798
FXUS62 KRAH 201126
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle across GA and SC today. High pressure
will ridge across the region for Thursday through early Friday
before the front lifts north as a warm front on Friday across the
Carolinas and into VA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Thursday...

Sfc analysis this morning depicted nely flow across central NC in
wake of a cold front that has cleared south into SC/GA.  Further
upstream, a thick blanket of stratus has formed along south of the
mouth of Chesapeake Bay.  This deck should sag south across the
northern Coastal Plain and northern/central Piedmont over the next
several hours and linger through late morning/midday. With the front
stalled to our south, and persistent nely flow, expect highs today
to be a bit cooler in the upper 50s (NE) to around 70 (SW).

As we progress to this evening and overnight hours, isentropic
upglide will promote light rain chances mainly across central to
northern areas. Expect largely trace to a few hundreds of an inch at
most through 12Z Friday. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to around 50
are expected. Some patchy fog may be possible late tonight/early
Friday morning along the NC/SC border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 AM Thursday...

The front previously stalled across SC on Thursday will move north
as a warm front on Friday. With largely zonal flow overhead, much of
Friday should be dry with light sswly flow at the sfc.  By Friday
evening/overnight, weak mid-level perturbations will move across the
southern Appalachians.  This, along with some WAA, may promote light
rain across our area. However, QPF guidance amongst ensembles aren`t
overly impressed with amounts through 12Z Saturday, generally a few
hundreds to a few tenths across the north.

Otherwise expect warmer daytime highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60 are expected. Some
additional fog may be possible late Friday night/early Saturday
morning near the NC/VA border.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A cold front will move south through central NC on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave will move to
our north across the OH Valley and VA. Temperatures will be very
mild ahead of the front with highs in the 70s to 80 (10 to 20
degrees above normal). WSW winds ahead of the front could gust to 20
to 25 mph, and NW winds behind it could stay gusty as well during
the day. Moderate mid-level height falls and low-level convergence
along the front may also result in isolated to widely scattered
showers on Saturday. Up to 500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE means there could
be some isolated storms, mainly across the south, and impressive 0-6
km bulk shear of 50-70+ kts means a strong to severe storm can`t be
ruled out. Instability will be the limiting factor, and the flow
does look fairly unidirectional. Total precipitation amounts only
look to be around a tenth of an inch or less on average.
Precipitation chances will come to an end behind the front on
Saturday night as lows drop into the 40s.

It will turn dry and cooler on Sunday and Monday as high pressure
builds into the area. Highs will be in the 60s to 70 which is still
slightly above normal. After a warm front lifts through the area on
Tuesday, the next mid/upper low over the northern Plains and
Southern Canada will drag a cold front that approaches central NC
sometime mid to late week. However, there are significant model
differences between the ECMWF and its ensembles which are faster
with the front compared to the GFS and some of its ensembles which
keep us dry through Wednesday. So confidence in details is fairly
low at this time, but the system does appear slightly wetter in the
ensemble guidance compared to Saturday. The temperature forecast
trends slightly warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 623 AM Thursday...

12Z update: IFR/LIFR ceilings persist at KRDU/KRWI this morning.
Expect these ceilings to lift to VFR by midday. Otherwise, the
discussion and aviation concerns below remain valid.

VFR conditions under nely sfc flow is showing across central NC
early this morning. However, a blanket of MVFR/IFR stratus over the
southern mouth of Chesapeake is quickly approaching KRWI. Suspect
this sub-VFR cloud deck will impact KRDU, but should remain north
and east of KFAY/KINT/KGSO. Expect this layer to slowly lift through
late Thursday morning as KRWI/KRDU return to VFR. Additional multi-
layer cloudiness, primarily mid and high level clouds, will advect
across central NC throughout the rest of the 24 hour TAF period.
Light isentropic-driven rain may reach KINT/KGSO around 06Z Friday,
but any associated sub-VFR ceilings will largely hold off till after
the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR stratus associated with isentropic-driven light
rain will spread across the western/central Piedmont Friday and
linger through Friday evening. Additional rounds of light rain and
low-level cloudiness will be possible Friday night into Saturday. A
front will sag into central NC on Saturday, continuing the chance
for unsettled weather. The front will clear south of our area
Sunday, with dry VFR weather returning early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti