945
FXUS62 KRAH 031850
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our north will extend southward through the area
today. A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and
early Thursday. This front will stall out and hold to our northwest
through Saturday, allowing warmer air to flow into the region. The
front will push into the area Saturday night and Sunday, with cooler
high pressure then returning for Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Wednesday...

An upper level trough axis will swing across the MS valley through
tomorrow morning. At the surface high pressure generally centered
over our region will shift offshore by early Thursday morning.
Energy from the mid/upper level short wave are producing areas of
showers just west of our CWA this afternoon. With the eastward trend
of the shower activity this afternoon, introduced a low end slight
chance of showers for the NW portions of Forsyth county for a few
hours late this afternoon. While cloud coverage is mainly across the
western Piedmont and Mountains, the rest of the area is mostly clear
and Sunny. Highs this afternoon will range from low 80s north to mid
80s across the south. Overnight lows will continue to trend warmer
generally around 60 degrees with a few cooler spots in the upper
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

As the upper level trough axis swings through the Mid-Atlantic
region Thursday, the upper level low remains almost stationary over
the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a frontal boundary inching
across the OH and TN valleys will slowly make it towards the
Appalachian Mountains before washing out over our region and keeping
precip to the NW. Another afternoon/evening of low end slight chance
PoPs in the forecast for portions northwestern Piedmont is expected.
A few showers and storms could make it into our region but expected
to be very isolated. SPC has portions of the NW Piedmont in a
Marginal Risk for severe storms, and while storm coverage is
expected to be limited an isolated stronger storm or two cant be
ruled out. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the low
80s NW to upper 80s across the south. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

* Above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday afternoons, before
  returning to below normal temperatures Sunday after a cold frontal
  passage.

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible over the
  weekend.

Friday and Saturday, the region will be in a WAA pre-frontal zone.
This will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s
both afternoons, however Saturday should be a degree or two warmer.
While Friday should be dry, Saturday will have a return of moisture
that may allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms,
especially in northern portions of the CWA. The cold front looks to
reach the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning, however
some guidance shows the cooler air getting stuck in the mountains,
making Sundays high temperature forecast a little unclear. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible again Sunday afternoon and
evening with the cold fropa.

Monday through Wednesday, Canadian high pressure will build back in
over the region after the passage of the cold front. This along with
a wedging regime should allow for below normal temperatures to
return. Maximum temperatures each afternoon should be in the 70s,
with low 70s in the northwest and upper 70s in the southeast.
Minimum temperatures should dip into the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Any
rain chances should be low in the east due to coastal moisture.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 248 PM Wednesday...

Mountain showers continue to spread east into the Foothills this
afternoon. Most high-res guidance fizzles out this precipitation as
it moves into our western areas, however still think -RA could show
for a few hours this afternoon at KINT/KGSO.  As we head into the
overnight hours, guidance shows a good signal for fog across the
mountains/foothills, with latest high-res guidance creeping those
lower visibilities close to KINT/KGSO. While confidence isn`t high
that these sites will go sub-VFR tonight, decided to add a tempo
group from 8 to 12Z to account for this possibility.

Otherwise, sly flow will pick up late tomorrow morning with gusts up
to 20 kts possible at all TAF sites.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday,
Friday, and again on Saturday afternoon/evening. Periods of
stratus/fog may be possible each night as well.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Luchetti