428
FXUS62 KRAH 301056
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area today, stalling out near
the North Carolina/South Carolina border through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

A backdoor cold front currently extends from east to west across the
forecast area and should drift south of the region by the afternoon.
Today`s cool down behind the front will be minimal, with only
locations near the Virginia-North Carolina border likely to have
high temperatures more than 2-3 degrees cooler than yesterday. This
should result in highs from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. The
frontal passage itself should be dry, but a stray thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon and evening hours across
southern counties with all locations dry by midnight. Tonight`s lows
will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Today`s front will move far enough south by Sunday morning that any
further precipitation with it remains south of the area. While there
won`t be any surface features impacting the region on Sunday, an
upper level low is expected to close off over West Virginia during
the afternoon, and this should result in some scattered showers and
thunderstorms primarily across the Appalachian Mountains. The
eastern extent of precipitation appears to be across Guilford and
Davidson counties, with a 15-30% chance for rain across the Triad.
Despite the low moving southeast into Virginia, the loss of daytime
heating should bring all precipitation to an end by sunset. Despite
normal highs for the final day of August being in the mid to upper
80s, Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than today, with highs
ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

* The period of near to below normal temperatures continues.

* Highest chances for showers/storms Wednesday and Thursday.

Aloft, a longwave trough will sit over the eastern US, with a few
embedded s/w disturbances moving through the base of it through the
period. A low will drop swd out of central Canada and into the upper
MS Valley on Wed and swing slowly ewd across the wrn and nrn Great
Lakes Wed night thru Thu night as a closed low. The evolution
thereafter remains a bit uncertain as the medium-range guidance
diverges but generally speaking, the low should lift into Ontario as
a secondary s/w drops into the upper MS Valley and progresses ewd
across the Great Lakes Fri/Fri night. At the surface, with the cold
front draped W-E across FL and the nrn Gulf, high pressure will sit
over the Great Lakes and drift slowly ewd into the Northeast US
through at least Tue night, ridging swd into the area. As the high
shifts ewd and offshore Wed/Wed night, it will continue ridging swwd
into the area. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure should develop
along the front over the northeast Gulf Tue/Wed, then track newd
across nrn FL and along the Southeast US and mid-Atlantic coasts
through Thu/Fri. A cold front may approach from the west and
possibly move into the area as the low moves away Fri/Fri night. The
forecast remains mostly dry Mon and Tue, with the best chance of
showers/storms as the low lifts along the Carolina coast Wed/Thu.
Highs will generally range from the mid 70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows
should range from mid/upper 50s north to low/mid 60s south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

TAF period: Mid to high level cloudiness continues to trek across
central NC early this morning. These clouds should scatter out as
the backdoor cold front sags south into South Carolina. Still a
slight chance for a few isolated showers/tstorm near KFAY this
afternoon, but overall VFR conditions should largely prevail.
Decided to add in TEMPO groups at KINT/KGSO for stratus/fog
potential tonight. Latest guidance suggests best chances for sub-VFR
conditions to be at these sites through 12Z Sunday morning.

Outlook: An isolated shower/storm will also be possible at INT/GSO
Sunday afternoon. Dry VFR conditions are then expected Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti/Green