039
FXUS62 KRAH 181046
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Locations where strong to severe thunderstorms will be
  possible this afternoon and evening has been expanded to cover
  areas along and west of the I-95 corridor, including the
  Triangle, Fayetteville, and the Triad.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Friday...

1) Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon/evening and be capable of strong to
severe straight- line wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall
amounts of > 1".

2) Monday into Tuesday will likely feature scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Beneficial rain possible for
some areas. Hot Monday, cooling by Tuesday especially north.

3) A NE flow and cold air damming will yield much cooler and
cloudier conditions, possibly accompanied by periods of light
rain and drizzle, by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered to locally numerous showers and
storms will be possible this afternoon/evening and be capable of
strong to severe straight-line wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall amounts of > 1".

A pair of fronts are expected the shift across our area over
the next 24 to 36 hours. The lead boundary will be a pre-frontal
trough, currently stretching roughly from Richmond to Charlotte
in the 05z obs, which will mix southeast throughout the morning
and bring atypical hot and humid conditions within northerly
flow across the forecast area. Trailing this boundary will be
the synoptic cold front, which will likely be working through
the Virginias and southern Ohio Valley through the daylight
hours.

In between these two boundaries, surface dew points should
remain in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s throughout peak heating
as temperatures rise well into the 90s. This should provide a
moderately unstable air mass with instability ranging from
1000-2000 J/kg. Although isolated pulse air mass showers/storms
can`t be ruled out anywhere through the afternoon (with
convective temps in the low 90s), the greatest convective
coverage will likely be along a the track of upstream showers
and storms currently working through Ohio as of 06z. Mean-wind
steering flow should continue to track this cluster towards the
central Appalachians by early afternoon and then track generally
south and into central NC during peak heating. Poor mid-lvl
lapse rates and related marginal instability should preclude a
more widespread severe threat, however, steep low-lvl lapse
rates in excess of 9 C/km over the Piedmont could favor storms
organizing along a common cold-pool and result in localized
strong to severe straight-line wind gusts, despite weak
tropospheric wind shear (5-10 kts).

The synoptic cold front should start to working into the area
from the north around or shortly after midnight and may support
a continuation of shallow showers through the overnight period.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Monday into Tuesday will likely feature
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Beneficial rain
possible, remaining hot Monday. Turning cooler later Tuesday,
especially over north-central areas.

Models continue to suggest a potentially moist period for our
region Monday into Tuesday. This is due to the mid/upper trough
approaching from the Midwest and Ohio Valley. One cold front is
expected to reach NC Monday afternoon and possibly stall, with
another cold front expected to backdoor the region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. There should be a couple of rounds of
showers/storms, especially during the afternoon and evening
Monday into Tuesday night. Some beneficial rainfall is expected,
but as is typical with thunderstorms some areas will get the
beneficial rainfall of 1 to locally 2 inches, while some others
may be left out. Much more on this forecast through the weekend
updates. It will likely continue very warm and humid Monday,
with some cooler conditions Tuesday across the north (due to
clouds/showers/storms). Monday highs should be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s south. Highs Tuesday will be around 80 north to near
90 south. Lows in the mid 60s to around 70.


KEY MESSAGE 3... A NE flow and cold air damming will yield much
cooler and cloudier conditions, possibly accompanied by periods
of light rain and drizzle, Tuesday night into Thursday.

Once the cold front settles south of the region later Tuesday
and Tuesday night, a low level NE flow will continue to feed low
level moisture into the region. This would bring stable
conditions and would mean that stratus, fog, and periods of
light rain/drizzle or light showers will be likely Tuesday night
into Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of the NE flow,
moisture, cloudiness, and some light rain will keep daily highs
in the 70s (or much below normal for the first time in weeks).
Lows in the 60s, with some 50s possible north-central Wed-Fri.



&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

No major changes on timing of showers/storms this afternoon and
evening based on limited new hi-res guidance and time-of-arrival
tracking of the ongoing storm cluster in WV this morning. Did
introduce MVFR/IFR cigs towards the end of the TAF period when
confidence was greatest, although it may develop earlier than
currently forecast. Previous discussion as of 215 AM follows...

The primary driver in otherwise prevailing VFR conditions will come
from early afternoon convection that may linger into the evening.
Showers and storms are likely to develop around the central
Appalachians aided by prior convection currently moving through the
Ohio Valley and shift southeast into this evening, although
preceding air mass showers/storms will also be possible. Scattered
to locally numerous showers/storms will be possible at any terminal
and bring the risk for lightning, strong gusty and erratic winds (25-
 40 kts), and heavy downpours reducing vsby.

Outlook: A risk of convection will linger along the passing fronts
on Saturday, especially over the srn half of NC and including at
FAY. Nely flow behind the fronts will otherwise increase the
likelihood of IFR-MVFR ceilings, lowest and most prolonged over the
Piedmont (especially at INT/GSO), both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Stronger nely flow, and an increasing likelihood of cold air
damming, will favor additional sub-VFR conditions and periods of
light rain during the middle of next week (as early as Tue).

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/Badgett
AVIATION...AS/MWS