894
FXUS62 KRAH 301551
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1150 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area today, stalling out near
the North Carolina/South Carolina border through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

A backdoor cold front currently extends from east to west across the
forecast area and should drift south of the region by the afternoon.
Today`s cool down behind the front will be minimal, with only
locations near the Virginia-North Carolina border likely to have
high temperatures more than 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday. This
should result in highs from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. The
frontal passage itself should be dry, but a stray thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon and evening hours across
southern counties with all locations dry by midnight. Tonight`s lows
will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Today`s front will move far enough south by Sunday morning that any
further precipitation with it remains south of the area. While there
won`t be any surface features impacting the region on Sunday, an
upper level low is expected to close off over West Virginia during
the afternoon, and this should result in some scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily across the Appalachian Mountains. The
eastern extent of precipitation appears to be across Guilford and
Davidson counties, with a 15-30% chance for rain across the Triad.
Despite the low moving southeast into Virginia, the loss of daytime
heating should bring all precipitation to an end by sunset. Despite
normal highs for the final day of August being in the mid to upper
80s, Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than today, with highs
ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Saturday...

* Below normal temperatures continue through much of the week.

* Precip chances increase late Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a
  cold front.

Upper level troughing over the region will linger throughout the
week, with a few embedded short waves passing over. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes region early
Monday morning will slowly shift east and by Tuesday will be over
the Northeast and offshore by early Wednesday. Rain chances will be
limited Monday and Tuesday as high pressure seeps in from the
north/north east.

As a weak frontal boundary lingers across the Southeast Tuesday and
Wednesday, it begins to lift north and east Thursday. A few models
show a weak low developing off the coast Wed/Thurs slightly
increasing rain chances along the coast and portions of our
Sandhills and Southern Coastal Plain counties Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Meanwhile another frontal boundary over
the MS valley will inch east as the coastal low develops off the
coast smooshing central NC in between the two systems. Latest models
have slowed down the frontal passage as before it was expected to
move across the region Thursday evening and now has slowed down to
early Friday. Either way, expect increased precip chances Wed
through Thursday with another burst of low end chances of precip
Friday afternoon and evening as the front exits the region. Saturday
is expected to be cool and dry.

Temperatures during the long term will remain below average. Highs
Mon-Wed will be in the mid/upper 70s NW to low 80s SE with Thursday
expected to be the warmest day with highs ranging from 79-86
degrees. Fri/Sat high temps will be slightly cooler in the mid/upper
70s to low/mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid/upper 50s to low
60s Mon-Wed. Thursday lows will be in the 60s, then falling back
down into the upper 50s to low 60s Fri-Sat.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

TAF period: Mid to high level cloudiness continues to trek across
central NC early this morning. These clouds should scatter out as
the backdoor cold front sags south into South Carolina. Still a
slight chance for a few isolated showers/tstorm near KFAY this
afternoon, but overall VFR conditions should largely prevail.
Decided to add in TEMPO groups at KINT/KGSO for stratus/fog
potential tonight. Latest guidance suggests best chances for sub-VFR
conditions to be at these sites through 12Z Sunday morning.

Outlook: An isolated shower/storm will also be possible at INT/GSO
Sunday afternoon. Dry VFR conditions are then expected Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/Green