277
FXUS62 KRAH 030823
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
323 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

1) Some patchy dense fog is possible early this morning, with an
even better chance early Wednesday morning.

2) The chance of showers will increase and maximize with the passage
of a cold front on Fri, with well above average pre-frontal
temperatures that will trend to slightly above average post-frontal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Some patchy dense fog is possible early this
morning, with an even better chance early Wednesday morning.

With an increase in low-level moisture and mainly calm winds as
surface high pressure extends SW into the area, some very patchy fog
has developed across parts of the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain. This is the region where fog potential is greatest into early
this morning, and guidance shows there should be an increase in
coverage, with locally dense fog possible. Over the eastern
Sandhills and central/southern Coastal Plain, fog development should
be somewhat mitigated by an area of stratocumulus, while farther
west, drier air should limit development. Clearing will occur by mid-
morning, with a much warmer day on tap today (highs in the mid-70s
to 80).

As the low-level flow turns more easterly and southeasterly, dew
points will be higher on Tuesday night. So expect more widespread
fog early Wednesday morning, and some could be dense. Still looks
like the best chance will be across the north where winds are most
likely to be calm.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chance of showers will increase and maximize
with the passage of a cold front on Fri, with well above average pre-
frontal temperatures that will trend to slightly above average post-
frontal.

Mid/upr-level height tendency will trend toward neutral to weakly
rising over the Carolinas on Thu, between a shortwave trough
forecast to rapidly lift and deamplify through the lwr Great Lakes
and a "kicker" one forecast to progress across KS/OK and the mid MS
Valley. The latter feature will move ewd and across the OH Valley on
Fri, then lift through the cntl Appalachians and Middle Atlantic Fri
night. Related modest, 40-60 meter 500 mb height falls will
overspread cntl NC on Fri, as the strongest height falls and forcing
for ascent otherwise pass to the northwest and along the track of
the lifting shortwave trough.

At the surface, a cold front will approach from the west and slow or
stall over the southern Appalachians late Thursday through early
Friday, then move east and across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
later Friday and early Friday night. Weak high pressure will follow
and build slowly from the MS Valley to the Southeast through the
weekend and into early next week. While surface through ~850 mb
confluence and theta-e advection will result over the srn Middle
Atlantic ahead of the slow-moving front on Thu, stronger and deeper
lift will likely not arrive until late Thu night through Fri.

While uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts, quarter to
half inch amounts appear reasonable given a consistent signal for
such across the 50th percentile of both the AI and phsyics-based
ensembles. For perspective of possible ranges in QPF, their 10th and
90th percentiles range from 0.10-0.25" to 1-1.5".

Although the aforementioned theta-e advection will contribute to the
transport of ~lwr-mid 60s F surface dewpoints across cntl NC ahead
of the front, mid-level lapse rates are not forecast to steepen much
beyond moist neutral, generally to between 5.5 to 6 C/km. When
combined with widespread, multi-layered overcast that will likely be
in place on Fri, diabatic heating and diurnal destabilization should
be limited to less than 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The threat of thunder
consequently should be low, as is typically the case this time of
year.

It will otherwise be unseasonably mild-warm ahead of the front, with
temperatures of 15-20F above average and with additional 80 degree
days probable at RDU and FAY, then trending to ~5F above average
through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: Patchy fog has already begun to develop over
parts of the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, including at
RWI. Fog is expected to become more widespread overnight, expanding
to the south and west, and it may be locally dense with the best
chance of IFR/LIFR visibilities at RWI followed by RDU. While patchy
fog is possible at FAY, an area of stratocumulus resulting in 4-5
kft ceilings over SE parts of the area is likely to limit this
threat there. Chances of sub-VFR visibilities reaching as far west
as INT and GSO are low, but can`t be entirely ruled out.

Outlook: Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop again
Wed morning, probably with greatest coverage from e-cntl VA through
n-cntl NC and with highest probability of occurrence and lowest
restrictions at RWI and RDU. A moist axis, and a couple of bands of
showers and possible flight restrictions, will precede a slow-moving
cold front across the region Thu and Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/MWS
AVIATION...Danco/Blaes