368
FXUS62 KRAH 171815
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle
Atlantic through Tuesday. A wavy frontal zone will then waver over
the Carolinas Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM Monday...

* Unseasonably dry, and chilly tonight

A mid/upr-level cyclone will move across Atlantic Canada and allow a
deamplifying ridge to progress ewd from the MS Valley to the OH and
TN Valleys. A srn stream, tropopause-based perturbation will outpace
the deeper layer ridge and track through it from the mid-South this
evening to the ern Carolinas by 12Z Tue.

At the surface, ~1021-1022 mb high pressure now over the lwr OH
Valley will strengthen a few millibars while migrating squarely over
the srn Middle Atlantic, including cntl NC, tonight. A related,
unseasonably dry airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the
teens today will only minimally nocturnally-recover into the teens,
with calm, tonight.

While the aforementioned srn stream perturbation will be accompanied
by a small area of cirrus and cirrostratus that will likely track
across srn and cntl NC during the late evening and early morning
hours, skies will otherwise be clear. Excellent radiational cooling
will consequently result, with low temperatures likely to range in
the upr 20s to lwr-mid 30s. These temperatures are most closely
represented by the MET statistical guidance and the NBM 5th-10th
percentile, as has been the case throughout this fall season. Those
maintaining sensitive vegetation beyond the technical end of the
growing season and RAH Frost/Freeze program should take protective
action.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

* Moderating temperatures

* Light rain overspreads the area Tuesday night

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Midwest to the Mid-
Atlantic through Tuesday night. Surface high pressure centered over
the area will move offshore by the afternoon. This will allow a warm
front, associated with a weakening sfc wave approaching from the
west, to lift north across the area late in the day.

The day will begin with mostly sunny skies. However, a strong zone
of low and mid-level warm moist air advection will lead to
increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening. Rain is
expected to spread into the area after midnight as a ~90kt upper jet
streak and associated upper divergence overspreads the area.

With the strongest forcing and deepest moisture skirting north of
the area, measurable rain chances should largely remain confined to
areas along and north of Highway 64. Rain amounts are expected to be
light, generally 0.10" or less.

Southerly return flow will allow temperatures to moderate, with
highs back into the lower to upper 60s, warmest across the south.
Overnight lows will be mild, settling in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

As the warm front lifts early Wednesday morning rain chances will
diminish across the region. A few lingering showers across the
northern VA/NC border cant be ruled out but conditions are expected
to significantly improve early Wednesday.  Otherwise, temperatures
are expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the 70s
Wednesday-Friday and lows generally in the 50s with cooler spots in
the upper 40s some nights.

The next frontal system will move across the Mid-Atlantic region
over the weekend but is generally trending drier overall. Latest
models keep much of the rain across the north, but there are a few
outliers that keep a bulk of the rain moving across NC late Friday
night into Saturday. For now kept PoPs ranging from 20-35% late
Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Lingering moisture sticks
around Saturday evening but NBM shows Sunday to be cloudy cool and
dry.  Sunday and Mondays high temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 60s with some areas reaching 70 across the south.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Monday...

High pressure and an unseasonably very dry airmass will favor VFR
conditions in cntl NC through Tue. In the surrounding flow about
that area of high pressure, an occasionally gusty wnwly this
afternoon, into the mid-upr teens kts, will become calm tonight and
swly on Tue.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible across far nrn NC
Tue night, followed by a chance of MVFR ceilings Thu morning, as a
frontal zone wavers over the region. Another frontal system will
bring a chance of showers and flight restrictions on Sat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1130 AM Monday...

An unseasonably dry airmass will remain over cntl NC and favor
critical minimum relative humidity values mostly in the teens today.
Nwly surface winds will be weaker than Sun, however, but still
around 10 mph sustained and with occasional gusts to around 20 mph -
shy of Increased Fire Danger criteria.

While the airmass will begin to modify in a developing return flow
regime by Tue, NWP guidance are notoriously to fast with the degree
of moisture recovery. As such, minimum RH values will likely again
be critical and mostly between 20-25 percent Tue afternoon, during
which time swly winds will be strongest at 10-15 mph and most
frequently gusty to around 20 mph over the Piedmont.

Despite these very dry and critical, but only marginally gusty
conditions, the NCFS did not want to waive wind criteria for an
Increased Fire Danger statement.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS