901
FXUS62 KRAH 020732
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An in-situ cold air damming ridge will extend across the Carolinas
and Virginia today, while coastal low pressure will rapidly
strengthen while tracking along the East Coast. Cold high pressure
will follow and migrate across the Southeast, while modifying,
through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions through the rest of day, with cloud coverage
gradually increasing. Highs will run about 10 degrees below normal,
topping out in the mid-40s north to low 50s south.

Surface high pressure will shift to the northeast this afternoon and
evening continuing to filter in cool dry air. Meanwhile across the
Southeast states, a frontal boundary will lift north late this
evening and bring rain chances beginning after midnight. Another
surface low over the TN valley will be inching east with an extra
push of moisture into our region. Cold rain is mainly expected
overnight into early Tuesday as temperatures will hover just above
freezing with overnight lows ranging from 33/34 across the north to
upper 30s across the south. Ground temperatures are expected to be
to warm for any freezing but commuters should be extra cautious
overnight/ early morning with wet roads. QPF amounts for tonight
through early Tuesday morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with
greater amounts across the south and western areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

A plume of moisture ahead of an approaching upper level trough will
move across the Carolinas early Tuesday, producing widespread rain
and even moderate rain at times. By early afternoon, it will begin
to move offshore, allowing drier air to spread in from the west. At
the surface, a weakening high over New England will filter in a
wedge of cool air over central NC Tuesday morning. At the same time,
a  coastal low will track up the Carolina coast and then race toward
Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. As this low pulls away, surface high
pressure will shift over the Mid-Atlantic region with colder and
drier air behind it.

Despite the cold air in place, the pattern is not supportive of
wintry weather in central NC this time, and all precipitation is
expected to fall as cold rain. Total rainfall amounts will range
from around 0.50 inch in the northwest Piedmont to near 0.85 inches
toward the Coastal Plain, where moisture and lift will be strongest.
Storm total amounts will be 0.50 in the NW to 1.25 across the SE for
the  entirety of the event.

Temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid to upper 30s
northwest to low/mid 40s southeast, making for a chilly start. As
the rain ends and winds turn northwest, the wedge will erode,
allowing temperatures to slowly climb into the mid upper 40s and
possibly reach the low 50s in in the south east. Clear and colder
night on Tuesday as temperatures will get down into the mid/upper
20s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

* Highest chances for precipitation still Friday and Friday night,
  with lower confidence in chances Saturday through Monday.

Aloft, a s/w will track ewd from the Four Corners, across the srn
Plains and lwr/mid MS Valley on Thu/Thu night, then continue ewd
across the srn Appalachians and Carolinas on Fri. Meanwhile, the
longwave trough will remain over the Plains/Intermountain West
Thu/Thu night, as yet another s/w drops sewd from sw Canada to the
cntl Plains. This s/w may finally help the longwave trough progress
ewd across the cntl and ern CONUS Fri night through Sat night.
Central NC should be under the influence of wswly to swly flow
through at least Sat. A trailing s/w may move across the region Sun
or Mon, but model variability increases over the weekend into early
next week. At the surface, a dry cold front will move southward
across the area on Thu, with Arctic high pressure ridging swd into
the area as it moves ewd from the Midwest across the OH Valley and
into the Northeast US Thu night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
will develop over the NW Gulf Thu night, then eject newd across the
Southeast US and off the Carolina coast Fri/Fri night. The biggest
difference between the operational runs of the GFS and EC is the
strength and track of the Arctic high, which could impact
temperatures and perhaps p-types across the NW Piedmont. The low
should continue to move away from the area and out over the Atlantic
Sat/Sat night, with high pressure moving across the region in its
wake. The next low pressure system should develop over the cntl
Plains/mid-MS Valley Sat or Sat night, tracking across the region
Sun or Mon, though timing varies amongst the models.

Precipitation: Thu should generally be dry, with precipitation
expected to spread enewd across the area Thu night/Fri morning,
lingering through Fri night. While the operational EC and GFS both
generally dry out by Sat night (GFS earlier than EC), there is still
enough spread in the ensembles to hold on to slight chance through
Sat night/Sun morning. Precipitation should largely be rain, however
there is a chance for some wintry precipitation to mix in at the
beginning and possibly the end of the event. For now, confidence and
impacts remain low. Additional precipitation is possible with the
trailing s/w either Sun or Mon, but given the significant difference
in timing, will keep chances below slight for now.

Temperatures: Thu should be the warmest day of the extended period,
with highs ranging from around 50 degrees across the north to mid
50s south/SE. Low confidence in temperatures Thu night through Fri
night, as they will depend on the strength and position of the
Arctic high, track and strength of the low, and the associated
precipitation. Highs will remain below normal Fri-Mon, lowest on
Fri. Lows should generally remain near to slightly below normal,
generally ranging from mid/upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 AM Tuesday...

MVFR ceilings now over cntl NC will lower into LIFR-IFR range, as a
large shield of stratiform rain overspreads the region and becomes
moderate to heavy at times through midday or early afternoon, before
tapering off. As the rain departs, ceilings will gradually lift
through IFR-MVFR and ultimately scatter to VFR late this afternoon
or evening. Skies will then become clear overnight, as cold and dry
high pressure builds in from the west.

Outlook: Another storm system will bring a risk of flight
restrictions and rain, the latter of which may begin as a short
period of snow over the Piedmont, Fri-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MWS