058
FXUS62 KRAH 101905
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through
today, then shift offshore tonight and Saturday. Low pressure will
develop near the SE coast today and move north along the NC
coast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

*Rain to spread into the Southeastern NC late tonight

Canadian high pressure extending south into the Carolinas will
gradually weaken ahead of the developing coastal low over Florida.
Cloud cover will continue to thicken and lower this evening and
tonight, with rain chances spreading inland into the southern and
central Coastal Plain counties during the predawn hours as
strengthening moist easterly Atlantic maritime feed expands north
into the area.

NELY gustiness of 15-20 mph will subside this evening before re-
developing late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens once
again.

Not as cool overnight, with lows ranging from lower 50s NW to lower
60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

*Rain and breezy conditions spreading inland through Saturday night

A deepening upper level trough and associated closed low pivoting
over the Southeast will help lift the coastal low near Florida
northward along the NC coast by Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Strengthening easterly Atlantic flow will transport deep moisture
(PWs 1.5-1.75 inches)inland through the period. Rain will gradually
spread from the southern coastal plain into the Sandhills and
central Piedmont during the afternoon, expanding further inland into
the western Piedmont during the evening and overnight hours as
frontogenetical forcing within the associated comma-head shifts
westward.

The heaviest rainfall amounts and greatest flooding will remain
focused along the NC coast, where higher rainfall amounts/rates are
expected. Across central NC, rainfall will generally be light to
briefly moderate, with a sharp east-to-west gradient in amounts-
--ranging from 1-1.5" east, 0.50-1.0" central, and 0.25-0.50" across
the western Piedmont.

Expect frequent NELY gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with peak gusts
potentially reaching 30 to 35 mph within the better rain bands
across eastern/coastal NC.

Widespread low clouds and westward expanding rain coverage will hold
afternoon highs to around 65 to 70 mph, with minimal nocturnal
cooling. Lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

* A coastal low will linger over the region Sunday and potentially
  into Monday, bringing continued rain and gusty conditions.

* Continued warming trend until late next week.

Model guidance is showing the coastal low, or potentially a pair of
coastal lows, making the closest approach to the Outer Banks Sunday
into Monday. Although there is still some uncertainty, light rain is
still expected to continue throughout the day and overnight on
Sunday. Some pockets of heavier rain could still be possible on
Sunday depending on the location and strength of the low. Models
differ in how fast the low will exit the region, leaving some
uncertainty with how long into Monday light rain will continue, with
the best chance for continued rain in the northeast. Overall, less
than 0.5 inches of additional rain is expected on Sunday and Monday,
with Saturday having the best potential for the heaviest rainfall
with the system. Sunday into Monday morning also has the potential
to be gusty as the system makes its closest approach to central NC,
with gusts around 25 to 30 mph possible.

After the coastal low moves further northeast out of the region,
ridging should start to spread eastward. This will allow
temperatures to rise to slightly above normal by mid-week. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday
and increase to the 70s by Wednesday before another slight cool down
is possible Thursday and Friday. Lows should be in the 50s to low
60s each night until cooling to the 40s on Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 147 PM Friday...

Multi-layered cloudiness continues to spill across central NC
upstream of a developing coastal low.  VFR conditions should prevail
through much of the early 24 hour TAF period. However, a surge of
low-level moisture should drop terminals to MVFR/IFR ceilings as
early as ~09Z at KFAY/KRWI, ~12Z at KRDU, and closer to ~18Z at
KINT/KGSO.  Associated light rain will promote some reduced
visibilities at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI as well. KINT/KGSO should largely
remain dry until after the 24 hr TAF period. Otherwise, expect nely
gusts of 15 to 20 kts to persist this afternoon before dropping off
a bit overnight (although still stay mixed). Winds will pick back up
Saturday morning gusting at times 25 to 30 kts at KFAY/KRWI late
Saturday morning/early afternoon.

Beyond 18Z Saturday: Guidance has come into better agreement pushing
steadier rain into all of central NC Saturday afternoon, evening,
and into the overnight period.  As such, expect periods of LIFR
conditions especially at KFAY/KRWI where heaviest rain appears
possible.  The low will slowly migrate northward Sunday into Monday.
As such, expect periods of rain and sub-VFR conditions to persist
through Monday morning.  Additionally, periods of LLWS may be
possible Saturday night at KFAY/KRWI. Strong nely gusts may
redevelop (30+ kts) at KFAY Sunday morning depending on the eventual
track of the low.  Beyond early Monday, expect high pressure and VFR
conditions to return through the remainder of the extended period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...NTL