487
FXUS62 KRAH 282322
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
723 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts. Lowered afternoon
  dewpoints a few degrees through Thu to account for deep mixing
  with heating, and min temps were dropped a degree or two tonight
  through Wed night given good conditions for radiational cooling.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Monday...

1) Dry and increasingly warm weather expected throughout the week,
followed by rising rain chances by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and increasingly warm weather expected
throughout the week, followed by rising rain chances by the weekend.

Deep low pressure is holding over and just off New England today.
Around this low, we remain in a cyclonic but dry flow pattern with
low PW, particularly across the S and W CWA where PW is sub-1" and
where a low-mid level downslope component is further drying out the
column. Scattered to occasionally broken clouds will stream over NE
sections through tonight, as minor perturbations rotate through the
base of the positive-leaning mid level trough sitting over the Mid
Atlantic, but otherwise fair skies are expected through tonight.

Deeply dry air and below normal PW will stay in place through much
of this week. As the New England low weakens and lifts NE into the
Canadian Maritimes, the trough axis will become increasingly weak
and baggy and succumb to building heights aloft over the Carolinas,
Mid South, and Southeast. This will resulting in rising low-level
thicknesses each day through Sat, with highs in the 80s Tue through
Sat, and lower 90s common on Thu/Fri.

A pattern change is expected by the weekend, as the deep closed low
now over central CA/NV drifts through the Southwest states, opens up
while shifting into the Midwest/Ohio Valley through mid week, then
joins up with polar stream energy to dig broad troughing over the
eastern Great Lakes and Northeast over the weekend. This will tamp
down our mid level ridge and shunt it eastward, allowing for an
increasing and deepening moisture flux from FL and the Gulf. Models
differ a bit on how much moisture return will occur Fri, but they
agree on a surge of high PW (near 200% of normal) by Sat, lasting
through Sun, with forecast soundings showing an LCL-0C depth over 4
km, favoring warm rain processes and boosting the heavy rainfall
potential. This possible threat will be closely monitored in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 723 PM Monday...

High confidence in continued VFR conditions at central NC terminals
for the next 24 hours. A period of two of stratocumulus or high
based altocumulus can be expected in the northern and eastern areas
from KGSO to KRDU and KRWI, but cigs will be around 6k feet.

Looking beyond 00z Wednesday, VFR conditions are likely to hold
through at least Friday, although areas of sub-VFR vsbys in late
night fog are possible late this week. The chance of showers and a
few thunderstorms producing sub-VFR conditions will increase
Saturday, but the highest coverage will be Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 30: KGSO: 89/1954   KRDU: 89/1954
October 1: KGSO: 90/1986   KRDU: 90/1986

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 3: KGSO: 69/2019
October 4: KFAY: 71/2019

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH