305
FXUS62 KRAH 170746
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
346 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will
dissipate through Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen
off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing hot humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 302 AM Tuesday...

Flood Watch allowed to expire at 200 AM.

Showers/storms linger through 400 or 500 am...some with locally
heavy rainfall.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions today with only a small chance
of storms.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms extending from Albemarle to
Raleigh will gradually diminish as support wanes. Once the early
morning convection continues to weaken and die off, there will
likely be areas of stratus and fog. Otherwise, expect the stratus
and fog to burn off mid to late morning with partly sunny skies to
follow. Most guidance with support from CAMS indicates widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Dew
points and low level moisture will remain very high with readings in
the lower to mid 70s. These readings along with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s will feel like mid 90s to near 100. A SW breeze
around 10 mph will help for some slight relief. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 302 AM Tuesday...

Hotter and still very humid, only isolated thunderstorms

After a bit of stratus and fog, mostly sunny and hot conditions are
expected Wednesday. Only isolated PM thunderstorms are forecast given
the strong upper ridging and drier air aloft. Unfortunately, the drier
air does not translate to the surface as dew points remain very high.
Expect lower to mid 70s dew points with highs 90-95 NW to central and SE.
SW winds will pick up during the afternoon making it a bit more
tolerable at 15-20 mph. Expect mainly clear skies Wednesday
night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday: A potent short-wave will eject across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Friday. At
the sfc, a cold front will push across central NC Thursday night
into Friday morning. Ahead of the front, anomalous moisture
will persist (PWAT ~1.75 to 2 inches) while temperatures rise
into the mid 90s. While the stronger upper forcing will remain
well to our north, scattered showers and storms are likely to
roll off the high terrain and/or develop along a lee sfc trough
centered across central NC. These showers and storms will move
west to east across central NC before diminishing Thursday
night. Shear profiles amongst ensembles have shifted some of the
stronger shear further south into our northern tier of
counties, albeit still marginal at best (~25 to 30 kts). As
such, a few stronger to severe storms will be possible Thursday
afternoon and evening. As of now, forecast soundings indicate a
largely damaging wind gust threat (uni-directional shear with
DCAPE of ~1000 J/kg). The CSU ML severe outlook model also
highlights damaging wind gusts as the main possible hazard
Thursday and primarily for areas north of Raleigh. SPCs latest
Day 3 update this morning concurs with our thinking, adding a
slight risk for much of our CWA and mentioning primarily a wind
and hail threat.

The cold front will clear central NC by Friday morning and stall along
the coast. Ensembles suggest that anomalous PWAT (~1.75 inches)
will persist in our southeastern areas for much of Friday. As
such, sea breeze/frontal convection could drift into our
southern areas Friday afternoon and early evening. Any lingering
convection will diminish quickly Friday night as we finally
start to see some drier air trickle in as PWAT drops into the
1.25 to 1.5 inch range Friday night. Highs on Friday will peak
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday through Monday: The rest of the extended period will feature
highly anomalous ridging along the eastern seaboard (center of
the ridge over the Mid-Atlantic reaches geopotential heights 4
standard deviations above normal by Monday night). With this
type of setup, expect temperatures to soar into the mid 90s
Saturday, and upper 90s by Sunday and especially on Monday.
Theres a good chance heat indices will near or exceed Heat
Advisory criteria. The experimental HeatRisk product suggests
the extreme category could be reached across much of the
Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain as well on Monday. Make
sure to stay hydrated and practice heat safety
(weather.gov/safety/heat) especially if spending a considerable
amount of time outside this weekend and early next week. With
the ridge centered over us, rain chances should be fairly
limited during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to slowly
weaken over central NC through 09z-10z. These may affect the RDU
area, but should stay south of the Triad region. Otherwise, MVFR to
IFR cigs are expected to develop between 07z-10z, lasting until 12z-
13z, with improvement to VFR expected by 15z to 17z at all sites as
cigs rise to VFR.

Only isolated showers and storms are expected during the afternoon
into the evening with generally VFR conditions.

Looking beyond 06z Wed, there is a chance of sub-VFR conditions
early Wednesday morning. While isolated storms may occur Wednesday
afternoon, the next best chance of thunderstorms will be late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, when some storms could
become strong. Otherwise, chances for afternoon/evening storms will
be minimal.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH