760
FXUS62 KRAH 181053
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
653 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

1) More heat today and tomorrow, with a Heat Advisory again in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today for the southern and eastern
Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. Isolated showers and storms
can`t be ruled out both days, but organized severe weather is not
anticipated.

2) Continued hot Thursday, with temperatures dropping closer to
normal thereafter. Increased storm chances Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... More heat today and tomorrow, with a Heat Advisory
again in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today for the southern and
eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. Isolated showers and
storms can`t be ruled out both days, but organized severe weather is
not anticipated.

Another hot day is in store today for central NC. While low-level
thicknesses look slightly lower than they were yesterday, they
should still support high temperatures ranging from the lower-90s in
the NW Piedmont and VA border counties to mid-to-upper-90s
elsewhere. Based on what occurred yesterday, NW downsloping low-
level flow should again help dew points mix out into the upper-60s
to lower-70s in the afternoon, keeping heat indices in the 105-107
degree range at most. Still, this is enough to warrant another Heat
Advisory from Wake County south and east. This is where the NWS
Experimental HeatRisk is mostly Major to Extreme (levels 3-4 of 4),
meaning anyone without cooling/hydration will be affected.

Heat will continue on Wednesday with very similar air temperatures,
meaning another Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the area.
However, as high pressure to our west moves closer and NW flow
continues, dew points may mix out even lower in the afternoon,
reaching the 60s across much of the Piedmont. This may decrease the
area reaching advisory criteria.

Isolated showers and storms also can`t be ruled out both today and
Wednesday, although no organized severe weather is expected given
weak mid-level flow, and coverage will be limited due to minimal
forcing and drier air (PW values near to slightly below normal).
Convection this afternoon and evening should be mainly limited to
the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain with a weak lee surface trough and
the sea breeze linking up with a decaying cold front that reaches
eastern NC. Still can never rule out an isolated stronger downburst
with any storm that does develop. By Wednesday, the approaching
surface high from the TN Valley should keep any convective chances
pinned to the far south and east with the sea breeze.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued hot Thursday, with temperatures dropping
closer to normal thereafter. Increased storm chances Thursday
through Saturday.

The longwave trough aloft will amplify over the eastern CONUS
through the weekend, as a series of disturbances move through it.
One of the more potent s/w disturbances should drop south across
Ontario and close off over the Great Lakes over the weekend. This
low should slowly meander ewd into the Northeast early next week,
with the trough shifting ewd to along the East Coast. A surface
trough/boundary may remain situated across the area through the
weekend. Expect daily chances for showers and storms with the
disturbances aloft, the surface boundary providing a focus for
convective development. As for temperatures, low-level thicknesses
on Thu are forecast in the 1430-1440 meter range, higher than Wed
but lower than today. As such, expect Thu to still be quite hot,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s, though convective development
could limit the heating if/when/where it occurs prior to sunset.
Another heat advisory may be needed across the south and east if
this forecast remains on track through tomorrow. Temperatures should
gradually decrease to closer to normal by the weekend, with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s Sat and Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

A few sites in the Coastal Plain have reported MVFR visibilities
from mist early this morning, but any mist/low stratus will quickly
dissipate after sunrise.

VFR will largely prevail across central NC through this evening.
Isolated showers and storms can`t be ruled out over the NE Piedmont
and Coastal Plain in the afternoon and evening, associated with weak
Piedmont troughing and the sea breeze. This includes RWI, RDU and
FAY. But coverage should be limited given weak forcing, and
confidence in any sub-VFR restrictions occurring at the terminals is
low. Winds will be largely from the NW and light (around 7 kts or
less).

Patchy fog/low stratus again can`t be ruled out early Wednesday
morning in the east, particularly where rain ends up falling today.
Guidance indicates the terminal with the best chance is RWI, so
added a TEMPO group there for this potential at the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook: There will be a minimal chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday, as precipitation should remain closer to the North
Carolina coast. An approaching front should bring a higher chance of
showers/storms Thursday, and the front should linger into the
weekend, bringing scattered showers/thunderstorms through the
period. Flight restrictions will be possible in any precipitation,
as well as making those locations more likely to have flight
restrictions around dawn the next morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

August 18: KFAY: 98/1988
August 20: KFAY: 102/2007


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021
August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940
August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
August 22: KFAY: 75/2018


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ026>028-
040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/KCP
AVIATION...Danco/Green