092
FXUS62 KRAH 160814
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will continue to interact with a weak
frontal boundary as it sags south across the area this
afternoon and tonight. By Tuesday, the front will lift back north as
a warm front, with strong upper level ridging building westward
across the region through mid to late week, bringing hot and humid
conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Flood Watch today through late tonight.

First, the current ongoing flash flooding from southern Nash
into Wilson and Edgecombe Counties is problematic in that
some areas have had nearly 5 inches of rain thus far. There are
some roads flooding in the area, although we have not had many
reports come in (probably because it is pre-dawn). So, early
morning commuters should heed the Warnings and watch for
flooding that could still be very dangerous and life
threatening. The satellite and radar presentations show good
signs of weakening of the training convection with warming cloud
tops and a significant decrease in reflectivities. The back edge
of the heavy rain will be arriving in the next few hours.

Second, the Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region
through 200 AM tonight. One short wave aloft will be exiting
shortly with additional disturbances arriving later. This will
occur as a backdoor cold front settles over our region and
stalls in a NW to SE fashion. Pinpointing exactly where the
boundary will be will be driven by convective outflows from this
morning. It will likely extend from SW VA southeast though the
Triangle to near Greenville. This boundary will serve as a
corridor for additional thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. There may be several clusters of storms tracking or
training over the same areas. Thus, flash flooding is possible
anywhere in the region with the highest probabilities near the
boundary. Swaths of 1-3 inches of rain appear likely, with
locally heavier amounts possible. Highs should reach the mid 80s
to around 90 again south and west of the boundary, with around
80 NE. Lows will be mostly in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Storm chances lessen significantly Tuesday as stronger high
pressure aloft begins to take hold. There is still a chance of a
PM storm, but only 20-30 percent. Highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 413 AM Sunday...

Wednesday: The center of the offshore ridge is expected to
retrograde some on Wednesday shifting the deeper anomalous moisture
a bit to our north. As such, coverage looks relatively limited on
Wednesday compared to prior days. Can`t rule out a few
showers/storms rolling off the high terrain and into our
northwestern areas in the afternoon. However, ensemble probabilities
for measurable rainfall are fairly low (10 to 20%). The ENS is an
outlier, showing better chances over our area. However, decided to
lean on the GEFS/GEPS/NBM instead and just highlight low chance POPs
Wednesday afternoon and evening (highest in the NW).  Otherwise
expect hot and humid conditions to persist, with highs reaching the
low to mid 90s. Periods of triple digit heat indices are likely, and
might warrant a heat advisory as we get closer to Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: An upper trough is expected to scoot across
the mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. At the sfc, a cold front will
push into our area later Thursday night before hanging up along the
coast Friday into the weekend.  Virtually all Machine Learning
guidance suggests severe weather is possible Thursday. However, I`m
a bit skeptical given 1) mid-level height falls/upper forcing is
maximized well to our north and 2) bulk layer shear is marginal at
best across ensemble means (~20 to 25 kts). Regardless, still
expecting pre-frontal showers and storms Thursday afternoon and
evening with some chance for a few isolated stronger storms.

The front will stall along the coastal areas Friday into the
weekend. Lingering higher PWAT on Friday should promote best chances
for coastal convection to migrate into our southern areas. By
Saturday, however, ensembles suggest PWAT will dip into the 1.25 to
1.5 in range, which should generally promote drier conditions
through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions will persist over this period, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday...

Showers and storms continue from RDU to RWI through 10z; otherwise,
expect CIGS to lower to IFR for most areas and continue through 13z-
15z. Cigs will become MVFR to VFR south and west of RDU and RWI,
with some lingering IFR to MVFR around RDU and RWI through 18z or
so. Additional storms are expected this afternoon and tonight. See
the specific TAF for each site for timing. CIGS will dip back into
the IFR range with stratus late tonight.

Looking beyond 12z Wednesday:


Sub-VFR cigs will start the day Tuesday. Otherwise, a return to
VFR for the region will occur by mid to late morning. There is
only a slight chance of PM thunderstorms. Early morning
stratus will decrease from Wednesday through Friday as high
pressure builds aloft, and convection should be isolated and in
the PM hours each day.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through
18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH