827
FXUS62 KRAH 292340
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No significant changes from earlier forecasts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

1) Dry and increasingly warm weather expected through Friday,
followed by high rain chances over the weekend, including the
potential for localized heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry and increasingly warm weather expected through
Friday, followed by high rain chances over the weekend, including
the potential for localized heavy rainfall.

Surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region early
this afternoon will gradually shift eastward toward Bermuda through
the rest of the work week, while continuing to extend across central
NC. A mid level perturbation swinging through the base of the
weakening trough axis stretching from New Brunswick through central
NC to the FL panhandle is supporting sct-bkn cloudiness this
afternoon, particularly over our N areas, but these clouds should
break up and dissipate into this evening as the wave departs. Latest
surface dewpoints are 2-7 deg F higher than at this time yesterday,
and this increasing low level moisture (especially across our S and
E), the dearth of clouds, and calm air overnight will foster
formation of areas of ground fog late tonight, with the highest
confidence across the N and E. Lows will be about a category above
normal, from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Deeply dry air and low PW will stay in place through the work week.
The mid level trough axis will weaken further and shift to our E and
SE, as the strengthening ridge aloft builds from the lower Miss
Valley across the Mid South and Carolinas, before anchoring just off
the Southeast coast by Thu night/Fri. Lower level (925-850 mb)
ridging extending E-W across the Carolinas during this period will
keep us largely cut off from a significant tap of Gulf and Atlantic
moisture, with PW values expected to remain below normal and the
better moisture shunted to our W and N, keeping our weather
generally dry through Fri. Low level thicknesses will trend up to
~10 m above normal Wed and ~20 m above normal Thu/Fri, favoring
highs in the 80s to lower 90s, hottest on Fri.

A pattern change to wet weather is expected by the weekend. The deep
closed low now near Las Vegas will shift E through the Southwest and
S Plains while weakening as it lifts NE into the Great Lakes region,
leaving a baggy trough trailing back to W TX. This dampening wave
will lose steam as it encounters the Southeast ridge, thus the
better rain chances late Fri night through Sat morning will still be
to our W and N. But then polar stream energy digging into the Upper
Midwest and W Great Lakes will dig broad troughing over the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast by late Sat through Sun night, nudging the
westerlies southward into the Mid Atlantic region, tamping down the
Southeast ridge, pushing a surface cold front into NC, and allowing
for an increasing and deepening moisture flux from FL and the Gulf.
Models still differ a bit on the details but agree on a surge of
high PW (180%-200% of normal) by Sat afternoon, peaking late Sat
night through Sun evening, and forecast soundings show an LCL-0C
depth over 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and boosting the
potential for heavy rainfall, particularly with any training rain
clusters, with the highest pops on Sun. This possible threat will be
closely monitored in the coming days. Sunday should be markedly
cooler as the surface cold front settles into our S and E, with rain
falling over our area and a surface low tracking along the front.
Cool Canadian high pressure will then build in from the NW and N by
Tue, getting us back into dry weather.

After over 36 years in the NWS, this will be my final forecast
discussion. It`s been my pleasure to serve the people of central NC
for so many years. I wish you all calm and clear weather! -Hartfield

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should prevail through this
evening and into early tonight. Some patchy fog with IFR/LIFR vsbys
may develop during the pre-dawn/daybreak hours (09Z-13Z), mainly
across the eastern terminals (KRDU, KFAY, KRWI), owing to increasing
low-level moisture and calm to light winds. VFR conditions should
return by 15Z or so Wed. At the KINT/KGSO, VFR conditions may
prevail through the TAF period, although a brief drop below VFR
around daybreak cannot be completely ruled out. Light nly winds
should go calm overnight, then become generally light sly/swly Wed
aft/eve. -10

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least Fri,
although areas of sub-VFR vsbys in fog are possible each morning
especially in the east, with the highest potential for fog early Fri
morning. The chance for showers and storms producing sub-VFR
conditions will increase by Sat and remain high through Sun, ahead
of an approaching front. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KRDU: 89/1954

October 1:
KGSO: 90/1986
KRDU: 90/1986

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...10/Hartfield