599
FXUS62 KRAH 180548
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
148 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will settle off the Southeast coast
today. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night, followed
by high pressure settling back into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

* Above normal temperatures today. Mild tonight.

Weak shortwave crossing the area this morning. The main impact
is a patch of high clouds and limited radiational cooling or
even some weak warming from downward longwave radiation the rest
of this morning. Otherwise quiet weather with highs in the mid
to upper 70s, about 6-10 degree above normal.

Southerly flow will begin to increase a bit tonight ahead of a
low pressure system in the Midwest. No impacts other than some
scattered stratocu in the western Piedmont late. Mild lows in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

* Showers and strong wind gusts with a cold front crossing the
  area Sunday afternoon and evening.

A deep shortwave trough will pivot across the Midwest and TN
Valley, then begin to lift across western NC and into VA on
Sunday. The associated cold front will cross central NC Sunday
evening.

The shortwave will result in modest H5 height falls around 90m
Sunday afternoon across NW Piedmont. Bulk shear is strong at
50-60kt across the NW but MLCAPE is forecast to be less than 500
J/kg and highest in the south, resulting in poor overlap of
shear and CAPE.

The overall trend of precip and QPF should be downward as the system
crosses the mountains and moves into the Piedmont. Theta-e
fields suggest a prefrontal band of showers is possible during
the day on Sunday, followed by the cold frontal showers Sunday
evening. QPF amounts will be light over all - less than 0.25 on
average. Thunderstorm chances appear limited to the
stronger upper forcing in the NW Sunday evening.

Wind gusts are the main concern with the approach of the front
and intensifying pre-frontal LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest
25-30kt in the mixed layer Sunday afternoon, increasing to
30-35kt Sunday evening, with some potential for isolated higher
gusts within some of the showers given well mixed sub-layer and
inverted-V soundings.

Wind gusts will decrease but may be slow to abate behind the
front Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 123 AM Saturday...

* Another mostly dry front will keep the region seasonably cool.

After the cold frontal passage Sunday night, cool and dry Canadian
high pressure will build into the region. This will allow for
seasonably cool temperatures to return, with highs on Monday in the
mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the low/mid 40s overnight.
Monday afternoon dewpoints should dip into the upper 30s to lower
40s, which could bring fire weather concerns if winds are able to
remain elevated due to a sharp pressure gradient.

Tuesday afternoon will be slightly warmer than Monday as winds will
be out of the southwest ahead of another mostly dry cold front that
looks to move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs
Tuesday are expected to generally reach the low/mid 70s, with lows
overnight dipping into the mid 40s in the northwest to the low 50s
in the southeast. Although the front will be moisture starved with
PWs less than 1 in, a light shower or two cannot be completely ruled
out with the frontal passage, especially in the north. The main
story with the cold front will be the reinforcing cool and dry air
from the stronger Canadian high pressure moving into the region.
Highs Wednesday through Friday are generally expected in the mid 60s
to low 70s, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Wednesday night
warming to the mid 40s to around 50 by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

Light and variable surface winds overnight will become
southerly around 5-10 kts this afternoon as the high shifts
offshore.

Outlook: Swly surface winds will strengthen and gust to around 30-35
kts Sunday, ahead of a cold front that. The front will move across
cntl NC Sunday evening and Sunday night, accompanied by a band of
low VFR to MVFR ceilings and showers.

Dry VFR conditions return on Monday. A moisture starved cold front
may bring will bring breezy conditions again Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...BLS/CBL