724
FXUS62 KRAH 140726
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances aloft will combine with a stalled front over
VA to bring rounds of showers/storms through the weekend. Strong
high pressure aloft over the northwest Atlantic will build
westward into the region through early to mid next week, bringing
hot and humid conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Marginal risk of flooding mainly this afternoon and evening.

Very warm and humid with mainly PM showers/thunderstorms.

The very moist conditions continue throughout the region aided by
the Bermuda high pressure essentially continuously pumping moisture
into the region. There will be areas of stratus through mid to late
morning. It is in the areas that start to have breaks in the
overcast or clear off that will have the best heating and therefore
the highest probabilities of showers and thunderstorms during peak
heating and beyond. Precipitable water values are 2 to 2.25 inches
will combine with those areas of stronger heating supporting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon
and evening with MLCapes in excess of 2000-2500 j/kg. Probably some
of the latest CAMS may have the best fit for the convective
development in general terms this afternoon. Some areas of focus for
the more robust coverage may be the northwest including the Triad
and possibly across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Timing
is even less of a confident forecast. However, late afternoon and
evening appear the most likely times of the stronger storms.

The lack of wind shear will greatly limit the severe threat to only
isolated probabilities. Thus, we are in general thunderstorms for
today. The main hazard other than lightning will be the threat of
slow moving storms. QPF may average 0.5 to 1 in the northwest
through the northeast, lesser to the south; however, some localized
2-3 inch totals may again occur with some areas being left out.

Highs today should reach 85-90, but other than RDU most areas should
stay sub-90 with all the moisture in the air. Lows tonight will
continue warm and humid with mostly 70-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Saturday...

A weak short-wave is forecast to move across the southern
Appalachians Sunday.  A lee sfc low will develop over central NC, as
the atmosphere remains quite juicy (PWAT of 2+ inches). Mid-level
perturbations ahead of the upper wave will initiate showers and
storms over the higher terrain early Sunday afternoon. These storms
will move east over central NC later Sunday afternoon and evening.

Severe Weather: SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather on
Sunday over much of central NC.  Overall though, think the risk is
relatively low given weak bulk-layer shear (maybe ~20 kts develops
across northern areas).  However, can`t rule out a stronger wind
gust from any stronger cells.

Flooding:  Given the highly anomalous PWAT and expected steep low-
level lapse rates, high rain rates appear possible Sunday. WPC has
extended their slight risk for excessive rainfall further south into
central NC.  As of now, northern areas appear to have the best
chance for flash flooding (HREF probabilities for exceeding 1 to 3
hrly Flash Flood Guidance peak at ~40 to 50 % along the NC/VA
border).  Urban areas and heavily saturated locations from previous
days rainfall will be favored for flash flooding.

Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s. Warm overnight lows in the
upper 60s/lower 70s will persist Sunday night

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 AM Saturday...

The upper pattern over the extended period will largely feature
persistent ridging through Wednesday. The ridge will break down some
Thursday/Friday as a trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic.

Still expecting decent coverage Monday and Tuesday with persistent
swly flow and anomalous moisture flux across the area. Isolated
flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening.  By
Wednesday, the Bermuda high is forecast to retrograde slightly, and
as such, the better moisture appears to shift a bit further north.
Still expecting some afternoon showers and storms, but coverage may
be a bit lower compared to prior days. The aforementioned upper
trough will push across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday into Friday. This
will likely trigger afternoon showers and storms. However, flow
aloft may take on a wnwly component, and as such drier/limited
coverage may ensue.  We`ll have to monitor Thursday/Friday as some
deterministic guidance indicates perhaps a bit better bulk-layer
shear potential (ML severe outlook guidance is also hinting at the
potential for severe weather these days).

Otherwise, expect temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 90s for
much of the extended. Heat indices may reach near Heat Advisory
criteria middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...


CIGS are expected to fall from MVFR to IFR at all terminals
through 09z, then remain 09z through 14-15z, before lifting back to
MVFR and VFR by 18z. There is a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms again this afternoon and night. A return to IFR
conditions with cigs expected again tonight through Sunday morning.

Outlook: The chance of showers and thunderstorms may peak on Sunday,
but the chance should continue Monday and Tuesday especially in the
PM hours. Late night and early morning stratus is likely. As high
pressure strengthens by mid-week, expect mostly VFR conditions and
lesser chance of PM storms.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday
  afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate
  graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at
  https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated.

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH