502
FXUS62 KRAH 101825
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
125 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low will swing across the Great Lakes today. A trailing
cold front, moisture-starved east of the Appalachians, will move
across central and eastern NC tonight. High pressure will follow and
build across the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

* Windy conditions will develop ahead of a dry cold front

An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough currently over the Upper
Midwest and embedded within a broader long wave trough, will dive
eastward across the southern Great Lakes and into the mid-Atlantic
Northeast through this evening and tonight. At the surface, an
accompanying surface low will drag a moisture-starved cold front
through central NC this evening and overnight.

The primary weather impact will be the development of windy
conditions within the pre-frontal regime. As daytime heating
commences and the boundary layer deepens, downward momentum transfer
will tap into a 40-45 kts LLJ, allowing some of the stronger winds
to mix down to the surface. By mid to late morning, sustained winds
of 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts between 25 to 35 mph,
occasionally reaching 35 to 40 mph at times. Residents should secure
loose outside items, including holiday decorations.

Skies will be variably cloudy, consisting of mainly mid and high
level clouds streaming across the area. Temperatures will moderate
closer to seasonable normals, with highs ranging from near 50 north
to mid 50s south.

Following the dry cold frontal passage this evening and tonight, CAA
will ensue. Skies will clear and gusts will diminish. Overnight lows
will fall into the lower 30s north to mid 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

* Dry with well below normal temperatures

A long wave trough and broad cyclonic NW flow aloft will remain
established over the Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure
extending from the lower MS Valley will build into SE US,
reinforcing a dry and stable airmass across central NC.

Residual low-level CAA early Thursday will keep temperatures well
below normal. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs will only reach the
the lower/mid 40s north to upper 40s south, approximately 8 to 12
degrees below normal. Winds will be notably lighter than Wednesday,
with sustained NWLY winds of 5 to 10mph, accompanied by modest
gustiness into the teens.

Thursday night, the surface high shifts overhead, allowing winds to
decouple. Increasing high clouds may temper radiational cooling
somewhat; however lows are still expected to fall into the mid to
upper 20s across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Wednesday...

* Main story in the extended is much below normal temperatures Sun
  night and Mon, with wind chills early Mon in the single digits to
  teens

On Fri, a clipper system will track across the lower OH valley and
into VA during the afternoon and evening. Pretty good WAA will build
over the region as a warm front lifts north. We would not be
surprised if some virga or light precipitation exists across our far
northern counties. But as the system looks right now, most of the
energy is situated in VA so the main influence we will see is
increasing cloud cover. Highs should top out in the mid 40s N to low
50s S.

More seasonal temperatures arrive on Sat in the wake of the Fri
system with low 50s N to upper 50s in the south.

A strong Arctic cold front is still forecast to advance through the
region Sunday evening, with cold high pressure in its wake on Mon.
This front will largely pass through dry as NW downslope flow favors
the best rain chances on the windward side of the Appalachians.
However, the AI-GFS and AI-ECMWF are wetter than most ensemble
members. For now, we kept a dry forecast in line with the model
consensus, but would not be surprised if some isolated showers were
around during the day Sun.

Well below normal temperatures will build behind the Arctic front,
with mid teens to low 20s Mon morning and highs then in the mid 30s
to around 40. Wind chills Mon morning could dip into the single
digits to teens. Temperatures should moderate by Tue with highs back
into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...

While VFR conditions are forecast through the 18Z TAF period, a band
of light precipitation (mostly virga) and ceilings as low as 4-7
thousand ft will overspread cntl NC this evening, ahead of a
vigorous mid/upr-level trough. Strong and gusty swly surface winds
will otherwise prevail with afternoon heating, then diminish after
sunset. They will do so while an unseasonably strong low-level jet
will remain overhead, with an associated risk of low-level wind
shear or mechanical turbulence tonight. Occasional nwly gustiness
will be possible on Thu, strongest and most likely from 14-17Z.

Outlook: A band of snow and flight restrictions will accompany a
warm front across VA Fri morning, the srn periphery of which may
clip INT and GSO with low VFR to MVFR ceilings and a period of light
snow or flurries in the several hours centered around 12Z Fri.
Strong and gusty nnwly surface winds will result behind an Arctic
cold front Sun afternoon and evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MWS