422
FXUS62 KRAH 190642
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal surface trough and cold front will push through the
region this afternoon and evening. Bermuda high pressure will
strengthen off the Carolina coast this weekend, then extend westward
over the Mid-Atlantic states next week bringing the season`s first
extended heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

*A band of strong to severe storms expected to move west to east
across the area this afternoon and evening.

*Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, with isolated large
hail possible.

*Localized flash flooding can`t be rule out due to recent wetness

A vigorous northern stream mid-level trough extending from the Great
Lakes region south through the MS VAlley will move into the Eastern
US through tonight. This trough will propel a cold front through the
Carolinas during the evening and overnight hours. In advance of the
front, strong diurnal heating featuring high temps in the upper 80s
to lower/mid 90s , deep mixing, and muggy dewpoints in the lower 70s
will help destabilize the atmosphere with moderate to strong MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2500 J/KG expected across much of central NC.
A 30-40kt LLJ and mid-level flow around 40-50kt will support the
threat for organized severe storms.

Storms are expected to cross the mountains around midday and into
the western Piedmont 18 to 21z, forming into a broken line and
potentially becoming more organized as the band progresses eastward
through the remainder of the evening, before exiting the
eastern/coastal plain zones between 03 to 06z. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary hazard, with isolated large hail possible with
any embedded supercells. Brief heavy rain may also cause minor
flooding, especially in urban and poor-drainage areas.

In the wake of the front, cooler and drier air will begin filtering
in, with skies clearing west to east. Overnight lows ranging from
mid 60s north to lower 70s south.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Friday: The aforementioned cold front that is expected to move across
the area today into tonight will shift to the east of the area and
stall/dissipate near the coast on Friday. This will result generally
dry conditions, with only a slight chance of showers/storms across
our far southeast (closer to the stalled frontal zone). High temps
are expected to be two to four degrees cooler than today, but dew
points should fall back into the 60s. This will result in heat index
values of around 10 degrees or more lower compared to today values.
Expect high temperatures will generally range from around 85-90
degrees across the area.

Friday night: Surface high pressure will remain over the area Friday
night, allowing for dry conditions and low temps ranging from the
mid to upper 60s to near 70 across central NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

* A dangerous heat wave is expected late this weekend into next week.

Dangerous heat will build across the region this weekend into next
week as surface high pressure shifts offshore and extend into the
area, while a strong mid/upper level ridge is forecast to build over
the region. This will result in generally dry conditions, although
we could see some isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms by
next week. The big issue during this time frame will be the heat,
with dangerous heat expected for by late weekend through the
remainder of the forecast period. High temperatures are expected to
be in the lower to mid 90s for Saturday, with mid to upper 90s, to
near 100 in spots, Sunday through Wednesday. This will result in
heat index values the upper 90s to lower 100 for Sunday, with heat
index values ranging from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in the
NW Piedmont to 100 to 108 degrees elsewhere for the remainder of the
forecast period. This combined with the prolonged nature of the heat
and overnight lows only falling into the lower to upper 70s will
result in the development of a dangerous heat wave across the area.
Heat Advisories will likely be needed next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 108 AM Thursday...

VFR conditionS are expected overnight with dry conditions prevailing.
A 30-40 kt LLJ moving through the region may lead to marginal LLWS
concerns overnight.

After daybreaks, southwest winds will increase, becoming sustained
at 12 to 15 kts, with gusts to 22-28 kts ahead of an approaching
cold front.

A line of showers and storms is expected to track west to east
across the region between 18 to 03z, resulting in periods of sub-VFR
restrictions, mainly due to reduced VSBYs. Some of the strong storms
could produce wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts. This convection should
exit the eastern terminals by 06z Friday.

After 06Z Friday: Drier weather and prevailing VFR conditions are
expected Friday through early next week as strong high pressure
builds across our region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Weather Records/Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 18      75 (1935)      73 (2018)       76 (2017)
June 19      73 (2018)      77 (1970)       77 (2017)

June 21      75 (1933)      75 (1924)       84 (1928)
June 22      78 (1933)      75 (1981)       84 (1928)
June 23      78 (2024)      74 (2024)       77 (2024)
June 24      76 (2024)      76 (2015)       79 (2010)
June 25      77 (2010)      75 (2015)       75 (1952)

Weather Records/Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 21      101 (1933)      100 (1933)     105 (1933)
June 22      100 (2022)      100 (1914)     101 (1990)
June 23      100 (2024)      102 (1914)     102 (1981)
June 24       99 (2010)      103 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 25      100 (1952)      101 (1914)     102 (1914)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office in
Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update to our
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) computer
system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate weather and
water information, and to send life-saving information, such as
weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive and
requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the evening hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate products
for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup offices at
NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of forecast
products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected
during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only from
AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

  Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
  Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
  Ellerbe (WNG 597 - 162.400 mhz)
  Garner (WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
  Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
  Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
  Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
  https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions to
Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH
EQUIPMENT...RAH