905
FXUS62 KRAH 281801
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
202 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Patchy fog possible once again Thursday morning within a similar
  airmass.

* Rain chances for the early part of November appear to be trending
  drier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 202 PM Wednesday...

1) Patchy fog will be possible once again Thursday morning. A warmup
is expected through Friday.

2) Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to measurable rain
for the start of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 202 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Patchy fog will be possible once again Thursday
morning. A warmup is expected through Friday.

Areas of fog developed earlier this morning, especially across the
Triangle, portions of the Triad, and northeast Piedmont. Within a
similar airmass under a moist easterly flow, patchy fog will again
be possible across portions of central NC. The 12z suite of guidance
is indicating the more focused area of fog across the northern
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. However, nearly all of central
NC could have this threat, though at this stage it appears patchy.
We will continue to monitor through the evening hours. Otherwise,
low stratus will again develop, gradually lifting through the late
morning and early afternoon on Thursday. Temperatures will trend
warmer on Thursday and Friday, reaching the middle 70s Thursday and
upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday. A backdoor cold front slides
through early Saturday, dropping us back to normal for the weekend
in the upper 60s to low 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to
measurable rain for the start of November.

Forecast uncertainty remains high with respect to rain chances for
the first week of November. The 12z GFS appears to be coming in line
with the drier machine-learning guidance, with the majority of
precipitation staying across the Deep South Sunday and Monday. This
is consistent with the trend in the ensembles as well. The 00z EPS
trended drier as well, in line with the EC-AIFS, as surface ridging
over the Mid-Atlantic remains anchored in place. There still do
remain some wet solutions, specifically the GEFS/GEPS, leading to
uncertainty on measurable rain late Sunday and Monday. For now, we
lowered rain chances to 30-percent, down from 50-60 percent earlier.
That trend may continue with the latest suite of guidance.

A better chance of measurable rain appears in the mid to latter part
of next week, when guidance is showing a trough across the
midsection of the country that may interact with a coastal low.
There is still large spread at this time frame too, but this pattern
appears more favorable with a better combination of moisture and
lift.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Most locations in central NC have returned to VFR after this
morning`s fog/low stratus. Any remaining restrictions will continue
to improve through the afternoon. Tonight, it looks like another
round of fog/low stratus will be possible. With no airmass change,
this should be similar to this morning`s restrictions, however some
guidance is suggesting that there may be less coverage. Any sites
that have reductions in visibility or ceilings will return to VFR by
the afternoon.

Outlook: Once VFR returns Wednesday, VFR conditions will prevail
through Saturday. Restrictions may return Sunday into Monday with
the next potential system, however this continues to trend drier.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...LH