549
FXUS62 KRAH 291046
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Above average uncertainty exists with timing and amounts from the
  next chance of rain: this weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

1) Well above average and unseasonably hot temperatures will develop
this week and continue until a front wavers over the srn Middle
Atlantic with a chance of rain this weekend.

A sub-tropical ridge will progress and strengthen across the South
Atlantic states this week. The ridge will then lose influence this
weekend, as a weakening, positively-tilted trough settles across the
region ahead of a vigorous nrn stream trough forecast to amplify and
pivot across the Great Lakes.

At the surface, a Canadian high now centered across the OH Valley
and Great Lakes will progress across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic through midweek, then to near Bermuda by Fri. Sly flow
around the Bermuda high, and ahead of a wavy front that will settle
into and probably waver over the srn Middle Atlantic this weekend,
will contribute to warming temperatures through the week and to
near/around 90 F by Thu and especially Fri.

While hotter, the pre-frontal airmass will not become particularly
humid, with only modest low-level moisture characterized by surface
dewpoints in the lwr-mid 60s forecast ahead of the front on Sat.
When combined with weak mid-level lapse rates of generally less than
5.5 C/km, instability should remain weak and supportive of mostly
scattered convection during the afternoon. A better chance of rain
will result behind the front, probably later in the weekend for cntl
NC, when and where sly and strengthening 850 mb flow will favor
isentropic lift and rain. Some degree of cold air damming would also
result, but uncertainty for this weekend remains regarding the
frontal location, possible weak wave development along the front,
and the extent of post-frontal CAD. Regardless, there is a
consistent signal in model guidance for the front to move offshore
by early Mon, with another Canadian high poised to build across much
of the ern US early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well above average and unseasonably hot
temperatures will develop this week and continue until a front
wavers over the srn Middle Atlantic with a chance of rain this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM Tuesday...

High confidence in overall VFR conditions persisting across central
NC terminals, though a few areas over the Northern Coastal Plain
could be MVFR temporary for a few hours this morning. Winds will
remain light and variable with weak northerly flow throughout the
period. Mid level cloudiness around 6,000 to 10,000 ft will continue
across northern and eastern terminals, remaining well within VFR
thresholds before gradually scattering out in the afternoon.

By late tonight early Wednesday morning another round of patchy fog/
low status could be possible especially at KRDU, KRWI and KFAY. Did
not add to the 06Z TAF due to low confidence.

OUTLOOK: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to hold through
late week, with late night to early morning low stratus/fog
remaining the main threat for sub VFR conditions during calm
overnight windows. Rain and thunderstorm chances will gradually
increase over the weekend, bringing the highest likelihood for
widespread sub VFR conditions late weekend into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KRDU: 89/1954

October 1:
KGSO: 90/1986
KRDU: 90/1986

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...CA