534
FXUS62 KRAH 172223
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
523 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle
Atlantic through Tuesday. A wavy frontal zone will then waver over
the Carolinas Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM Monday...

* Unseasonably dry, and chilly tonight

A mid/upr-level cyclone will move across Atlantic Canada and allow a
deamplifying ridge to progress ewd from the MS Valley to the OH and
TN Valleys. A srn stream, tropopause-based perturbation will outpace
the deeper layer ridge and track through it from the mid-South this
evening to the ern Carolinas by 12Z Tue.

At the surface, ~1021-1022 mb high pressure now over the lwr OH
Valley will strengthen a few millibars while migrating squarely over
the srn Middle Atlantic, including cntl NC, tonight. A related,
unseasonably dry airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the
teens today will only minimally nocturnally-recover into the teens,
with calm, tonight.

While the aforementioned srn stream perturbation will be accompanied
by a small area of cirrus and cirrostratus that will likely track
across srn and cntl NC during the late evening and early morning
hours, skies will otherwise be clear. Excellent radiational cooling
will consequently result, with low temperatures likely to range in
the upr 20s to lwr-mid 30s. These temperatures are most closely
represented by the MET statistical guidance and the NBM 5th-10th
percentile, as has been the case throughout this fall season. Those
maintaining sensitive vegetation beyond the technical end of the
growing season and RAH Frost/Freeze program should take protective
action.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

* Mostly seasonably warm temperatures.

* Rain chances Tuesday night, with generally less than 0.1 inches
  expected.

The surface high pressure will continue to shift off the mid-
Atlantic coast through the day on Tuesday. Additionally, a warm
front will move north through the CWA ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough moving through the region Tuesday night. This will allow a
band of showers to approach the region Tuesday night, however
guidance is split on how much rain will be able to be sustained into
the CWA, with some guidance showing most places in central NC mostly
dry. According to the LREF, the best location of at least measurable
rain looks to be along the US-64 corridor and north, with our far
northern counties having the best chance of approaching 0.1 inches.

During the afternoon, marginal fire weather conditions will be
possible again, mostly in the Piedmont, where gusts up to 20 mph
look possible and low RH values continue. Otherwise, temperatures
should moderate some on Tuesday with the return of southerly flow.
Highs on Tuesday look to reach the 60s, with the lowest temperatures
in the northeast and the highest temperatures in the southwest.
Temperatures overnight look to generally drop into the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

* Limited rain chances with no hazardous impacts expected

The system from Tue night will have pushed toward the coast by early
Wed, leaving behind it sunny skies to take over for most of Wed. The
frontal boundary over VA Wed may slide back south as a backdoor cold
front into Thu, leaving central NC perhaps on the cool side of the
boundary. Guidance, however, depicts the boundary slowly moving back
north during the day Thu. We look to be well in the warm sector Fri
with SW flow at the surface ahead of the weekend system.

Highs Wed-Fri are expected to range from 8 to 15 degrees above
normal in the 60s and 70s, warmest on Fri with perhaps mid to upper
70s.

The ensemble and probabilistic guidance, including AI, continue to
waffle back and forth regarding rain chances late Fri through Sat.
The wetter solutions show the shortwave trough tracking right across
central NC, while the drier solutions keep shortwave ridging in
place. Confidence remains low, and even if we do get rain, amounts
generally look under a quarter of an inch. The best chance appears
Fri night into midday Sat. There is growing agreement, however, that
another backdoor front slides down Sat night, resulting in lower
daytime highs Sun into Mon with cool high pressure. Either way, it
still looks mild with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the
40s. Some ensemble solutions bring rain chances back in Mon but the
consensus as of now keeps the area dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

High pressure and an unseasonably very dry airmass will favor VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Tue. In the surrounding flow about
that area of high pressure, an occasionally gusty wnwly this
afternoon, into the mid-upr teens kts, will become calm tonight and
swly on Tue.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible across far nrn NC
Tue night, followed by a chance of MVFR ceilings Thu morning, as a
frontal zone wavers over the region. Another frontal system will
bring a chance of showers and flight restrictions on Sat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 520 PM Monday...

After collaboration with the NC Forest Service and surrounding NWS
forecast offices, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued
for the northwest Piedmont and portions of the eastern and southern
Piedmont from 11 AM until 6 PM on Tuesday.

A portion of the previous discussion as of 1130 AM Monday follows...

The airmass will begin to modify in a developing return flow regime
by Tue, but NWP guidance are notoriously to fast with the degree of
moisture recovery. As such, minimum RH values will likely again be
critical and mostly between 20-25 percent Tue afternoon, during
which time swly winds will be strongest at 10-15 mph and most
frequently gusty to around 20 mph over the Piedmont.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...AS/MWS