989
FXUS62 KRAH 180024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
825 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will
dissipate through Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen
off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing hot humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 825 PM Tuesday...

Convection has largely been absent today and tonight, except for
some earlier storms over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain
this past afternoon. Upstream, we are watching an area of storms
across northern GA and portions of upstate SC that are tied to a
weak trough axis stretching from the TN valley into the lower MS
valley region. Some of the storms are severe, with the strongest
cells moving towards Asheville and the western NC mountains and
Foothills. Since much of the region did not see appreciable storms,
much of central NC has not been worked over in terms of the CAPE,
with MLCAPE still around 2000 J/kg in our SE zones and upwards of
4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. However, CIN is starting to set in with loss of
heating. Water vapor imagery also shows some mid-level dry air over
us beneath the ridge slowly building north and west. The HRRR, which
has for the most part done the best with coverage today, shows the
storms upstream dying out as they approach the western Piedmont and
Sandhills. However, we kept some low-end storm chances up to about
midnight or so. All in all, though confidence is low on these storms
maintaining themselves, unless of course if the outflow can generate
enough lift to break the surface cap. Lows should stay warm and
muggy with low 70s NW to mid 70s SE under southwest surface flow.
The prior discussion through Wed is below.

As of 1246 PM Tuesday...
Expect typical summer weather this afternoon into Wednesday, with
very warm to hot temps, elevated humidity and the threat for
showers/storms in the afternoon/evenings.

This afternoon mainly fair weather cumulus out there but
starting to see some building cumulus into showers across the
Sandhills. With SBCAPEs of 2000-3000 J/kg, shouldn`t take much
to build into thunderstorms. Severe threat if any would be wet
microbursts given the higher pwats and moist environment.

Leaning toward blend of the convective allowing models allows
for scattered convection areawide by mid afternoon with two
possible areas of concentration. One closer toward the northwest
Piedmont with embedded vort tracking across western NC and the
other from US-1 east to the coastal Plains, where some potential
sea-breeze/convergence boundary sets up. Still all in all
keeping pops under 50 percent.

Any storms should fade with loss of heating between 8pm-11pm.
Would not be surprised to see some stratus/fog form where it
rains but will see how things play out this afternoon/evening
and modify forecast later for fog/low clouds.

Wednesday may be somewhat similar to today but the 5h ridge does
build some, so temperatures by afternoon will be in lower to mid
90s from north (VA border) to south (Sandhills). With dewpoints
in the lower 70s, heat indices will reach and exceed 100 degrees
in typical urban areas as well as the sandhills and coastal
plains. Not quite heat advisory levels but definitely something
to be wary of if you will be working or sporting outdoors.

Differential heating would lead to isolated to scattered storms
in the afternoon but models seem to have it capped more
along/east and south of the Triangle area, while another
perturbation aloft tracks across the southern Appalachians
which may bring slightly organized convection toward the Triad
later in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

-Slight Risk (level 2) for severe thunderstorms across the region.

A strong cold front over the MS valley will move into the Mid-
Atlantic region Thursday afternoon and evening. SPC has a
majority of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in a Slight Risk for
severe storms as the frontal boundary moves through the eastern
US. There is a good atmospheric setup with SBCAPE values
reaching upwards of 2000 or 3000 J/kg in the afternoon
especially over the Coastal Plain. Shear values are also around
25-35 kts which would only promote severe thunderstorms to
develop. The main hazards with these storms will be damaging
wind gusts and hail, but an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.
These storms are expected to begin early afternoon in the NW
Piedmont area and then move across the region through the
evening hours. As the front shifts eastward and
stalls/dissipates along the coast early Friday, a few lingering
showers across portions of the coastal plain could be possible.
Afternoon diurnal/seabreeze thunderstorms could move inland
Friday afternoon before high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

-Hot and humid airmass continues through the weekend with heat
 indices in the low 100s early next week.

Saturday through Tuesday is expected to be dry, but hot and
humid. A few lingering showers in the far southern coastal plain
could develop Saturday afternoon but PoPs are currently low,
10-25%. The main story for the weekend through early next week
will be the heat. Temperatures each day are expected to warm up.
Saturday and Sunday temps will be in the low 90s north to mid
90s elsewhere with heat indices on Saturday in the mid 90s, and
upper 90s on Sunday. A few warmer spots on Sunday could reach a
heat index of 102. Monday and Tuesday will possibly hit Heat
Advisory Criteria for the NE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal
Plain regions. Temperatures will be in the 95-99 degree range
while heat indices will range from 100 to 106 in those areas.
Temperature records are not expected to be broken at this time,
but will keep a close eye on it in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM Tuesday...

Conditions are currently VFR at central NC terminals, with nothing
more than a stray light shower or two. We are keeping a close eye on
strong storms over central SC into E GA as well as showers and
storms over the northern NC Foothills, as they may move into our S
and NW sections, respectively, in the next few hours. Overall,
though, as we lose heating this evening, any showers and storms are
expected to dwindle and diminish, so have left this mention out of
the TAFs for now. VFR conditions are expected to persist through
tonight and Wed, with just sct to periodically bkn VFR clouds. There
is a concern for borderline low level wind shear tonight, mainly at
RDU/RWI/FAY, from 07z until 13z or 14z, as 1500-2000 ft AGL winds
increase to 25-30 kt from the SW, but SSW or SW surface winds should
stay up in the 6-10 kt range for much of the night, so confidence is
not high that we will meet LLWS criteria. After about 14z Wed, an
uptick in surface winds to 10-16 kt sustained with gusts up to 18-25
kts possible, lasting through Wed. A few showers and storms are
expected across western sections late Wed, perhaps affecting INT/GSO
after 20z.

Looking beyond 00z Thu, any sct showers and storms should diminish
by late evening. We may see a better chance for LLWS early Thu
morning. There is a good chance for blustery, very gusty winds Thu
from mid morning through the day, and well have a good chance for
showers and storms Thu afternoon through Thu night, with strong to
severe storms possible. Storm chances decrease for Fri through Sun,
with intensifying heat. -GIH

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WFO RNK
NEAR TERM...Kren/WFO RNK
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield
EQUIPMENT...RAH