781
FXUS62 KRAH 161800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
100 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front will move across NC today. Pacific
high pressure will follow and build across and offshore the southern
Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

* Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind a dry frontal
  passage will result in dangerous fire weather conditions for much
  of the area.

* Red Flag Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the
  northern counties, with an Increased Fire Danger for the remaining
  areas.

A moisture-starved cold front, further limited by a west-
northwesterly downslope component east of the mountains, will sweep
across the area through the afternoon. In it`s wake, Pacific high
pressure will settle into the region tonight.

Rapidly falling humidity and gusty winds behind the front will
produce dangerous fire weather conditions for much of central NC.
Windy conditions are expected both ahead and immediately behind the
front, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and frequent gusts of 25
to 30 mph, occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph. At the same time,
dewpoints will drop sharply, yielding afternoon RH values in the 20
to 30 percent range across much of central NC. The earlier onset of
post-frontal drying and a longer duration of critical RH values
(<25%), will result in the greatest fire risk across northern areas.

Following collaboration with the NCFS and surrounding NWS offices,
the Red Flag Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the
northern counties, with an Increased Fire Danger for the remaining
areas.

Aided by downslope warming, highs will range from near 70 north to
upper 70s across the Sandhills and southern coastal plain.

Gustiness will subside in the evening, though CAA will keep winds
stirring overnight. Lows will fall into the 35 to 40 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* The only below normal temperatures in the current forecast.

* Marginal fire weather concerns as dry air will stay in place.

After the passage of the dry cold front on Sunday afternoon/evening,
high pressure will start to build in over the region through the day
on Monday. This will support below normal temperatures, with highs
ranging from the mid 50s in the northeast to the low and perhaps mid
60s in the southwest. Lows overnight look to dip into the low to mid
30s.

Marginally concerning fire weather conditions look possible as well.
The dry airmass will stay in place under the high pressure, with low
RH values in the upper teens to the low/mid 20s. The stronger wind
component looks less likely, but there does appear to be a period of
gusty northwesterly winds for a few hours after sunrise. Gusts
between 15 and 20 mph look to be the most probable, with occasional
gusts potentially reaching 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* Marginal fire concerns continue Tue
* Low confidence rain chances early Wed and late Fri/Sat

A shortwave over the upper MS valley Tue is forecast to track ESE
into MD by early Wed. Meanwhile, high pressure will shift offshore,
allowing return flow to take over by the afternoon, and a warm front
lifts north into the lower OH valley and southern VA with broad low
pressure to the west. Relative humidity will again be a concern with
dewpoints slow to recover, with low to middle 20s percent. Winds, on
the other hand, will range only in the 15-20 mph for gusts, highest
over the NW Piedmont, resulting in a marginal fire danger risk.
Highs will be near normal in the upper 50s NE to upper 60s SW.

The rain chances with the warm front Tue night to early Wed look
meager, given the energy skirting to our north in VA. The best
chance appears across our far N and NE counties on the border with
southern VA with some isentropic ascent atop the frontal zone. Rain
amounts still appear light at best.

The late-week system late Fri into Sat appears to be trending drier,
with several ensemble cluster solutions and AI models suggesting the
energy gets shunted to the north of the Carolinas with ridging to
our south. If anything, the best chance of rain will be Fri night to
mid-morning Sat. Rain amounts, if anything, still appear light.

Temperatures will largely hover above average, with some well above
normal readings Fri/Sat in the SW flow with mid/upper 70s. We may be
flirting with record highs at some climate sites Sat depending on
the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period.

Orographic enhanced cirrus should fade after sunrise with some
scattered to occasionally broken stratocu accompanying a dry cold
front as it moves through the area.

Strong surface gustiness will develop area-wide between 12-14Z,
ending the LLWS threat. Sustained wind of 15 to 20 kts with frequent
gusts between 25 to 35 kts leading to low-level turbulence.

The gusts will diminish this evening. A brief period of marginal
LLWS is possible at northern TAF sites early this evening; however,
confidence is too low to include LLWS in any TAFs at this time.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along a frontal
zone that will waver invof NC Tue-Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-041-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CBL/Luchetti/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS