032
FXUS62 KRAH 021200
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Nothing appreciable.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 152 AM Monday...

1) Patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight and again
Tuesday night.

2) No big pattern change for the next 7-10 days, at least noted.
Essentially very small chance of showers mainly Thursday, and any
showers will bring light QFP. Remaining very warm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 152 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  Patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight and
again Tuesday night.

A weakening disturbance will pass to our west and north today as
strong mid/upper ridging holds over our region. Essentially it will
be dry today, with a few sprinkles possible. Essentially no
measurable rainfall as it will remain NW of our region as the upper
ridging holds. A dry sub-cloud layer associated with the high
pressure extending SW across our region from the Mid-Atlantic will
aid in keeping it dry. Expect mainly cloudy skies this morning with
clearing from the west this afternoon. Highs again in the 65-72
range.

For the fog potential, it appears that as the high pressure slowly
shifts east, a weak WAA pattern will begin tonight with a more mean
easterly flow developing. The near surface dew points will be on the
rise by around daybreak Tuesday and beyond. Saturation is likely to
occur late tonight especially in areas of the eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. This region should have low stratus and patchy dense
fog later tonight and early Tuesday. This potential will exist again
Wednesday morning with the expected unusually high dew points and
temperatures for early Nov.

KEY MESSAGE 2... No big pattern change for the next 7-10 days, at
least noted now. Essentially very small chance of showers mainly
Thursday, and any showers will bring light QFP. Remaining very warm
at least through Friday.

Temperatures will run 10-15 degrees above climatological normal
through Friday. Highs will consistently reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, with warm overnight lows generally in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

There will eventually be a pattern change, but given the lack of any
verification of any rain in the past two weeks, it is hard to buy
into the models at 6-10 days out at the current time. I am not
buying any significant rainfall for the next 10 days attm.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail across central NC
through this evening, with overcast mid and high clouds at 10-15 kft
clearing out from west to east this afternoon. An area of light rain
is currently entering the far NW Piedmont, and while much of the
precipitation is having a hard time reaching the ground due to high
cloud bases and dry air in the low levels, the precipitation returns
are high enough to convince me to put a TEMPO group in for light
rain over the next couple of hours at INT and GSO. Otherwise, expect
dry conditions today. NE winds around 7 kts or less will diminish to
less than 5 kts overnight. This along with increasing dew points
will set the stage for patchy fog and very low stratus development
over the eastern Piedmont, eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain late
tonight and early Tuesday morning. The best chance for any dense fog
looks to be at RWI.

Outlook: Areas of fog and low stratus may develop again on Wednesday
morning. A moist axis, and a couple of weakening bands of light
showers may precede a slow-moving cold front across the region late
Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco
AVIATION...Danco/Badgett