789
FXUS62 KRAH 081812
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
112 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous mid and upper-level disturbance will move across VA and
NC through this evening, then offshore. Arctic high pressure will
follow and build across the region through Tuesday. The high will
settle across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low pressure
system that swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low
will move across NC Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

* No changes are planned to current headlines. A Winter Weather
  Advisory remains in effect from 7am Monday through 12pm Tuesday
  for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain
  of central NC.

* Up to an inch of snow accumulation expected, with as much 2 inches
  possible near the VA border.

* Very cold overnight lows in the teens to lower/mid 20s will allow
  leftover moisture on roadways and sidewalks to freeze, resulting
  in slippery and hazardous travel tonight through late morning/mid
  day Tuesday.

Visibilities have lifted to 1 mile or better due to the increase in
moisture and cloud cover across the area. Thus, have cancelled the
Dense Fog Advisory early.

While most of the radar returns will be virga, weak ascent from PVA
and jet-induced lift may produce non-measurable sprinkles or very
light precipitation across the far northern Piedmont through
daybreak. With near freezing sfc temperatures, a brief
period/fleeting light freezing rain is possible, though impacts
should be minimal.

An arctic cold front--currently over central TN-- will sweep SE
through the area this morning, followed by a trailing shortwave
trough through the evening. Enhanced by a weak 850 wave, WAA and
frontogenesis will support a swath of light precip spreading into
the western Piedmont after daybreak, exiting the coastal plain this
evening. QPF will range from a few hundredths across the south to
~0.20" across the northeast.

Along and north of HWY 64, precip should begin as a rain or a rain-
snow mix, before rapid column cooling supports a change-over to all
snow before ending. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
across the advisory area, highest across the northeastern Piedmont
and northern coastal plain where guidance indicates the best
potential for banding, and where snow ratios of 12:1 are possible.

South of 64, precip will fall as mostly rain with, briefly mixing
with or changing over to snow before ending. Little to no
accumulation is expected there.

Light snow/flurries will taper off across the northern/central
coastal plain between 00 to 03z. Continued strong CAA and decreasing
cloud cover will result in very cold temperatures Tuesday morning
with lows ranging from mid/upper teens north(snow ground cover) to
lower/mid 20s south. Any remaining snow or moisture on area roads
and sidewalks will freeze, producing hazardous travel overnight and
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday. . .

* Areas of black ice possible Tuesday morning

Arctic high pressure over the region will make for a cold start to
our Tue. Lingering wet/snowy roads from the Mon system will likely
mean areas of patchy black ice will be possible into the mid/late
morning hours. Mostly sunny skies should prevail for much of the day
under light winds. Highs will be well below normal in the upper 30s
over the far north, to lower 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will shift east Tue night and winds may shift slightly
from the southwest, but remain light. Lows will be cold again in the
middle 20s to around 30 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

* Gusty winds Wed with winds up to 30 mph possible

* Precipitation chances somewhat limited with a few moisture starved
  frontal systems.

* Well below normal temperatures favored for the late weekend

High pressure will shift offshore Wed. A fast-moving low pressure
system tracking across the Lower Great Lakes will create a tightened
pressure gradient across the region. Southwest winds could gust up
to 30 mph or so at times during the afternoon hours as guidance
depicts a strong low-level jet upwards of 50-kts. The pressure
gradient relaxes Wed night as a moisture starved cold front advances
through by early Thu. Precipitation chances appear very limited with
this front. Temperatures should moderate closer to average with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Cool high pressure settles over the region Thu, with highs below
normal generally in the mid 40s to near 50.

Our next system looks to arrive sometime Fri/Fri night when a warm
front lifts north across the Carolinas. This will be ahead of
another potentially strong Arctic cold front that tracks through
sometime Sat-Sun, ushering in much below normal temperatures with
highs possibly in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the teens to
low 20s. For the warm front Fri, ensemble guidance is largely dry,
with moisture and lift somewhat lacking. However, if it were to
trend wetter, we could not rule out a rain/snow mix. Confidence in
that scenario, however, is not high at the moment. The Arctic front
Sat into Sun appears right now as a dry passage, with impacts mainly
centered around very cold temperatures as wind chills could be in
the lower teens Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Monday...

A precipitation shield now blossoming across cntl and ern NC will
include ongoing snow at INT/GSO and a transition to snow at RDU and
RWI in the next couple of hours. While the predominant precipitation
type at FAY will be a cold rain, a mix with snow will be possible
for a few hours around and shortly after sunset. Otherwise, a mix of
IFR-MVFR restrictions in both ceilings and visibility restrictions
will lower a category on average through late this afternoon-early
this evening, lowest and longest at RWI, then gradually lift through
MVFR overnight and scatter to VFR Tue morning. Nely surface winds
will also be at least occasionally gusty, as the MSL pressure
gradient tightens between deepening low pressure off the coast of
the Carolinas and Arctic high pressure that will build south across
the region tonight.

Outlook: VFR. Low-level wind shear will be possible, especially over
the Piedmont, Wed morning, followed by the development of a strong
and gusty swly surface wind with daytime heating/mixing through Wed
afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...MWS