday afternoon and continues into early Sunday before
the precipitation character changes to more stratiform rain and then
tapers off early Monday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Kren
AVIATION...Green/Blaes