707
FXUS62 KRAH 282022
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
321 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build in from the Midwest through Saturday,
then track east off the New England coast Saturday night. A cold
front will move south through the region Sunday, before settling
just to our south Sunday night. A more significant storm system is
expected to develop along this front over the northern Gulf on
Monday, then track northeast along the Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas Monday night through Tuesday night. Chilly high pressure
will then build in from the west on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* Coldest Night Of The Season

The center of Canadian high pressure(cP airmass), currently
positioned over the mid MS Valley, will build directly overhead
tonight. NWLY gusts of 15 to 25 kts this afternoon will diminish
around sunset, with winds becoming light and calm overnight. The
combination of calm winds, clear skies, and dry airmass with
dewpoints in the teens, will promote excellent radiational cooling
conditions.

The very cold low-level thicknesses of 1275-1280m, more typical of
mid-winter, will result in the coldest night of the season. Expect
lows in the lower to middle 20s, with some upper teens possible in
outlying rural area(12-17 degrees below normal for late November).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* Continued Cold/Chilly

Canadian high centered over the region on Saturday will drift east
and will move off the mid-Atlantic coast late in the day, reaching
the northern Atlantic waters by early Sunday. Downstream of a
mid/upper level shortwave trough ejecting from the central Plains
into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes, quasi-zonal flow aloft
will transition to backing SWLY flow Saturday night.

Despite compliments of full sunshine, temperatures will remain
chilly Saturday, with highs in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s
south --- 12-15 degrees below normal for late November.

Weak shortwave impulses coupled and strengthening warm moist air
advection within the SWLY flow aloft will lead to increasing clouds
Saturday evening, with skies becoming mostly cloudy Saturday night.
The thickening cloud cover may produce a non-diurnal temperature
trend overnight, with lows occurring during the first half of the
night,followed by nearly steady or slowing warming temperatures
toward daybreak. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Overall model consensus favors keeping measurable precip chances
after daybreak Sunday. However, a brief period of fleeting, patchy
light freezing rain or drizzle cannot be ruled out across the NW
Piedmont during the pre-dawn hours. Any impacts should be very
limited in time and coverage, with temperatures rising above
freezing shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

Shortwave energy and an associated surface low will move NE from MI
into far southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday and Sunday night.
This will drag a cold front that crosses central NC on Sunday
evening. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast, and scattered
light showers will be possible along and ahead of the front, first
mainly in the NW on Sunday morning then in SE zones by Sunday
evening/night. The deterministic GFS is almost completely dry, but
the GEFS mean is a bit wetter, as are the ECMWF and NAM. But even
the ECMWF and NAM only depict a quarter inch or less of QPF, as the
best mid/upper forcing goes well to our north.

Plentiful warm air aloft will prevent any threat of sleet or snow on
Sunday, but can`t rule out isolated pockets of brief freezing rain
at the onset in the early morning, mainly in the NW Piedmont. The
NAM is most aggressive with this as it has light precipitation
starting earlier when wet bulb temperatures are still below
freezing. If the GFS, ECMWF and the vast majority of their ensembles
verify, any precipitation wouldn`t start until late morning at the
earliest when surface temperatures will be too warm for anything
besides plain rain. Plus there will be no source of CAA at the
surface as the high pressure system will be east of New England by
this point. So not expecting any significant impacts, but still
something to continue monitoring. In-situ CAD will keep Sunday`s
high temperatures in the mid-to-upper-40s over the NW Piedmont,
while SE of the wedge boundary over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain,
highs will be in the upper-50s to lower-60s. Lows Sunday night will
range from upper-20s to lower-30s far NW to near 40 far SE.

Monday will feature a brief lull in precipitation chances as a ~1030
mb surface high builds down from Upstate NY and New England.
Temperatures will only reach the mid-40s to lower-50s (8-12 degrees
below normal) and dew points will be in the 20s. However, this
surface high will quickly move east to the Canadian Maritimes on
Monday night as a potent shortwave tracking from the Southern Plains
to the Middle MS Valley spawns a surface low over the Gulf Coast.
This low will track NE through the Carolinas on Tuesday and looks to
provide a welcome soaking (but cold) rain to our region from Monday
night into Tuesday. While the system will be fast moving, it will
have plenty of moisture and dynamics, and forecast rainfall totals
are in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, amounts depicted on both the GFS and
ECMWF. Isolated urban and poor drainage flooding can`t be ruled out,
and WPC has much of central NC in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Still, given how dry it has been
lately, widespread flooding is not expected.

Also watching potential for a brief period of freezing rain again at
the onset of precipitation over the NW Piedmont on Monday night and
early Tuesday morning, as a very small number of GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members (around 10% or less) depict it. Once again a deep
warm layer aloft should preclude any chance of sleet or snow, and
even any freezing rain would be very fleeting as there will be no
high to our north and the low will be taking an unfavorable inland
track over eastern NC if the latest GFS and ECMWF verify. Monday
night`s low temperatures in the 30s will be slow to warm on Tuesday
with highs ranging from lower-40s in the far NW (maybe even some
upper-30s) to lower-50s in the far SE. Rain chances will end and
skies will clear from west to east on Tuesday evening/night behind
the departing low as lows drop into the upper-20s to mid-30s.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. The next wave brings increasing
clouds and a chance of precipitation as early as Friday, but at this
time it looks more likely on Friday night and Saturday. Below-normal
temperatures will continue, as highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-
50s from Wednesday through Friday, and lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights will be in the upper-20s to mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

Through 18z Saturday: A very dry, cold, and stable airmass(cP
airmass) building into the region will support VFR conditions
through the forecast period.

NWLY gusts of 15 to 25 kts will diminish this evening with winds
becoming light and calm tonight as the surface high builds directly
overhead.

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to continue through early Sunday.
A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and associated sub-VFR
restrictions. The cold front will stall south of the area Monday
with dry VFR conditions giving way to widespread rain/showers and
sub-VFR restrictions late Monday night and Tuesday as a series of
weak sfc lows/waves track through the SE US and up the Carolina
Coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CBL