418
FXUS62 KRAH 222305
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
705 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday. An area
of low pressure will track along and just off the coast of the
Carolinas on Sunday, before a cold front moves through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

Dry low-level air advecting in from the NE will help lift and scour
out the lingering stratus through the evening. Can`t fully rule out
a rouge shower across the NC/SC border, but overall expect generally
dry conditions through tonight. The dry airmass should persist
across eastern and central NC tonight. However, across the western
Piedmont, a more SELY upslope flow along the eastern slopes of the
southern Appalachians may support the development of MVFR ceilings
towards daybreak. Overnight lows in the 60s, with some upper 50s
possible across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain
counties where mostly clear skies should allow for better
radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

Weakening sfc high pressure extending south from the Mid-Atlantic
will hold over the Carolinas Saturday, supporting another mostly dry
day with temperatures a few degrees below-normal. Under an extensive
canopy of cirrus cloud cover, highs should reach the lower to mid
80s.

By Saturday night, weak cyclogenesis is expected to develop along
the stalled frontal boundary to our south. Cloud cover will thicken,
though the primary rain chances should remain confined to areas
south and east of the area. Overnight lows will fall in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

* A mostly dry cold frontal passage at the beginning of the week
  will bring below average temperatures and dewpoints for the
  remainder of the work week.

A deep trough and associated cold front will approach and pass
through the region Sunday into Monday. Sunday afternoon, isolated to
scattered pre-frontal showers are possible in the northwest and
southeast of the region. However, rain chances have trended
downward, especially along the US-1 corridor. Sunday should have
high temperatures mainly in the mid-to-upper 80s, with a few places
in the northwest staying in the low 80s. Sunday night should have
lows in the mid 60s to around 70. The cold front should pass through
the region on monday Monday, bringing cooler and drier air to the
region. However, the cooler air may get caught up in the mountains
to our west during the afternoon on Monday, leaving high
temperatures around normal, ranging from low 80s in the northwest to
upper 80s in the southeast. Lows should dip into the low-to-mid 60s
Monday night. Tuesday through Friday should remain cooler and mainly
dry. Temperatures each day should generally range from highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM Friday...

Most TAF sites have lifted above MVFR, though a few pockets of sub-
VFR persist to the west and southwest of INT/GSO. As such, cannot
rule out a few hours at the beginning of the TAF period for some
brief MVFR CIG at INT/GSO. Otherwise, VFR should prevail most of the
evening at all terminals. Easterly upslope should allow for MVFR
CIGs to return at INT/GSO early Sat morning, slowly lifting to VFR
between 16-18z Sat. There was some guidance suggesting a brief
period of IFR between 12-15z, but confidence in this scenario was
too low to mention.

Outlook: Mostly fair weather VFR conditions are expected through the
weekend.  A cold front and area of weak low pressure along the coast
may bring a chance of restrictions and light rain showers across the
area Sunday and Sunday night. Fair and quiet weather should follow
through mid week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/CBL