493
FXUS62 KRAH 291018
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
620 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will move southeast through the region early
this morning. Another weak cold front will move south across the mid-
Atlantic Saturday, and then stall out and hold across South Carolina
over the rest of the weekend, as high pressure noses in from the
north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

* Lots of sunshine today with temps near or slightly under normal.

An area of mid clouds and a couple of isolated sprinkles have moved
through the N central CWA over the last few hours, associated with
the passage of the mid level trough axis ESE through the region, and
high thin clouds are streaming over SE sections ahead of the trough
axis. The trough will shift to our E this morning, leaving us within
the deeply dry air seen on the latest GOES layer WV imagery to our
WNW. The trough`s surface reflection, a weak cool front, will shift
SE into the area through tonight, with high pressure building in
weakly behind it. Low level flow will remain weak, though, with a
deep mixed layer resulting in little more than a sct high-based cu
this afternoon. Expect highs today a few degrees warmer than
yesterday given the greater insolation, mainly in the low-mid 80s.
Sct high cu will extend into tonight, then we`ll see high clouds now
over the central Plains and mid Miss Valley spreading in from the W
and WNW overnight. This should result in lows that are slightly
above this morning`s temps, in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

* An isolated storm or two can`t be ruled out late Sat into Sat
  night, but confidence in the location of any storms is low.

Another mid level shortwave trough will move in from the W Sat,
rotating around the base of the mean E-NOAM coast longwave trough,
and the approach of this feature will draw slightly better moisture
over the srn Gulf states northward toward NC by afternoon. At the
surface, cool high pressure centered over the L.P. of MI will drift
to Lk Erie and W NY/W PA through Sat night, pushing another weak
front in a more backdoor fashion into and through NC. Moisture will
remain somewhat modest, however, with PWs initially around 50% of
normal only climbing to 75-85% of normal. Models show just minor
SBCAPE with heating, just a few hundred J/kg, although deep layer
bulk shear will be decent at around 25-30 kts. So while some pockets
of convection are possible, the moisture and lack of low level
forcing for ascent favors limited coverage, and indeed the extended
hours of the CAMs as well as large scale models all place isolated
precip in different places late Sat into Sat night, although most do
show precip somewhere over the CWA. With a nod toward these models
and particularly latest REFS output, have included a mention of
isolated storms in the SE Sat afternoon. This isolated activity may
continue through much of Sat night within mid level DPVA, as models
suggest, however confidence in any shower or storm maintenance after
nightfall is low, so will not include for now. With the return of
some cloudiness, expect highs slightly lower than today esp in the N
and W, in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows Sat night should
be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 AM Friday...

* The period of below normal temperatures continues.

Aloft, a longwave trough will sit over the eastern US, with a few
embedded s/w disturbances moving through the base of it, possibly
tracking across the region through the period. A low will drop swd
out of central Canada and into the upper MS Valley on Wed and
continue slowly ewd across the Great Lakes Wed night thru Thu night
as either a closed low (EC) or open trough (GFS). At the surface,
with the cold front draped W-E across FL, high pressure will track
ewd across the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast US through Mon
night/Tue, ridging swd into the area. Meanwhile, while there are
still significant differences in the guidance, an area of low
pressure may develop along the front mid-week. The front could lift
back across the area late Wed through Thu/Thu night as the low
tracks newd along the Southeast US and mid-Atlantic coasts. While
the forecast remains mostly dry, cannot rule out some showers with
the passing disturbances aloft and with the low as it lifts along
the coast. For now, highest chances for showers is Sun aft/eve, then
mid-week with the low. Highs will generally range from the mid/upper
70s NW to low/mid 80s SE. Lows should range from mid/upper 50s north
to low/mid 60s south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

VFR conditions are likely at central NC terminals for the next 24
hours. Isolated MVFR fog patches are possible areawide prior to 13z,
but the risk of this at any given TAF site is very low. Otherwise,
fair skies are likely through this evening, then sct-bkn clouds
based around 8000 ft AGL topped by a veil of high clouds will spread
in from the west overnight. Surface winds will be light and
variable, except from the NW 15z-22z today, still under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 12z Sat, VFR conditions will dominate through at
least Sat evening, although an isolated shower or storm can`t be
ruled out late Sat afternoon into Sat night, and the chance for sub-
VFR conditions (mainly MVFR fog/stratus) increases late Sat night
into Sun morning. Isolated late/day showers or storms are possible
mainly W and S Sun afternoon/evening. VFR conditions are then
expected Mon/Tue as high pressure extends in from the N. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hartfield