448
FXUS62 KRAH 041733
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Rainfall amounts and the potential for storms have increased
  slightly more for Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

1) Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are possible from
Wednesday night into Thursday night. Temperatures will be well above
normal through this period.

2) The chance of showers will maximize ahead of and along a cold
front on Fri, with a few thunderstorms possible especially late
morning through afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are
possible from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Temperatures will
be well above normal through this period.

A broad mid/upper trough will approach from the west through
Thursday, with an embedded weakening shortwave that moves from the
Deep South into the Southern Appalachians on Wednesday night. Deep-
layer moisture will increase with deep SW flow bringing in plenty of
Gulf moisture. PW values are modeled to be as much as 200-225% of
normal. This will result in a chance of showers beginning on
Wednesday evening/night, with the western Piedmont being the most
favored area, but the best forcing will still go to our west and
north. So forecast rainfall amounts are less than a quarter inch.

There is also a chance of showers during the day Thursday, and
isolated storms are possible given about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. But
coverage should be more isolated given a relative minimum in
forcing. Shower and storm chances increase again late Thursday night
as a more potent shortwave tracks into the lower MS Valley and a
slow-moving cold front approaches from western NC.

Due to the southerly flow ahead of the cold front, temperatures will
be very warm today and tomorrow, with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s (10-15 degrees above normal). Lows will be in the lower-to-mid-
60s.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The chance of showers will maximize ahead of and
along a cold front on Fri, with a few thunderstorms possible
especially late morning through afternoon.

The models indicate a mid/upr-level cyclone now over the cntl Great
Basin will progress ewd and reach the mid MS Valley and Mid-South by
Friday morning, then pivot ewd and across the OH and TN Valleys
Friday and the nrn Middle Atlantic and Northeast Fri night. Related
modest, 40-60 meter 500 mb height falls, and 35-45 kts of swly 500
mb flow, will overspread cntl NC on Fri, as the strongest flow and
forcing for ascent otherwise pass just to the northwest and along
the cntl Appalachians.

At the surface, a synoptic cold front that will have slowed and
possibly stalled over the southern Appalachians by early Friday will
move slowly ewd and across the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
through early Friday night, then offshore Sat morning. The front may
be preceded by a pre-frontal trough or differential heating/outflow
boundary from elevated early morning convection Fri, which may serve
as the principal focus for deeper, surface-based convection by late
morning-early afternoon. Mesoscale uncertainties regarding the
location and extent of early morning convection will have
ramifications on where subsequent convection may develop and deepen
with diurnal heating later Fri, and where the corridor of heaviest
rain may align.

Regarding that rainfall potential, there has been a slight increase
in QPF across physics-based and AI guidance and ensembles since 24
hours ago. Specifically, the 50th percentile of each in 00Z/4th
guidance depict 0.5 to 0.75" amounts, up by about a quarter inch and
what may be considered the "best guess" at this time. 10th
percentiles range from around 0.25", while 90th percentiles range
from 0.75 to 1.5", highest in EPS and GEFS guidance and lowest in
their AI counterparts. While the availability of hi-resolution,
convective allowing guidance may increase forecast confidence in
most likely amounts as time draws nearer, the aforementioned
mesoscale uncertainties will probably remain through Fri morning.

Values in forecast instability fields are also slightly higher
relative to 24 hours ago, which suggests a greater potential for
thunder mainly with the expected deeper convection from late morning
through afternoon Friday. With slightly greater instability of ~750
J/kg forecast, and amid strengthening swly flow aloft, a low-end
risk for strong to locally damaging wind gusts may result.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: LIFR Fog/stratus from this morning has scattered and
lifted. Think that most places will carry a VFR ceiling through the
afternoon into the evening hours, although some MVFR ceilings will
linger. A shortwave trough should bring showers to INT/GSO (with
more scattered coverage at RDU/FAY) along with another round of
restrictions. Although it should not be as long-lived as what
occurred this morning, the forecast calls for all terminals to at
least briefly drop to LIFR ceilings, along with MVFR/IFR
visibilities. The wind will primarily be out of the southeast
between 5-10 kt, veering to the southwest Thursday morning.

Outlook: INT/GSO may stay MVFR through Thursday afternoon, with yet
another round of IFR/LIFR ceilings forecast Thursday night into
Friday. A cold front will bring rain to all terminals, primarily on
Friday. Once rain comes to an end Friday night, dry VFR conditions
are forecast for the rest of the time period.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 4:
KGSO: 83/1946
KRDU: 84/1946
KFAY: 86/1974

November 5:
KGSO: 82/1914
KRDU: 85/2003
KFAY: 86/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KGSO: 65/2003
KRDU: 66/1977
KFAY: 67/2003

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/MWS
AVIATION...Green