986
FXUS62 KRAH 251621
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1120 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be offshore of the SE states today and tonight. A
weak wedge or CAD front will develop over the Triad this afternoon
and linger tonight. A strong cold front will sweep across the region
Wednesday. Cold high pressure will follow the front for Thanksgiving
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Light rain is expected to develop/overspread the NW Piedmont late
   late this morning into the afternoon. This expected rain and
   extensive cloud cover will likely lead to in-situ CAD over the
   NW Piedmont/Triad later this afternoon into tonight.

-  A fairly large gradient of sky cover and temperature will result.
   Conditions will range from cloudy/cool and rainy NW to partly
   sunny, breezy, warm in the south and east.

-  Some of the rain/showers will move east into most of central NC
   tonight. However, rainfall will be light (averaging 0.10 to 0.40).
   The higher totals will be in the NW, lower SE.

As light rain develops near an approaching warm front in the west, a
CAD surface boundary will develop over the NW Piedmont. It may very
well split the Triad according to the latest model consensus. To the
east and south, it will be considerably warmer with a S-SW breeze
with highs in the 70s.

Some rain and showers will continue tonight, but rainfall amounts
will be light. The in-situ CAD low stratus/fog/mist will persist in
the NW, but may shift into the NW Foothills in time tonight as the
cold front approaches. Temps remaining steady NW (50s) with 60s in
the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

-KEY MESSAGES...

-  A strong cold front will drive through the region around mid-day
   into the afternoon Wednesday.

-  We are in general thunder (from SPC) and it appears only weak and
   generally isolated low topped thunderstorms are possible.

-  Warm weather until CAA arrives mainly Wednesday night behind
   cold front (70s).

-  Turning colder and breezy Wednesday night (30s).

Lingering CAD in the Piedmont will give way to mostly cloudy skies
with scattered showers. To the east, scattered showers and an
isolated storm can be expected as the cold front moves through. The
timing of the front should be around mid-day, earlier in the west
and later in the east. The showers will end as the front moves
through. The true CAA will arrive late or Wednesday night as another
mostly dry secondary front surges through.

Breezy SW winds 10-20 mph will occur, shifting to the NW late in the
day and at night. Highs will generally be in the 70s. Lows will dip
into the 30s to near 40 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Fire Wx concerns Thurs and especially Fri.

* Low forecast confidence as we head into a potentially more active
  pattern Sun into early next week.

Thanksgiving day will be dry as high pressure continues to build in
from the Central Plains. A big temperature swing from Wednesday as
we go from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Northwest flow will continue to usher in cooler air with
highs in the upper 40s NW to low/mid 50s SE.  New model data is
showing a few mid/high clouds move across the region during the
first half of the day with clearing skies in the afternoon. As the
reinforcing dry cold front will cross the region late Thursday
bringing chilly temperatures and winds are expected to pick up in
the afternoon with gusts expected to be 15-20mph. There is a
marginal fire weather concern for Thursday as winds pick up and dew
point/RH values drop quickly in the afternoon. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s NW to near 30 in the
SE. Wind chills could get into the upper teens overnight/early
morning Friday. Northwest flow will persist into Friday as the
Canadian high dives south into the TN valley bringing another rush
of chilly temperatures and gusty winds. Thus, another day of fire
weather concerns. Fridays high temperatures will struggle to get to
50 degrees with much of the region expected to stay in the low/mid
40s, and apparent temperatures will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Friday night radiational cooling will be at its best and lows will
range from the low 20s to mid 20s across central NC. Friday night is
expected to be the coldest temperatures of the season!

High pressure will shift off to the Northeast Saturday bringing a
NE/E flow. Highs will begin to warm gradually through the weekend
with Saturday highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows generally still
be low freezing ranging from 28-32 degrees.

Another weather system moving across the MS valley is expected to
move into the Mid-Atlantic region as early as Sunday morning
bringing increased rain chances for early next week. Long range
models are far from agreement on how the system will develop and
shift across the region thus will have to watch the system more
closely as it moves onshore into the Pacific NW region later this
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

VFR in the south and east, with lowering CIGS (MVFR to IFR) and
higher chances of rain in the west and north late this morning into
tonight.

VFR conditions will prevail overnight across central NC with plenty
of cirrus through daybreak. MVFR ceilings should develop into the
Triad ahead of an approaching warm front this morning. Some light
rain is expected to develop in this region late morning and persist
into the afternoon. This will likely aid in the development of in-
situ CAD over the NW Piedmont and thus create a sharp gradient in
ceiling heights between the Triad and Triangle in the afternoon,
persisting into tonight.

To the south and east, VFR ceilings look likely through the
afternoon and evening, with the potential for some fleeting MVFR
ceilings around RDU. Additionally, light rain or virga may be
possible throughout the day, but confidence is not high enough to
include at any TAF sites. Outside of the Triad, southerly gusts up
to 20 kts look possible, diminishing around sunset.

Outlook: Some light rain/showers will continue to move eastward
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing MVFR to
LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions. VFR conditions should
return Wednesday afternoon through Friday with the passage of a
strong cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG/Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...LH/Badgett