549
FXUS62 KRAH 141809
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances aloft will combine with a stalled front over
VA to bring rounds of showers/storms through the weekend. Strong
high pressure aloft over the northwest Atlantic will build
westward into the region through early to mid next week, bringing
hot and humid conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Saturday...

*Persistence forecast with isolated flash flooding possible this
afternoon and evening

A persistent deep SWLY flow between the weakening upper trough
advancing east into the TN Valley and subtropical ridging off the
Florida coast, will maintain anomalously moist conditions across the
region with PWATs of 2-2.25" ranking in the 95-98th percentile.

The forcing mechanisms that drove convective rain chances yesterday
will provide the focus again today---1)Daytime and differential
heating within a moisten laden environment---2) Episodic PVA as weak
disturbances pass through the area--- 3)mesoscale convergence zones,
including seabreeze boundaries and residual outflow boundaries from
prior convection.

Pockets of heavy rain and isolated flash flooding remain the primary
threat. The latest 00z/14 HREF probability match mean guidance
suggests the highest risk for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
may develop across portions of the northwest and northern Piedmont
this afternoon and evening, as a band of showers and storms shift
eastward from the higher terrain. Urban areas and places with
already saturated soils---particularly across the western Sandhills
and southern Piedmont---will be more vulnerable to flooding impacts,
following rainfall of 3-4" of rainfall over the past 2 days.

While weak shear and moist lapse rates aloft will limit storm
organization, isolated pulse-type strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out.

Widespread cloud cover and rain chances will temper daytime
temperatures. Highs generally mainly in the mid 80s to upper 80s,
with a few locations warming into the lower 90s.

Storm chances will decrease through the evening and overnight hours,
though isolated showers may linger into early Sunday morning due to
deep moisture in place. Continued muggy with overnight with the
development of widespread stratus. Lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Saturday...

A weak short-wave is forecast to move across the southern
Appalachians Sunday.  A lee sfc low will develop over central NC, as
the atmosphere remains quite juicy (PWAT of 2+ inches). Mid-level
perturbations ahead of the upper wave will initiate showers and
storms over the higher terrain early Sunday afternoon. These storms
will move east over central NC later Sunday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather: SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather on
Sunday over much of central NC.  Overall though, think the risk is
relatively low given weak bulk-layer shear (maybe ~20 kts develops
across northern areas).  However, can`t rule out a stronger wind
gust from any stronger cells.

Flooding:  Given the highly anomalous PWAT and expected steep low-
level lapse rates, high rain rates appear possible Sunday. WPC has
extended their slight risk for excessive rainfall further south into
central NC.  As of now, northern areas appear to have the best
chance for flash flooding (HREF probabilities for exceeding 1 to 3
hrly Flash Flood Guidance peak at ~40 to 50 % along the NC/VA
border).  Urban areas and heavily saturated locations from previous
days rainfall will be favored for flash flooding.

Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s. Warm overnight lows in the
upper 60s/lower 70s will persist Sunday night

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 AM Saturday...

The upper pattern over the extended period will largely feature
persistent ridging through Wednesday. The ridge will break down some
Thursday/Friday as a trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic.

Still expecting decent coverage Monday and Tuesday with persistent
swly flow and anomalous moisture flux across the area. Isolated
flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening.  By
Wednesday, the Bermuda high is forecast to retrograde slightly, and
as such, the better moisture appears to shift a bit further north.
Still expecting some afternoon showers and storms, but coverage may
be a bit lower compared to prior days. The aforementioned upper
trough will push across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. This
will likely trigger afternoon showers and storms. However, flow
aloft may take on a wnwly component, and as such drier/limited
coverage may ensue.  We`ll have to monitor Thursday/Friday as some
deterministic guidance indicates perhaps a bit better bulk-layer
shear potential (ML severe outlook guidance is also hinting at the
potential for severe weather these days).

Otherwise, expect temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s for
much of the extended. Heat indices may reach near Heat Advisory
criteria middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

A series of weak disturbances embedded in the moist sw flow will
support scattered to numerous showers and storms through this
evening. A cluster of storms currently developing just upstream of
KINT and KGSO may impact most if not all of the northern terminals
per latest hi-res CAM guidance between 18z to 03z.

Overnight, conditions are expected to be mostly dry. However, MVFR
to IFR ceilings will likely develop and overspread the area as a
weak sfc boundary sags in from the north.

Sub-VFR ceilings will gradually lift and scatter from south to north
between 12 to 18z Sunday. Numerous showers and storms are expected
again Sunday afternoon and evening, particularly across the northern
terminals.

Outlook: Diurnal showers and storms will continue Monday and
Tuesday. Rain chances are expected to decrease by mid to late week
as upper level ridging strengthens over the region. Early morning
fog and low stratus restrictions will be possible each day.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH