029
FXUS62 KRAH 040528
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1225 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over North Carolina for much of the week,
interrupted by a dry cold front Wednesday night and a second cold
front which could bring rain Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

* Clear skies through tonight, with cool to seasonable temps.

* Patchy frost possible in the north late tonight.

High pressure is currently over western Tennessee and its influence
will spread east throughout the day. The high should also keep any
clouds to the north over Virginia, with some clouds briefly possible
around sunset near the VA/NC border. Winds will be out of the
northwest today, then turning to the southwest as the high moves
overhead. The northerly component to the wind should keep
temperatures near normal despite full sunshine, generally in the mid
to upper 60s. The proximity of the high may allow winds to go calm
tonight, which would enhance any radiational cooling that occurs.
Lows will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s, with patchy frost
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

* Dry, warm, and blustery with 20-30 mph gusts in the afternoon.

* Dry front passage late Wed night.

The center of the high pressure should be near Charleston, South
Carolina Wednesday morning and will continue to move southeast. Low
pressure will race east from lower Michigan Wednesday morning to off
the New England coast by Thursday morning. The low will be deepening
as it moves to the east, increasing the pressure gradient across the
state as a cold front approaches Wednesday night. While the frontal
passage Wednesday night should be dry, bumped up the wind and wind
gusts during the daytime hours. The strengthening southwesterly wind
should increase highs about five degrees from today`s values.
Despite the front passing through overnight, a well-mixed atmosphere
will prevent lows from dropping as cold as tonight, with values in
the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 AM Tuesday...

* Dry Thursday, then rain chances arrive for Fri night-Sun, but with
  high uncertainty.

* Rain chances appear greatest Fri night/early Sat and again on Sun.

* Arctic high pressure will bring much colder air starting Mon, with
  a hard freeze possible Mon night.

Synoptic pattern: Aloft, a low will drift ever so slowly esewd over
Hudson Bay Thu-Sat, while a series of s/w disturbances swinging
around it move across the nrn and cntl CONUS. The low over Hudson
Bay will swing sewd over Ontario/Quebec Sun-Mon. Each successive s/w
will track farther south and be more amplified. The longwave trough
will become highly amplified over the weekend, spanning the entire
eastern CONUS. Over central NC, uncertainty remains wrt the track,
amplitude, and speed of the shortwaves that will help carve out the
deep trough and fairly significant run-to-run changes in the model
solutions continue, resulting in a low-confidence forecast. The flow
will be quasi-zonal Thu/Thu night. The first s/w will approach from
the west on Fri, moving across the region Fri night/Sat. The next
s/w will move across the Great Lakes/OH Valley Sat night/Sun, while
a couple of trailing disturbances further amplify the trough as they
move through it Sun and Mon.

At the surface, cold Canadian high pressure will build into the area
as it move ewd across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Thu/Thu
night, shifting offshore by Fri morning. As the high moves toward
Bermuda and the next cold front approaches, a warm front will lift
nwd across the area Fri aft/eve. The timing of the fropa varies,
with the faster EC pushing it through Fri night/early Sat, while the
slower GFS gets hung up north and west of the area, finally pushing
through as the next low pressure system lifting enewd across the OH
Valley and Northeast interacts with it Sun/Sun night. The EC also
has that secondary low pressure system, similar in strength and
track, with another cold fropa Sun/Sun night. In the wake of the
front, Arctic high pressure will build in from the west Mon/Mon
night.

Precipitation: Two potential chances for rain, but highly uncertain.
The first chance will be ahead of the cold front Fri night/Sat,
although timing, duration, and amounts remain uncertain as the fropa
details vary. The next chance will be Sat night/Sun, but will depend
on what happens with the front and thus is lower confidence at this
time.

Temperatures: Near normal Thu/Thu night, with highs in the 60s and
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Moderation Fri/Fri night ahead of
the cold front, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
50s. Low confidence in the temperature forecast for Sat and Sun
given the fropa differences. However, there is good agreement and an
increasing potential for the coldest air of the season to arrive
Mon/Mon night. Central NC could see a hard freeze Mon night, with
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Tuesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. Only some passing high clouds are expected near the VA/NC
border around sunset, otherwise no cig/vis restrictions are
expected. While there will be some marginal low-level wind shear
across northern terminals at the beginning of the period, the low-
level jet will shift northeast overnight, lowering the shear values.

Outlook: Ahead of a dry cold front passage Wednesday night, winds
could gust up to 25 kt Wednesday afternoon. The only potential for
rainfall will be Friday night with another cold front, and this
could also bring some flight restrictions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green/GIH
SHORT TERM...Green/GIH
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Green