644
FXUS62 KRAH 141722
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1220 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through
Saturday. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area from
the north on Sunday, then settle to our south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Friday...

* Continued dry today, with a few clouds mainly NE late today into
  tonight.

We`ll stay in a NW mid level flow today, between a deep low over the
Canadian Maritimes and ridging centered over NE Mexico, as surface
high pressure analyzed just to our W over the Mid South slowly
settles over GA and SC through tonight, with a weak lee trough over
W NC. A dry and fairly stable column remains in place, so apart from
a little orographically enhanced cirrus over the NE early this
morning, we should see plenty of sunshine through at least early-mid
afternoon. An area of mid clouds now noted on satellite imagery
extending from the western U.P. of MI into NE KY and associated with
a warm front aloft will shift E and SE, bringing additional mid
clouds starting this afternoon and continuing through much of
tonight, mostly over our NE half. But we`ll still see plenty of
insolation today, and with surface winds not nearly as blustery as
previous days and near-normal thicknesses, it should feel rather
pleasant with seasonable temps as highs will be generally from the
mid 60s to near 70. Expect fair skies tonight, except partly cloudy
NE, and low temps not far from normal, upper 30s to mid 40s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

* Dry, breezy, and warm.

The surface high will settle over FL Sat, placing us in a low level
WSW WAA pattern with a tightening MSLP gradient, and a continued
northwesterly mid and upper level flow. With the surface high
elongated westward over the N Gulf and E of the Bahamas, we`ll be
cut off from any low level moisture source, so despite steadily
rising dewpoints into the 40s Sat and low 50s Sat night, we should
stay dry, albeit with an increase in clouds as a mid level
perturbation tracks SE through the Mid Atlantic region late Sat into
Sat night. Low level thicknesses are projected to be around 25-30 m
above normal, supporting mild highs in the low-mid 70s, followed by
much above normal lows in the mid-upper 50s Sat night as we maintain
a southwesterly breeze overnight. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

On Sunday morning, low pressure will be over New England with a cold
front extending southwest into Virginia and farther west back into
the southern Plains. The cold front will move through on Sunday, but
with minimal moisture, no precipitation is forecast. The winds will
be gusty, as high as 20-30 mph. Behind the cold front, high pressure
will briefly take over across the southeastern United States Monday,
but another wave is expected to move over Tennessee and Virginia
Tuesday. The best chance of rain still appears to be to our north,
but the ECMWF/EPS is trending wetter towards the GFS/GEFS solution,
which has consistently shown more precipitation over North Carolina.
Wednesday and Thursday should then be dry, with the GFS/ECMWF
diverging on the timing of the next system - the GFS is faster than
the ECMWF with low pressure moving to the east.

There is high confidence that Sunday will be the warmest day out of
the next seven, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the upper
70s. Lows on Sunday night will be 15-20 degrees colder than the
night before as a result of the cold front, dropping anywhere from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Next week, highs should be in the upper
50s and 60s, while lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will hold across central NC through the next 24
hours, with little more than sct to briefly bkn mid and high clouds
over the area. There is a chance for low level wind shear conditions
tonight after 04z as a ~30 kt W jet shifts over the area, mainly
affecting RDU/RWI, but uncertainty is too high to include in the
TAFs at this time. Surface winds will be under 10 kts from the NW or
N shifting to SW late today.

Looking beyond 12Z Sat, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all
sites through Monday, with a chance for sub-VFR conditions to
develop on Tue. LLWS is possible Sat night, and surface winds will
be gusty Sun, perhaps leading to mechanical turbulence. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield