425
FXUS62 KRAH 291858
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south across the mid-Atlantic Saturday,
and then stall out and hold across South Carolina over the rest of
the weekend, as high pressure noses in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 252 PM Friday...

Wnwly flow aloft continues this afternoon with dew points mixing out
a bit into the lower 50s.  Further upstream, a sfc cold front was
draped west to east from IL through northern VA/Delmarva.  This
front will slide south into our area through Saturday morning
backdoor style.  Associated mid to high level cloudiness will spread
across the area tonight, keeping overnight lows a bit warmer in the
lower 60s. Expect dry weather the rest of today and overnight with
perhaps a bit of patchy fog possible in the far southern Coastal
Plain early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM Friday...

The backdoor sfc cold front will slide south of our area through
Saturday morning, stalling in the SC vicinity as strong high
pressure builds into the mid-Altantic.  Aloft, flow will turn wswly
Saturday afternoon allowing at least some deeper moisture to pull
north from the Gulf States (although PWAT is still forecast to be
near or below normal over our area).   While largely void/removed of
sfc or upper forcing, the CAMs are still excited about generating
isolated showers (and perhaps an isolated t-storm) over our area
Saturday afternoon and evening. QPF amounts are trace to a few
hundreds so any rain that falls would be inconsequential. Hard to
pinpoint a specific area with best chances for isolated showers, but
a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE is likely to develop across the NC/SC
border and as such think the best chances would be across the south.
Otherwise expect highs in the upper 70s (N) to lower 80s (S).
Overnight lows will dip into the lower to mid 60s. Lastly, there is
a signal for potential fog early Sunday morning especially across
the northwest piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

* Below normal temperatures continue through the week.

* Precip chances increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold
  front.

Upper level troughing over the region will linger throughout the
week, strengthening by mid to late week as a ridge builds over the
western half of the US. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the Lower Great Lakes early Sunday morning  will shift east and by
Tuesday will be over the Northeast. A weak trough axis will move up
across the Appalachian mountains and western Piedmont Sunday
resulting a chance of showers and storms developing Sunday afternoon
mainly across the NW Piedmont. SPC has western NC in generally
thunder Sunday so a few stronger storms could be possible, however
CAPE is limited. With wind shear values slow moving, any storms that
do develop could also move slow and cause some minor flooding, thus
WPC has portions of the NW Piedmont in a marginal threat for flash
flooding on Sunday. As high pressure will continue to influence
Central NC Monday, rain chances will be little to none through at
least Wednesday morning. As a weak frontal boundary lingers across
the Southeast, it begins to lift north. A few models show a weak low
developing off the coast slightly increasing rain chances along the
coast and portions of our Sandhills and Southern Coastal Plain
counties Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Meanwhile
another frontal boundary over the MS valley will inch east as the
coastal low develops off the coast. As the frontal boundary swings
across the region Thursday evening and exit the region by early
Friday.

Temperatures during the long term will remain below average. Highs
will be in the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE with Thursday expected to be
the warmest day with highs ranging from 79-85 degrees. Lows will
range from the mid/upper 50s to low 60s Sun-Tue. Wed-Thurs lows will
range in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 252 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will persist with occasional nwly gusts of up to 15
kts or so this afternoon before dissipating this evening. Any
lingering isolated strato-cu this afternoon will fade this evening.
However, additional mid to high level cloudiness will accompany a
passing, dry backdoor cold front poised to move through central NC
late tonight/early Saturday. Isolated showers/storms may be possible
especially at KFAY Saturday afternoon.

Looking beyond 18Z Saturday, the chance for sub-VFR conditions
(mainly MVFR fog/stratus) increases late Sat night into Sun morning.
Isolated late/day showers or storms are possible mainly W and S Sun
afternoon/evening. VFR conditions are then expected Mon/Tue as high
pressure extends in from the N.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/Hartfield