850
FXUS62 KRAH 261624
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1224 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rain chances remain limited until perhaps late in the period
  next weekend.

* Near-record highs possible late next week. See climate section
  for more details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1224 PM Saturday...

1) Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions into early next week.
Temperatures will gradually trend above normal by the middle of next
week, perhaps nearing record highs late in the week.

2) Overall dry weather through the period, with some signals for
increased rain chances perhaps next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1224 PM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions into
early next week. Temperatures will gradually trend above normal
by the middle of next week, perhaps nearing record highs late
in the week.

An early season Nor`easter presently offshore of the Mid-Atlantic
states will continue to retrograde northwest into New Jersey over
the next 24-48 hours. It will linger into the early part of next
week, favoring continued seasonal temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s through Monday. Tuesday is a transition day when the system
begins to exit New England.

Come midweek, high pressure ridging will build back in and promote a
warming trend to above normal highs, especially late in the week.
Late next week, guidance is indicating a return to some humid air in
the southerly return flow. Add to that, low-level thicknesses may
exceed 1420m, typical values seen in July. This should favor
mid/upper 80s to even a few low 90s in spots as we close out
next week. A few sites may get close to record highs during this
stretch.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Overall dry weather through the period, with some
signals for increased rain chances perhaps next weekend.

The pattern continues to favor dry conditions well into next week.
The latest ensemble and probabilistic guidance has slowed any onset
of unsettled weather to perhaps not until the upcoming weekend. With
ridging set to build back in midweek and some ensemble clusters
showing that pattern persisting into late next week, our rain
chances may have to wait until more appreciable Gulf moisture can
build back in sometime late Friday or even Sat-Sun next weekend. For
now, only a slight to low chance of rain is expected Fri-Sat. A
frontal system could approach late in the weekend, favoring a better
chance of unsettled weather, but the pattern is quite uncertain at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Marginal
LLWS conditions will be possible for the next few hours at RDU and
RWI until surface winds start to pick up. In the next few hours,
wind gusts are expected to start in the east. Expect northerly winds
to gust up to about 20-22 kts, with the strongest gusts expected
further east. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected for much of
the day.

Outlook: A dry/continental airmass will remain over cntl NC and
favor VFR conditions for at least the next several days.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KRDU: 89/1954

October 1:
KRDU: 90/1986

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kren
AVIATION...LH/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH