994
FXUS62 KRAH 120653
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
252 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Reduced POP for Sunday, raised MaxT Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 252 PM Friday...

1) Very warm and humid today, with scattered, mainly PM
showers/thunderstorms. Last shot at significant rain through the
week.

2) Sunday is trending drier, a bit hotter. Dry with temperatures
closer to seasonable values much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 252 AM Saturday...

1) Very warm and humid today, with scattered, mainly PM
showers/thunderstorms. Last chance of significant rain for a while!

The upper level short wave trough will move from the Tennessee
Valley east across the Appalachians and over our region through
tonight. The base of the trough will move east of the area Sunday
morning.

At the surface, a weak cold front (likely consisting of old
convective boundaries) was located from west to east, generally
along the US-64 corridor from just south of the Triad to the
southern part of the Triangle areas. PW`s were analyzed at 1.75 in
the western Piedmont to 2+ inches in the NE Coastal Plain. Dew
points and surface temperatures were generally in the lower to mid
70s. Earlier lingering showers have all dissipated, with plenty of
mid and high clouds around. There were areas of low stratus
developing.

Some earlier 00z/CAMS were forecasting some showers/storms this
morning. It appears they were tied to old MCV`s and disturbances
left over from Friday`s storms upstream. However, with the activity
now all but gone, the latest CAMS suggest that it will be mostly low
stratus and some fog through 13z or so that will prevail. There is
little indicating of any additional showers through mid-morning.

However, as the stratus breaks we are expecting fairly aggressive
heating today into the lower to mid 80s by noon. As the short wave
aloft approaches, expect areas of showers and thunderstorms to
develop, especially after noon. The higher POP should be between 200
PM and 900 PM. QPF continues to show a lot of variability, but
averages around 0.5 in Piedmont. Locally heavy rain is expected to
affect some areas, but just as many will not see any rainfall.

There should still be scattered storms this evening, even possibly
linger into the night in the east.

2) Sunday trending drier, a bit hotter. Mainly dry with temps closer
to seasonable values much of next week.

With the base of the short wave trough expected to pass east toward
the coast before heating Sunday and the surface front to not be far
behind, it appears Sunday will bring drier weather and hotter
temperatures than today. Readings should reach the upper 80s to
around 90. In addition, the showers are expected to be along the
coast for the most part.

Most of next week will be dry and cooler thanks to an upper ridge
that will be positioned to our west much of the time, with surface
high pressure to our north and northeast. This will result in a low
level NE flow and highs in the 80s. Lows should dip into the 60s
for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 142 AM Saturday...

VFR will largely prevail across central NC trough 06z-09z, with low
stratus expected to develop over central NC. All terminals likely to
experience IFR conditions. A period of LIFR is even possible around
daybreak, along with patchy MVFR/IFR visibilities. VFR will return
to most areas by midday on Saturday, but MVFR may linger into early
afternoon around the Triad. Showers and storms are then expected to
develop in the afternoon across the region, and they should be more
widespread compared to today. Brief gusty winds and sub-VFR
conditions will be possible with any storms.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through this
evening as a cold front makes its way through central NC.
Low stratus and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR restrictions
again on Sunday and Monday mornings as well.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco